okx-afd on 2024-11-12

332
FXUS61 KOKX 122104
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Strong high pressure builds in from the west tonight, and
overhead Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure remains
over the region Thursday as a weakening frontal system passes to
the southwest Thursday and Thursday night as an ocean storm
passes well to the east and moves into the Canadian Maritime.
High pressure builds in from the west Friday and Saturday as the
storm remains over the Canadian Maritimes into Monday, with
another weak system passing to the north. High pressure returns
Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Upper ridging builds in from the west tonight, with strong high
pressure sliding from Ontario into Quebec, and nosing down the
east side of the Appalachians.

Clear skies and dry conditions with tight pressure gradient
remaining well into tonight between high and offshore low with
N/NW gusts 25 to 30 mph. Mixed low-levels will limit radiational
cooling potential, upper 20s across interior and pine barrens,
with 30s most elsewhere. This does appear to be the coolest
night of the fall season for the NYC/NJ metro though, with lows
in the mid 30s. Growing season continues for the NYC/NJ metro
areas, but mixed low-levels will inhibit frost/freeze
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Ridging builds in surface and aloft during this period.

Sunny and dry conditions on Wed. Wind gusts to 15 to 20 mph
likely in the morning, then likely mainly CT/LI Wednesday
afternoon, with relative humidity values falling into the 25 to
30 percent range. Another day for enhanced brush fire spread
potentially. Subsidence inversion will limit mixing depth,
holding temps several degrees below seasonable in the upper
40s/lower 50s.

Good radiational cooling conds Wed night for far outlying areas,
with lows in the teens across far outlying interior and pine
barrens, mid 20s to lower 30s for much of the remainder of the
areas, except mid 30s for NYC/NJ metro. Growing season
continues for the NYC/NJ metro areas, presenting potential for
freeze conditions for southern Nassau County late Wed
Night/early Thu AM.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mostly dry conditions will continue through the extended period with
only slight chance of precipitation across portions of the area
Thursday night into Friday night and again Sunday night into Monday.
Little precipitation, less than a tenth of an inch, is expected
with these rain events.

Temperatures will be near 5 degrees below normal Thursday, and then
return to above normal for Saturday through Tuesday. No record
temperatures are likely to be broken or tied.

The forecast remains rather consistent the passed couple of days,
and generally followed the NBM and the current forecast through the
extended period. Once again the only deviations were for winds and
gusts during northerly flow regimes to increase both, leaning toward
the 75th and 90th percentiles, and also lowered dewpoints during the
northwest flow periods.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region with its
center passing north into Wednesday morning.

VFR through the TAF period.

N-NW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt early this evening
diminishing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25kt later tonight. The
gusts are expected to remain into midday Wednesday.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts to 35 kt are possible into the early evening for NYC
airports and points east.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower Thursday
Night near the coast.

Friday-Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible Friday and NW
wind gusts 20-25 kt possible Saturday.

Sunday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA in effect for all forecast waters through tonight. Occasional
gales gust threat continues through this evening.

Then on Wednesday, a gradual decrease of winds is expected from NW
to SE Wed AM, with ocean seas quickly following suit. Sub-SCA
conditions expected to return to all water Wed aft, although
marginal 25 kt gusts possible across ocean waters east of
Moriches Inlet.

There is the potential for marginal SCA conditions on the ocean
waters east of Fire Island Inlet from Thursday through Sunday
morning with a combination of northwest wind gusts being near 25
kts at times, and seas fluctuating near 5 feet with an easterly
long period swell from offshore low pressure passing well to
the east and moving into the Canadian Maritime. Seas and winds
diminish below SCA levels during Sunday as high pressure builds
into the waters from the over the west. Winds and seas remain
below advisory levels through Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --Breezy and dry conditions continue into this evening, with
continued drought conditions. Minimum RH of 25 to 30 percent
with frequent wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue through
this afternoon. Red flag warning continues for the entire local
forecast region including NE NJ, NYC, Lower Hudson Valley,
Southern CT and Long Island till 6PM this evening.

Northwest wind gusts will remain in the 25 to 35 mph range
through this evening, only gradually diminishing late tonight to
15 to 20 mph range. Relative humidity will naturally go up
tonight, to 50 to 60 percent range by daybreak Wednesday.

Wind gusts to 15 to 20 mph likely areawide Wed morning, then mainly
S CT/LI for the afternoon, with relative humidity values falling
into the 25 to 30 percent range. Increased brush fire spread
potentially for Wednesday.

Dry conditions persist into Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
expected to range from 30 to 40 percent. However, winds will be
generally less than 10 mph from the northeast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions continue per US Drought Monitor.
Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of normal
for this time of year. There are no hydrologic concerns through
early next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --With an upcoming full moon on November 15th, astronomical tidal
levels will be on a rising trend. Tidal departures needed for
minor flooding will be lowering to as little as a couple of
tenths to 1/2 ft by Friday/Saturday.

Developing offshore low pressures and high pressure over the NE
coast mid to late week will result in a persistent northerly
flow and resultant Ekman effects, as well as a period of backed
NE flow Wed/Thu and 3-4 ft long period easterly swells. This
will bring an increasing chance for coastal flooding during the
late night/AM high tides Wed into this weekend.

Potential for minor coastal flooding with high tide cycles for
late Wed Night early Thursday AM, especially within the South
Shore Bays, lower NY Harbor and Western LI Sound shorelines.
This threat will likely increase into Saturday AM with tidal
piling and full moon, with potential for localized coastal
flooding increasing as well.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ211>213.
Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for NYZ179.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MET/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV