okx-afd on 2024-11-14

142
FXUS61 KOKX 140533
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1233 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in northeast Canada provides dry weather through
this coming weekend. A weak area of low pressure exits the coast
of the Carolinas on Friday, but will move southeast towards
Bermuda while a more robust low pressure system moves towards
Nova Scotia by Saturday. A dry weekend for the tri state area
with a low chance of a light shower late Sunday night/early
Monday morning as a weak front pushes through. High pressure
with dry conditions follow into the middle part of next week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The fcst is on track. A strong area of high pressure is located
in northeast Canada and is influencing our weather. For tonight
will feature mainly clear skies and light northeast winds, this
should allow for many areas to radiate and cool off into the
20s and low 30s. The NYC metro should hold steady in the
mid/upper 30s. Some high clouds can be seen on current satellite
imagery moving towards the area from the west. The thinking is
anything quicker will not reach western portions of the area
until late tonight.

A Freeze Warning continues for southern Nassau County so please be
sure to bring in and/or cover up sensitive/non-native plants.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Another quiet weather day across the region with high pressure as
the dominant weather feature. That said, clouds increase from west
to east late morning and through the afternoon as shortwave energy
pushes east into northeast PA and NJ. While we need precip, the
PWATs are fairly low, at most 60% of normal. Sky cover becomes
mainly cloudy later in the day and continues into the overnight
hours.

Below normal highs in the middle and upper 40s is about the
best that we can manage. Normal highs are low and mid 50s. Given
the added cloud cover the overnight lows are not as cold, but
are near normal with lows in the 30s, with the NYC metro near
40F.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather conditions Friday through the upcoming
weekend with slightly above normal temperatures for mid-
November. Then temperatures trend closer to normal by Tuesday
into mid next week. Surface high pressure retreats north Friday
and a weak area of low pressure exits off the coast of the
Carolinas. This low pressure system is expected to move away
from the coast towards Bermuda, the steering of this system is
linked to a more robust low pressure system off the coast of
Nova Scotia, known as Fujiwhara effect. While we need the rain,
the region is too far removed to receive any measurable
rainfall. A front moves across the region late Sunday night into
early Monday morning, at best a slight chance for a spot
shower. A quick look at DESI - there are very low probs of 0.1",
generally less than 5% across the region. Surface high pressure
remains in control Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure centered over Quebec will ease northeastward
through Fri.

VFR with NE winds at or below 10kt through around 06Z Fri, then
becoming NW.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Tonight: VFR.

Friday - Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt possible.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR with strong NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Marginal advisory conditions are currently forecast east of
Moriches Inlet tonight and Thursday, but this is based solely on
wave heights, and not currently confident enough that more than
half of the zone will have 5ft+ seas. Sub- advisory conditions
otherwise continue through Friday night.

SCA continue for Saturday with winds gusts up to 25 kt, mainly on
the ocean waters. Seas on the ocean waters start off at 4 to 5 ft,
but are expected to slowly diminish through the day. Seas and winds
diminish below SCA levels during Sunday as high pressure builds into
the waters from the over the west. Winds and seas remain below
advisory levels through Monday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions persist into Thursday, with minimum relative
humidity expected to range from 25 to 35 percent. However, winds
will be generally less than 10 mph from the northeast. An SPS
has been issued for southern CT for elevated fire weather
concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions continue per US Drought Monitor.
Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of normal
for this time of year. There are no hydrologic concerns through
early next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --With an upcoming full moon on the 15th, water levels will be on the
rise. Tidal departures needed for minor flooding will be as little
as a couple of tenths to 1/2 ft by Friday and Saturday.

Developing offshore low pressures and high pressure over the
Northeast coast mid to late week will result in a persistent NE flow
into Thu evening and 3-4 ft long period E swell. This should cause
minor coastal flooding during the early AM high tides from Thu into
at least Sat. Flooding could be moderate in spots along the south
shore of Nassau Thu and Fri.

Most of the coastline is now under a coastal flood advisory for the
Thu AM high tide cycle, with widespread inundation of 1/2 to 1
ft above minor flood thresholds (1.5 to 2.5 ft above MHHW)
expected. Flooding along the SE CT coastline, on the north fork
of Long Island and in Peconic Bay, also also the more sheltered
Great South Bay locations of Suffolk, looks to be only spotty,
with inundation mostly below minor thresholds but still 1 to 2
ft above MHHW, so limited to the most vulnerable spots right
along the shoreline.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon EST
today for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon EST
today for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST this morning for
NYZ072-074-075-081-178-179.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST this morning for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...