okx-afd on 2024-11-13

726
FXUS61 KOKX 131229
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through Sunday, however
an area of low pressure in the western Atlantic will move NW
and reach the vicinity of the southern Canadian Maritimes on
Friday. The low then meanders there through Monday as a cold
front moves through. High pressure then returns Tuesday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is mainly on track with temps and dewpoints
adjusted for the next few hours based on the latest trends.

Ridge axis aloft slowly shifts in from the west through the period
with surface high pressure in place. Northerly winds may still gust
up to around 20mph this morning, otherwise winds will be lighter
this afternoon. Sunny with high temperatures around 5 degrees colder
than normal - only near 50 for coastal areas and upper 40s inland.

Clear for tonight, and with winds probably decoupling inland with
light to calm winds, good radiational cooling conditions. Mixed low
levels should however limit radiational cooling for the NYC/NJ metro
where the growing season continues, so not expecting much frost.
Have decided to convert the Freeze Watch in southern Nassau County
to a Warning with just enough coverage of freezing temperatures as
cold air advection would be sufficient in spite of a mixed boundary
layer.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridge remains in place through the period. It will
however be weakened by and area of low pressure shifting southeast
from the southern Great Lakes Region to the Mid-Atlantic coast
Thursday into Thursday night. In addition, a stronger low over the
western Atlantic retrogrades toward Nova Scotia Friday into Friday
night. Looks like any precip from both systems will stay out of the
forecast area, but we`ll be left with broken to overcast mid-high
level clouds through at least Friday morning. After another day of
high temperatures around 5 degrees below normal on Thursday, a
return to normal highs for Friday. Low temperatures for Thursday
night are expected to be warmer than tonight with the clouds around,
so no Freeze Watch for southern Nassau County.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly dry conditions will continue through the extended period with
high pressure building in Saturday. The center of the high shifts
south of the area on Sunday as ridging occurs aloft. The next chance
for precipitation may come on Monday as a cold front moves through.
However, it appears to be moisture starved, and most area look to be
dry, with only a slight chance for rain showers expected across Long
Island and coastal CT. High pressure builds in for Monday night into
Tuesday. Above normal temperatures are expected Saturday through
Tuesday, but they are not expected to be excessively so.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region with its center
north of the region into Thu.

VFR through the TAF period.

N to NE around 10 kt today, with gusts of 15 20 kt this morning.
Thereafter, winds of 10 kt less are expected through the rest of
the TAF period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

There may be a lull in gusts through daybreak.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR.

Friday-Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible Friday and NW
wind gusts 20-25 kt possible Saturday.

Sunday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
SCA remains on the ocean zones and eastern LI Sound. Chance
that they could be canceled earlier than posted for all but the
ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. Have actually extended the
SCA here for the rest of the afternoon as gusts to 25kt and 5ft
seas probably continue well into the afternoon. Marginal
advisory conditions are currently forecast east of Moriches
Inlet tonight and Thursday, but this is based solely on wave
heights, and not currently confident enough that more than half
of the zone will have 5ft+ seas. Sub-advisory conditions
otherwise continue through Friday night.

SCA continue for Saturday with winds gusts up to 25 kt, mainly on
the ocean waters. Seas on the ocean waters start off at 4 to 5 ft,
but are expected to slowly diminish through the day. Seas and winds
diminish below SCA levels during Sunday as high pressure builds into
the waters from the over the west. Winds and seas remain below
advisory levels through Monday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag warnings continue through 600 PM EST this evening for
Southern Connecticut, New York City, and Long Island. Special
Weather Statements have been issued for the Lower Hudson Valley, and
Northeastern New Jersey for the same period.

Anticipating wind gusts of mostly 15 to 20 mph likely across the
entire area this morning with some gusts up around 25 mph. Winds
then diminish for the afternoon, but remain generally stronger over
S CT/LI. Relative humidity values will fall into the 25 to 30
percent range this afternoon. This combination will enhance the
chance of brush fire spread.

Dry conditions persist into Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
expected to range from 25 to 35 percent. However, winds will be
generally less than 10 mph from the northeast.

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions continue per US Drought Monitor.
Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of normal
for this time of year. There are no hydrologic concerns through
early next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --With an upcoming full moon on November 15th, astronomical tidal
levels will be on a rising trend. Tidal departures needed for
minor flooding will be lowering to as little as a couple of
tenths to 1/2 ft by Friday/Saturday.

Developing offshore low pressures and high pressure over the NE
coast mid to late week will result in a persistent northerly
flow and resultant Ekman effects, as well as a period of backed
NE flow Wed/Thu and 3-4 ft long period easterly swells. This
will bring an increasing chance for coastal flooding during the
late night/AM high tides tonight into this weekend.

Potential for minor coastal flooding with high tide cycles for
late tonight/early Thursday AM, especially within the South
Shore Bays, lower NY Harbor and Western LI Sound shorelines.
This threat will likely increase into Saturday AM with tidal
piling and full moon, with potential for localized coastal
flooding increasing as well.

With tidal departures expected to be around a foot for southern
Nassau, southern Queens, much of the rest of NYC, southern
Westchester, southern Fairfield, and northwestern Suffolk, have
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for late tonight into early
Thursday morning. Minor coastal flooding is expected, with
locally moderate flooding possible.

Manhattan, the rest of Suffolk county, along with the rest of
southern CT are only expected to touch or exceed a couple of
tenths of a ft of minor thresholds, so Coastal Flood Statements
were issued for these locations. Locally, half a foot to a foot
of inundation is possible.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ009.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ212-213.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 7 AM EST Thursday for
NYZ074-075-178-179.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for
NYZ179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 7 AM EST Thursday for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...