670
FXUS61 KOKX 081205
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
705 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes through the area today into this evening.
High pressure builds in tonight and lingers through early
Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night. A frontal system
will impact the area Sunday night through Monday. High pressure
from the Great Lakes builds in Monday night through Wednesday.
The high moves northeast away from the region Wednesday night.
A complex frontal system then moves in for Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the most recent observations.
High pressure begins to nose into the area today with sunny
skies and dry conditions. A cold front will approach from the
northwest and move through the area late in the afternoon and
into the evening. An increasing pressure gradient over the area
will allow initially westerly winds to increase in speed to
10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph during the late
morning and afternoon. These gusty winds in addition to low RH
values will allow for the increased risk of fire danger. As
such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire area
through the day. High temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 60s today.
The cold front moves through by this evening, allowing for a
shift to a northwesterly flow with gusts increasing a bit into
the overnight. Strong CAA will allow temperatures to drop into
the 30s for much of the area, with the exception of the NYC
metro, but due to low dew points and a strong wind, frost
formation is not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure begins to slide overhead on Saturday which
will promote continued dry conditions but relaxing wind as the
pressure gradient lessens as the high moves overhead.Temperatures
will be much cooler, only in the low to middle 50s for Saturday.
Radiational cooling is expected to be fairly widespread for
Saturday night as winds become light overnight. Low temperatures
are expected to drop into the low 30s and upper 20s for much of
southern Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley as well as
portions of Suffolk County on Long Island. While there are no
headlines currently in effect, a Frost Advisory or Freeze
Warning may be needed for portions of the area that have not yet
ended their growing season (mainly immediate coastal zones).
High pressure continues to slide overhead into Sunday and
gradually shift offshore during the day. Return flow on the
backside of the high pressure will allow for temperatures to
rebound into the upper 50s and low 60s once again. A potent
frontal system will approach from the west late in the day on
Sunday with widespread light rainfall expected to overtake much
of the area from west to east around sunset. Rain showers
continue to move across the area Sunday night into Monday with a
quarter to a half inch of rain expected, the first decent
rainfall we`ve had in over a month. Ahead of and just behind the
cold frontal passage should be fairly gusty as the pressure
gradient tightens, with initially S winds 10-15 mph with gusts
to 25 mph shifting to W on Monday at similar speeds. Any
residual showers end Monday morning with skies becoming clearer
and conditions drier by Monday afternoon. Highs Monday will be
in the middle to upper 60s once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast setting Monday night, zonal upper level jet
across Southern US, undulating northern upper level jet across
northern US. Mainly zonal flow across local region Monday night into
Tuesday.
Rossby wave moving from Eastern Pacific into Western US early into
midweek with strong associated jet streaks. Downstream ridge
amplifies across local region Tuesday night through midweek. Trough
moves into the local region Thursday into Thursday night.
Ridge moves offshore and trough moves in from the west Thursday into
Thursday night but the trough could potentially weaken, getting
deamplifies as it moves in. It is here, that forecast uncertainty
increases as the degree of amplification of the trough has wide
variations comparing different operational models.
At the surface, area will be behind a departing cold front Monday
night. High pressure then builds in from the Great Lakes thereafter
through midweek. High pressure slides farther northeast of the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. A complex frontal system moves
in from the west Thursday through Thursday night. There may be some
offshore cyclogenesis as indicated by some models by just like for
the features aloft, these surface features also have a lot of
associated uncertainty with large differences between operational
models in positions and magnitudes of MSLP and precipitation.
In terms of surface forecast conditions, dry conditions expected
Monday night through Wednesday and an increasing chance of rain
Wednesday night. The chance for rain remains Thursday and Thursday
night.
Regarding temperatures, relatively warmest day of the long term is
forecast to be Tuesday, when forecast high temperature reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the region. Forecast high
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday are closer to normal.
Forecast lows warmer than normal forecast Monday night and Wednesday
night, with Tuesday night and Thursday night lows closer to normal.
Followed the NBM for temperatures overall but did smooth out lows
near Westhampton NY for overnight lows as forecast conditions will
not promote efficient radiational cooling.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves across the region this afternoon. High pressure
builds back into the area for tonight into Saturday.
VFR and dry conditions expected through the TAF period.
Light westerly winds near 5 to 8 kts this morning increase to
10-15 kt late this morning and continue through the rest of the
TAF period. Some gusts 15-20 kt develop this morning. Gusts up
to 20-25 kt expected late this morning through the rest of the
TAF period as well. Gusts highest late this afternoon into this
evening when some peak gusts to near 30 kt will be possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Start time of gusts could be 1-2 hours off from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Tonight: VFR. NW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, decreasing
towards daybreak Saturday.
Saturday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt, with gusts 15-20 kt, mainly
early. Wind gusts diminish by late in the day.
Sunday: VFR into the afternoon, then becoming MVFR with a chance of
rain late. MVFR or lower in rain at night. SW winds near 10 kt
with gusts 15-20 kt.
Monday: MVFR with rain early, eventually becoming VFR. Lowering
chance of rain during the morning, ending in the afternoon. SW-W
winds near 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts mainly during the
day.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds near 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts
mainly during the day into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA is in effect for all waters as an tightening pressure gradient
will result in increasing winds this afternoon into this evening.
All waters will see gusts 25-30kt this afternoon and through
tonight. A stray gust upwards of 35kt isn`t entirely ruled out,
especially for the eastern ocean, but is not expected to be
widespread or frequent enough for a Gale Warning at this time. Wave
heights will also be 5-6 feet on the ocean zones.
Sub-SCA conditions take hold late Saturday as the wind relaxes and
wave heights fall. A return to SCA conditions is likely for the
ocean zones Sunday night into Monday with the approach of a frontal
system that moves through the area. Sheltered waters may see gusts
approach 25kt, but confidence in reaching SCA thresholds is higher
on the ocean at this time. There may be some lingering 5 ft
ocean seas Monday night but otherwise, conditions are forecast
to remain below SCA thresholds Monday night through Tuesday
night across the forecast waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The pressure gradient begins to increase through the day which will
lead to increasing westerly winds that may gust between 25-30 mph
(winds aloft at low levels look to be around 35 kts) and lead to
lower humidity values between 25% and 35% in the afternoon under
mostly sunny skies. These conditions will lead to increased risk for
fire danger, with a Red Flag Warning in place for the entire CWA.
Winds will reach their peak following the frontal passage before
winding down towards daybreak on Saturday as the pressure gradient
relaxes and high pressure starts to move in. The risk of fire danger
lowers tonight, despite persistent winds, as relative humidity
values rise to 50-70%.
For Saturday, min RH 20-30% and NW winds gusting 15-20 mph
expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through mid next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST
Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW