123
FXUS61 KOKX 122354
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
654 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds in from the west tonight, and
overhead Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure remains
over the region Thursday as a weakening frontal system passes to
the southwest Thursday and Thursday night as an ocean storm
passes well to the east and moves into the Canadian Maritime.
High pressure builds in from the west Friday and Saturday as the
storm remains over the Canadian Maritimes into Monday, with
another weak system passing to the north. High pressure returns
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for current conditions, with no significant changes.
Upper ridging builds in from the west tonight, with strong high
pressure sliding from Ontario into Quebec, and nosing down the
east side of the Appalachians.
Clear skies, with dry conditions, and a tight pressure gradient
remain well into tonight between high pressure and offshore low
pressure. Mixed low-levels will limit radiational cooling
potential, upper 20s across interior and pine barrens, with 30s
most elsewhere. This does appear to be the coolest night of the
fall season for the NYC/NJ metro though, with lows in the mid
30s. Growing season continues for the NYC/NJ metro areas, but
mixed low-levels will inhibit frost/freeze conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging builds in surface and aloft during this period.
Sunny and dry conditions on Wed. Wind gusts to 15 to 20 mph
likely in the morning, then likely mainly CT/LI Wednesday
afternoon, with relative humidity values falling into the 25 to
30 percent range. Another day for enhanced brush fire spread
potentially. Subsidence inversion will limit mixing depth,
holding temps several degrees below seasonable in the upper
40s/lower 50s.
Good radiational cooling conds Wed night for far outlying areas,
with lows in the teens across far outlying interior and pine
barrens, mid 20s to lower 30s for much of the remainder of the
areas, except mid 30s for NYC/NJ metro. Growing season
continues for the NYC/NJ metro areas, presenting potential for
freeze conditions for southern Nassau County late Wed
Night/early Thu AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mostly dry conditions will continue through the extended period
with only slight chance of precipitation across portions of the
area Thursday night into Friday night and again Sunday night
into Monday. Little precipitation, less than a tenth of an inch,
is expected with these rain events.
Temperatures will be near 5 degrees below normal Thursday, and
then return to above normal for Saturday through Tuesday. No
record temperatures are likely to be broken or tied.
The forecast remains rather consistent the passed couple of
days, and generally followed the NBM and the current forecast
through the extended period. Once again the only deviations were
for winds and gusts during northerly flow regimes to increase
both, leaning toward the 75th and 90th percentiles, and also
lowered dew points during the northwest flow periods.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region with its
center passing north into Wednesday morning.
VFR through the TAF period.
N-NW winds around 15kt with gusts to around 25 kt this evening
diminishing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25kt later tonight. The
gusts are expected to remain into midday Wednesday, with winds
aob 10kt aft 18-20Z.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night-Thursday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower
Thursday Night near the coast.
Friday-Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible Friday and NW
wind gusts 20-25 kt possible Saturday.
Sunday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to winds and seas with this update.
SCA in effect for all forecast waters through tonight.
On Wednesday, a gradual decrease of winds is expected from NW
to SE Wed AM, with ocean seas quickly following suit. Sub- SCA
conditions expected to return to all water Wed aft, although
marginal 25 kt gusts possible across ocean waters east of
Moriches Inlet.
There is the potential for marginal SCA conditions on the ocean
waters east of Fire Island Inlet from Thursday through Sunday
morning with a combination of northwest wind gusts being near 25
kts at times, and seas fluctuating near 5 feet with an easterly
long period swell from offshore low pressure passing well to
the east and moving into the Canadian Maritime. Seas and winds
diminish below SCA levels during Sunday as high pressure builds
into the waters from the over the west. Winds and seas remain
below advisory levels through Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Breezy and dry conditions continue into this evening, with
continued drought conditions.
Red flag warnings have been extended into Wednesday early
evening, 600 PM EST, for Southern Connecticut, New York City,
and Long Island. Special Weather Statements have been issued for
the Lower Hudson Valley, and Northeastern New Jersey through
Wednesday early evening, 600 PM EST.
Northwest wind gusts will remain in the 20 to 30 mph range early
this evening, and gradually diminish late tonight to 15 to 20
mph range. Relative humidity will naturally go up tonight, to 50
to 60 percent range by daybreak Wednesday.
Wind gusts to 15 to 20 mph likely areawide Wed morning, then mainly
S CT/LI for the afternoon, with relative humidity values falling
into the 25 to 30 percent range. Increased brush fire spread
potentially for Wednesday.
Dry conditions persist into Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
expected to range from 30 to 40 percent. However, winds will be
generally less than 10 mph from the northeast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions continue per US Drought Monitor.
Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of normal
for this time of year. There are no hydrologic concerns through
early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an upcoming full moon on November 15th, astronomical tidal
levels will be on a rising trend. Tidal departures needed for
minor flooding will be lowering to as little as a couple of
tenths to 1/2 ft by Friday/Saturday.
Developing offshore low pressures and high pressure over the NE
coast mid to late week will result in a persistent northerly
flow and resultant Ekman effects, as well as a period of backed
NE flow Wed/Thu and 3-4 ft long period easterly swells. This
will bring an increasing chance for coastal flooding during the
late night/AM high tides Wed into this weekend.
Potential for minor coastal flooding with high tide cycles for
late Wed Night early Thursday AM, especially within the South
Shore Bays, lower NY Harbor and Western LI Sound shorelines.
This threat will likely increase into Saturday AM with tidal
piling and full moon, with potential for localized coastal
flooding increasing as well.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ212-213.
Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/IRD
MARINE...MET/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...