262
FXUS61 KOKX 101206
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
706 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually shifts offshore today as a frontal system
approaches from the west, moving through the area tonight into
Monday. High pressure then builds in again for the middle of the
week and then slowly moves northeast farther away from the
region Wednesday night into early Thursday. Weakening low
pressure moves in thereafter for Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night. Low pressure will be east of the region Friday
into Saturday with high pressure to the west of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
account for the most recent observations.
A freeze warning remains in effect this morning with near freezing
or sub-freezing temperatures for coastal CT as well as Central and
Eastern LI. Ongoing brush fires in portions of northern NJ and the
LoHud Valley may continue to produce smokey or hazy conditions
for the nearby area today, especially into the afternoon as SW
winds increase. The NYS DEC has issued an Air Quality Health
Advisory for NYC, Rockland and Westchester until midnight
tonight for the fire on the border of Orange and Passaic
continues. Additionally, an SPS is in effect for New York zones
for enhanced fire weather concerns continuing. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect today for southern Connecticut as
well.
High pressure overhead will gradually shift offshore today with an
approaching frontal system making its way into the area. an
increasing SW flow this afternoon will advect moisture into the area
ahead of the cold front. The column begins to saturate with mid-
level moisture moving in from the west by late afternoon and
evening. Eventually, light rain is expected for much of the area
into the overnight and into early Monday morning. Overall, a quarter
to a half inch of rainfall is expected.
The NYS DEC has issued an Air Quality Health Advisory for NYC,
Rockland and Westchester until midnight Sunday night for the
fire on the border of Orange and Passaic continues.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The frontal system continues to push through the area on Monday with
any residual rain showers ending by noon for much of the area. Winds
will still likely be gusty from the west into the afternoon with a
tight pressure gradient over the area. Efficient mixing of the BL in
addition to partly cloudy to mostly clear skies should allow for a
decent amount of warming at the surface. Temperatures are expected
to rise into the middle to upper 60s for much of the area, anywhere
from 10-15 degrees above average. A secondary cold front pushes
through during the evening and overnight Monday, allowing for a more
NW flow and associated CAA.
As the NW flow continues into Tuesday, high pressure begins building
in from the west. Another mostly clear and dry day is expected with
a tight pressure gradient remaining overhead. This will result in
breezy NW winds at 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph. This may
once again provide for conditions favorable for enhanced fire
spread, depending on how quickly fuels can dry out from the rainfall
a few days prior. Highs Tuesday are expected to be closer to
average, generally in the 50s. CAA will allow temperatures to drop
into the 30s for much of the coastal area and possibly upper 20s for
the interior northern portions of the CWA Tuesday night, but
continued brisk conditions overnight likely won`t allow for much
radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Aloft, region in a ridge for midweek, weakening for Thursday as a NW
to SE oriented trough moves in. Main jet stream energy stays well
south of the region with the trough with trough itself weakening for
Thursday into Friday. Ridging returns going into the start of next
weekend.
At the surface, high pressure from SE Canada builds in Wednesday and
then slowly departs farther northeast of the region Wednesday night
into early Thursday.
A weakening low pressure area with associated frontal system then
approaches, moving across Thursday into Thursday night.
Weakening system with a lack of moisture will make for limited
rain with POPs only reaching chance. Airmass expected to stay
warm enough considering the timing of this event to keep
precipitation type rain. Some models are showing mainly dry
conditions for Thursday into early Friday.
Low pressure is expected to be offshore Friday into start of next
weekend with high pressure eventually expected to build back into
the region.
Mainly dry conditions are anticipated much of the long term.
Temperatures not expected to deviate much from normal values.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system approaches today into tonight with a cold front
passing through early Monday.
VFR conditions expected today but tonight MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected as rain overspreads the region. Some localized reductions
of category to below IFR will be possible. There is a low chance
for rain showers late this afternoon but most shower activity is
expected tonight. In addition, there is potential for brief
localized LIFR tonight into early Monday.
Winds are expected to initially be variable direction with wind
speeds near or less than 5 kts. Winds then expected to become SW and
increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning into
this afternoon. SW winds of near 10-12 kt are expected for
tonight. Gusts are more occasional for this evening but expected
to get more frequent late tonight as the front gets closer.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Start time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from TAF. Start time of
MVFR and IFR could also be 1-3 hours off from TAF. Some fluctuation
between categories are possible tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: MVFR with rain ending during the morning, becoming VFR. SW-W
winds 10 to 15 kt, gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts diminishing after sunset.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds near 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, becoming
more northerly at night. Gusts decrease closer to 20 kt in the
evening before diminishing late at night.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower with rain in the afternoon and at
night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions this morning. Winds increase ahead of a frontal
system approaching from the west this afternoon and into Monday. SW
winds of 10-15 kt with gusts upwards of 25-30kt develop across all
waters tonight beginning at first with the ocean, eventually
expanding to all waters overnight into early Monday. Increased wind
will also allow for higher wave heights of greater than 5 feet on
the ocean.
SCA level wind gusts of 25-30 kt continue for all waters Monday
morning before gradually diminishing from NW to SE with sub-SCA
winds expected for all waters by Monday afternoon. Wave heights on
the ocean will still be above 5 feet so SCA likely to continue
through at least Monday night. Winds pick up once again as the
pressure gradient tightens Monday night and into Tuesday. Gusts
of 25-30kt are possible for all waters once again so SCA are
likely late Monday night through at least Tuesday night.
Forecast seas stay below SCA criteria Wednesday through Thursday
night. Some possible SCA gusts on the ocean early Wednesday
with otherwise sub-SCA wind gusts Wednesday through Thursday
night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect for southern CT with an SPS for NYC,
Lower Hudson Valley, and LI zones. Winds increase again today ahead
of a frontal system. By the afternoon, winds will be sustained 10 to
15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Min RH values will be around 30 to
40 percent. A wetting rainfall expected for the first time since
late September for tonight and early Monday morning, along with
higher RH. A quarter to a half inch of rainfall is expected.
Dry conditions with minimum RH 25-35% likely for Tues and Wed, with
NW winds also gusting up to 25 mph on Tues as well. Min RH looks to
be higher later in the week (45-55%) with lighter winds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions have developed per US Drought
Monitor. Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of
normal for this time of year. There are no other hydrologic
concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ078>081.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ071-177-179.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for NYZ067>075-
176-178.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NJZ104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday
for ANZ331-335-338.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
for ANZ332-340-345-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday
for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW