532
FXUS61 KOKX 082047
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
347 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A dry cold front passes through the area this evening. High
pressure builds in Saturday and lingers through early Sunday
before moving offshore Sunday night. A frontal system will then
affect the area Sunday night into early Monday. High pressure
follows through Wednesday, then another storm system moves in
late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Northern stream shortwave approaches New England this afternoon,
and pivots through tonight. At the surface, a dry cold front crosses
the region this afternoon into evening, with strong high pressure
building into the eastern Great Lakes tonight.
The cold front moves through by this evening, with a shift to gusty
northwesterly flow of 25 to 35 mph continuing much the overnight,
before subsiding towards daybreak. Strong CAA will allow
temperatures to drop into the 30s for much of the area, with the
exception of the NYC/NJ metro (lower 40s-45). Mixed low-levels
will inhibit frost/freeze conditions tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Northern stream shortwave slides east Sat morning, with shortwave
ridging building in Saturday Night. At the surface, high pressure
to the west gradually builds overhead Sat aft into evening.
Main concerns will be fire weather related. Mostly sunny, drought
conditions, sub 30% RH values, and frequent 20-25mph gusts likely
til about midday for LoHud/NE NJ/NYC and into early to mid afternoon
for LI/S CT. Red Flag Warning has been extended until Saturday
6pm for entire area to address this continue elevated fire
weather risk.
Otherwise, slightly below seasonable temps in the lower to mid 50s
as heart of Canadian airmass overhead slides east and moderates
through the day.
Good radiational cooling conds likely Sat Night under high pressure.
Temps likely drop into the lower to mid 20s across far outlying
areas of the interior and LI pine barres, with upper 20s to mid 30s
likely for much of the remainder of the area, except lower 40s for
NYC/NJ metro. Freeze watch has been issued for coastal Westchester,
southern CT, and Suffolk County for Sat Night where sub-freezing
temps are possible and growing season continues for a few more
days.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will be shifting farther out to sea through the day on
Sunday. As low pressure moves east through the Great Lakes, a
leading warm front will push through the forecast area Sunday night,
quickly followed by a cold front Monday morning. Expecting a quarter
to half inch of rainfall Sunday night into early Monday, with dry
weather to follow for most of Monday. Sunday`s high temperatures
will run a few degrees above normal, with even warmer temperatures
for Monday. Went a couple of degrees above NBM for Monday given a
westerly flow behind the cold front, noting the progged temps at the
top of the mixed layer.
The dry weather continues for Tuesday and Wednesday with high
pressure in place. The next chance of rain then arrives Wednesday
night, with better chances Thursday and Thursday night. This will be
due to another low pressure system, but global models differ
regarding the location of its main circulation. Given that there`s
at least agreement for a decent upper trough to swing through the
region, have increased PoPs to 50 percent with this system. So far
it appears that there is a good chance that much of Friday is dry
for most of the area, but still maintained chance PoPs in the
forecast for most of the area given model disagreement.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front moves south of the region by early this evening.
High pressure then builds in from the west through Saturday
afternoon, settling overhead by Saturday evening.
VFR with dry conditions through the TAF period.
Westerly winds around 15 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt were gradually
shifting to the NW with the approach, and passage, of a cold front.
Gusts occasionally will be 30-34 kt as the front moves through. Late
tonight winds then become northerly with both sustained and gusts
diminishing into Saturday morning.
Timing of the wind shifts and diminishing winds will be dependent on
how quickly high pressure builds into the region.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional higher gusts of 30-34 kt are possible through 02Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: VFR. NW/N winds 10-15 kt, with gusts 15-20 kt,
mainly early afternoon. Winds diminish to around 10 kt with gusts
ending by late afternoon.
Sunday: VFR into the afternoon, then becoming MVFR with a chance of
rain late. MVFR or lower in rain at night with rain.
Monday: MVFR with rain ending during the morning, eventually
becoming VFR. W-SW winds 10 to 15 kt, gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts ending
after sunset.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds near 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts mainly
during the day into early evening.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A SCA is in effect for all waters into early Sat AM for NW gusts 25-
30kt. Isolated gusts to 35kt possible for the ocean waters
(particularly east of Moriches Inlet) tonight, but is not expected
to be widespread or frequent enough for a Gale Warning. NW ocean
wind waves expected to build to 5-6 feet in response, and
continue at 3 to 5 ft on central and eastern LI sound into
tonight.
Sub-SCA conditions return from w to e Saturday morning into
afternoon as high pressure builds over the waters with winds and
wind waves relaxing.
SCA conditions likely re-develop for the ocean zones Sunday
night into Monday with the approach of a frontal system that
moves through the area. Sheltered waters may see gusts approach
25kt, but confidence in reaching SCA thresholds is higher on the
ocean at this time. There may be some lingering 5 ft ocean seas
Monday evening but otherwise, conditions are likely to remain
below SCA thresholds Monday night through Wednesday night across
the forecast waters. The only exception would be some northerly
25 kt gusts on the ocean waters during parts of Tuesday
afternoon and night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Red Flag Warning for elevated fire danger has been extended through
6pm Saturday for the entire area based on anomalously dry/drought
conditions, meteorological conditions and coordination on
available fuels with fire officials/land managers.
Specifically, westerly winds between 25-30 mph and humidity values
ranging between 25% and 35% continue into early evening.
RH values moderate into the 40-60 percent range overnight but winds
will peak (30-35 mph) following the frontal passage this evening
into tonight, gradually subsiding towards daybreak Saturday.
NW winds gusts likely to increase once again Saturday morning to the
20 to 25 mph range across the areas, with RH values dropping to 30
percent by late morning. NW 20 to 25mph gusts likely till at least
midday for LoHud/NYC and into mid afternoon for LI.
Winds and gusts subside Saturday aft into eve from w to e as high
pressure builds overhead.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions have developed across the area per
US Drought Monitor. Streamflows are generally below the 25th
percentile of normal for this time of year. There are no
other hydrologic concerns through mid next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for CTZ005>012.
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for CTZ009>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for NYZ211>213.
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV