773
FXUS61 KOKX 102345
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
645 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure shifts further offshore as a frontal system
approaches from the west, moving through Monday morning. High
pressure then builds in through midweek. A weakening frontal
system will approach from the west on Thursday while an ocean
storm develops near the Canadian Maritimes. This storm will
remain well to the northeast from Friday into Saturday with high
pressure remaining to the west. The high should build in on
Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure offshore shifts further out in the western
Atlantic as a frontal system approaches from the west, impacting
the region tonight into Monday.
Increasing SW flow late this afternoon continues to advect moisture
into the area ahead of the frontal system. Thickening cloud deck
ahead of this. Conditions remain dry through everywhere thru
remainder of the day, before light rain develops and overspreads
the region from west to east this evening. Timing from latest
hi res CAMs and surface obs indicate the rain should get into
the LoHud Valley toward 22Z, NYC and surrounding areas by 00Z,
and points east by 3Z. The rain continues into the overnight,
generally tapering around daybreak and shortly thereafter. QPF
will be modest; ensemble members clustered around a few tenths
of an inch. Given the exceptionally dry antecedent conditions,
the rain will be beneficial in this respect, and the most across
the region since late September.
Also of note, ongoing brush fires in portions of northern NJ and the
LoHud Valley will continue to produce smokey and hazy conditions in
these areas. The NYS DEC has issued an Air Quality Health Advisory
for NYC, Rockland and Westchester until midnight tonight for the
fire on the border of Orange and Passaic continues. A similar
advisory was hoisted for most of NE NJ, with the exception of
western Passaic. Additionally, an SPS is in effect for New York
zones for enhanced fire weather concerns continuing. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for southern Connecticut as well until 6
pm this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Rain tapers in the early morning hours as the front begins to exit
offshore, with the entire area dry by mid morning or so. Breezy NW
flow persists into the afternoon, gusts up to 30 or 35 mph possible,
especially early in the day. Overcast skies to start largely clear
by early afternoon.
Once conditions dry out, the breezy westerly flow in the afternoon
may send a fresh plume of brush fire smoke into portions of
Rockland, Westchester, and Fairfield counties depending on the
nearby fire activity. Added a mention for patchy smoke in these
areas. A well mixed BL up to 850 mb will help temperatures climb
into the upper 60s across much of the forecast area, or 10 to 15
degrees above normal for mid November.
Secondary cold front approaches late, moving through the region dry
overnight. The reinforcing boundary shifts the flow NW and drives
cooler, drier air back into the region heading into Tuesday as high
pressure begins to return. Winds into Tuesday morning won`t allow
temperatures to bottom out as low as otherwise, though still likely
falling into the 40s for most.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions will most likely continue into the weekend, along
with brisk NW winds on Tuesday.
* Cooler temps from Tue through Fri should moderate to above normal
by the weekend.
A mostly sunny and brisk day expected on Tue with the area between
low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the
upper Great Lakes, leading to fire wx concerns (see Fire Weather
section for details). Ridging at the sfc and aloft should then build
overhead Tue night into Wed night, with dry wx continuing but with
diminishing winds.
The ridging aloft should weaken Wed night into Thu as it gets
pinched off between a developing closed low over the western
Atlantic and an upper trough approaching from the west. The bulk of
the forcing with the western trough should dive SE toward the
southern Mid Atlantic coast, with weak low pressure developing just
E of the Carolinas, with the associated frontal system weakening on
approach to the area and yielding no more than 20 PoP Thu into Thu
evening. Dry conditions should prevail thereafter, with area once
again caught between offshore low pressure and inland high pressure
Fri into Sat. The high should eventually build in on Sunday as this
short-lived block breaks down and upper ridging also approaches from
the west.
Near normal temps Tue through Thu (with highs mostly in the 50s, but
likely not making it out of the 40s well inland Wed/Thu) should warm
up to above normal by the weekend, from the mid 50s inland to the
lower 60s in the NYC metro area and across Long Island. Meanwhile,
lows Tue night could be sub freezing everywhere except in and just
outside NYC and out by Montauk as brisk NW-N wind ushers in a cold
air mass. Temps Wed night may not be much warmer, with sub freezing
temps still likely just about everywhere except for the NYC metro
area and Long Island.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front approaches tonight and moves through the area Monday
morning.
MVFR conditions develop quickly this evening, with most terminals
going to IFR towards midnight or shortly thereafter. Some localized
reductions to LIFR will be possible for the pre-dawn hours towards
or just before the start of the morning push.
SW winds of near 10-12 kt take place tonight with gusts more
occasional late this evening, but expected to get more frequent late
tonight as the front gets closer. Gusty conditions remain for much
of Monday with westerly winds mainly 10-15 kt and gusts up to 25 kt.
The gusts subside late in the afternoon and early evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR and IFR conditions may be delayed by an hour or two late this
evening. Some fluctuation between categories are possible tonight.
Also, the start of another round of gusts later tonight may be off
by +/- 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 0Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt early, then increasing late
towards the predawn hours 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds near 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, becoming
more northerly at night. Gusts decrease closer to 25 kt in the
evening before diminishing late at night.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Potentially MVFR in slight chances of rain.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all local waters tonight
thru at least Monday afternoon. SW winds of 10 to 15 kt with
gusts upwards of 25 to 30 kt develop, first on the ocean this
evening, expanding to all waters overnight into early Monday.
Increased wind will also allow wave heights to build between 5
and 9 ft on the ocean.
Westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt persists on all waters Monday
morning before gradually diminishing from NW to SE by late
Monday afternoon. Wave heights on the ocean remain above 5 ft
however, and the SCA will likely need to be extended through at
least Monday night. Winds pick up once again as the pressure
gradient tightens Monday night and into Tuesday.
SCA cond expected for all waters Tue into Tue evening with NW-N flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and ocean seas 4-7 ft. A few minimal gale force
gusts may even occur Tue evening on the far ern ocean waters S of
Montauk. Conds then quickly improve, with 25-30 kt gusts only on the
ocean and the ern Sound/bays late Tue night, and on the ocean
E of Moriches Inlet (along with 4-6 ft seas) Wed morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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The Red Flag Warning for southern CT and the SPS for NYC, the Lower
Hudson Valley, and LI zones has been allowed to expire with a
wetting rainfall moving in and rising RH levels. A wetting
rainfall up to a half inch is expected for the first time since
late September tonight into Monday morning, which should help to
lower the fire spread threat some for Monday.
Tue will be a day of concern, with RH 25-35%, and NW winds gusting
to 25-30 mph inland and 30-35 mph in the NYC metro area and along
the coast in the afternoon. Wed afternoon should feature similar RH
but with N-NE winds only 5-10 mph. For the rest of the week,
slightly less dry cond expected with min afternoon RH 35-45%, along
with NW winds around 10 mph on Fri and 10-15 mph with gusts to 20
mph on Sat.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions have developed per US Drought
Monitor. Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of
normal for this time of year. There are no other hydrologic
concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for NYZ067>075-
176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EST this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday
for ANZ331-335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ332-340-345-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/MW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR