031
FXUS61 KOKX 120540
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1240 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front moves through the region tonight. Strong
high pressure from the Great Lakes builds in Tuesday through
Wednesday before departing away from the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. A weakening frontal system will approach from the
west on Thursday while an ocean storm passes well to the east
and moves into the Canadian Maritimes. This storm will then
remain over the Canadian Maritimes into Monday as another high
builds into the region Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A band of light reflectivity moving across Orange County. This
was captured by some CAMs, with ARW depicting the reflectivity
the best compared to OKX radar reflectivity. Put in a slight chance
to chance for rain showers, mainly for Orange County NY before
06-07Z. This is ahead of that secondary cold front which is set
to cross through the region NW to SE overnight. For the rest of
the region, mainly dry conditions prevail as the front will not
have much moisture associated with it and NW gusty winds will
bring in drier air, likely making for evaporation of rain before
it reaches the ground.
Potentially more rain showers could develop behind this with
the strength of the upper level trough and associated positive
vorticity advection towards daybreak Tuesday. However, forecast
models project these showers to stay north and west of the
forecast region. Keeping a dry forecast for the local region
after 07Z.
A shortwave trough digs south as it swings east overnight,
sending a secondary cold front through the region.
Winds increase overnight once again as the front clears and
high pressure begins to return from the west. CAA in the flow
will begin to filter in a cooler regime for the next several
days.
Temperatures overnight fall back into the 40s for most of the
region, or around 50 in NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Upper trough axis over the region shifts offshore on Tuesday as
a strengthening 1032 mb surface high builds east into the Great
Lakes. The tightened pressure gradient between it and the departing
frontal system will allow for a blustery day.
Much drier air advects into the region with the resultant NW flow.
Skies largely clear, and abundant sunshine prevails. Given expected
afternoon RH values near 30%, along with frequent gusts 30 to 35
mph, conditions appear favorable for rapid fire spread once again.
See Fire Weather section further down for additional detail.
With the CAA, 850 mb temperatures fall to near 0C, and will lead to
a chillier day than recent for the Tri State, with highs into the
low to mid 50s. Subsidence inversion expected to set up Tuesday
night and winds decouple, especially inland. The clear sky and
lightening winds should help temperatures tumble to some of the
coldest values so far this season, particularly around NYC.
Overnight lows are progged in the 20s and 30s, with most outside
the urban metro falling below freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather continues through much of the extended period with only
slight chances of precipitation across portions of the region
Thursday night through Friday night.
Temperatures below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday
and Saturday, and 5 or more degrees above normal Sunday and Monday.
With the NBM handling the weather rather well, with little deviation
from the deterministic, and with most parameters similar to the
previous forecast, have mainly followed the NBM. Only deviation was
for winds and gusts during the northwest and north flow regimes
Saturday and Monday as high pressure builds into the region. There
is a chance that low temperatures Wednesday night will be lower than
forecast, especially across the interior, as winds become light to
near calm, and with good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies.
Continue to mention frost for Wednesday night with these conditions.
Precipitation across western portions of the region Thursday night
into Friday will be associated with a weakening frontal system, and
little to no precipitation may fall, as forcing is weak, and weakens
as the system passes to the southwest. And to the east,
precipitation will be associated with an offshore low that
retrogrades into the Canadian Maritime under a weakening Omega
block.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A secondary cold front moves across the terminals overnight,
followed by strong high pressure building in from the Great Lakes
region on Tuesday.
VFR through the TAF period.
A secondary cold front passes through (06z-08z) and increases the
winds and shifts them to the NW. Sustained speeds of 15-20 kt with
gusts 25-30 kt are then expected into Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Some peak gusts around 35 kt are possible. The gusts are expected to
remain into Tuesday evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertainty around the magnitude of peak gusts, around 35 kt gusts
possible Tuesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late Tuesday night: VFR. N winds gradually diminishing overnight
with gusts ending.
Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower Thursday Night
near the coast.
Friday-Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible Friday and NW
wind gusts 20-25 kt possible Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds pick up once again later tonight into Tuesday with the
passage of a secondary cold front. NW flow with gusts 25 to 30
kt on all waters tonight thru at least Tuesday evening.
Small Craft Advisory in place for all local waters, with the
ocean already in effect, and non ocean waters beginning at 6Z
tonight. Possible gales on the ocean into Tuesday night but
confidence in frequent 35 kt gusts remains a bit too low to
warrant a Watch with this update. Maintained a mention of this
possibility in the HWO. Seas up to 6 ft on the ocean as well
through this period.
There is the potential that wind gusts will be at SCA levels on
the eastern Long Island Sound and eastern Long Island bays,
along with SCA gusts and seas on the ocean waters east of Fire
Island Inlet Wednesday morning as high pressure builds in the
from the west. With the high building over the waters during
Wednesday conditions are expected to fall below advisory levels
Wednesday afternoon. This will be dependent on how quickly the
high builds over the forecast waters, and SCA conditions may
linger on the far eastern ocean waters into Wednesday night.
Otherwise, winds and seas will be below advisory levels on the
waters into late Friday. Late Friday into early Saturday there is
the potential for marginal SCA conditions on the eastern ocean
waters as northwest winds and gusts increase as offshore low
pressure passes to the east.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty NW winds on Tuesday up to 35 mph in the afternoon will couple
with lowering RH values near 30% and drying fuels to once again
increase the risk of rapid fire spread should ignition occur.
After collaboration from our neighboring offices and state partners,
hoisted a Red Flag Warning for all of southern CT and NY zones thru
6 pm Tuesday. A Special Weather Statement was utilized for northeast
NJ zones where RH values may be slightly higher.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions have developed per US Drought
Monitor. Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of
normal for this time of year. There are no hydrologic concerns
through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...JE/JM/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET