okx-afd on 2024-11-14

593
FXUS61 KOKX 141156
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
656 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region through Sunday. A cold
front then moves through during Monday with high pressure
returning for Tuesday. A complex frontal system may impact the
area towards the middle of next week.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The forecast is mainly on track. Only hourly temps and dewpoints
for the next few hours were adjusted with this update.

Deep-layered ridging over the region keeps us dry today. Broken to
overcast mid-high level clouds will be around however as an area of
low pressure shifts SE from the southern Great Lakes Region to the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Highs mostly 45-50, which is about 5 degrees
below normal. The clouds will help prevent temperatures tonight from
falling as low as they had this morning, as well as limit any frost
potential. Lows ranging from the mid 20s for the outlying areas to
the upper 30s for NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We remain primarily under the influence of high pressure while a low
pressure system meanders in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes.
The low will however produce breezier conditions than today. Dry
through the period with daytime highs near normal on Friday, and
around 5 degrees above normal for Saturday.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly dry conditions will continue through much of Wednesday. The
center of the high shifts south of the area on Sunday as ridging
occurs aloft. The next chance for precipitation may come on Monday
as a cold front moves through. However, it appears to be moisture
starved, and most area look to be dry, with only a slight chance for
rain showers expected across Long Island and coastal CT. High
pressure builds in for Monday night into Wednesday morning. The next
chance for more widespread measurable precipitation comes towards
the middle of next week as low pressure over the center of the
country moves toward the region with its associated warm and cold
fronts. Deterministic models are dry through next Wednesday night,
but a fair amount of the GEFS members show precipitation coming in
earlier than what the deterministic GFS has, pointing to a
potentially more progressive pattern than what is being advertised
in the deterministic models.

Above normal temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday, but
they are not expected to be excessively so.

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure centered over Quebec will ease northeastward through
Fri.

VFR with NE winds at or below 10kt through around 06Z Fri, then
becoming NW.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday - Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt possible.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR with strong NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Marginal advisory-level waves are currently forecast on the
ocean waters - mainly this morning. No SCA here however 5 ft
seas should be covering less than half of any of the 3 ocean
zones as NE winds will limit the fetch for most of the area.
Sub-advisory conditions otherwise continue through Friday
afternoon. NW winds increase Friday night with gusts to 25kt+ on
the ocean, lasting through Saturday night as the pressure
gradient tightens over the waters.

Seas and winds below SCA levels Sunday as high pressure builds into
the waters from the west. Winds and seas remain below advisory
levels through Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry conditions persist today, with minimum relative humidity values
expected to range from 25 to 35 percent. However, winds will be
generally less than 10 mph from the northeast. An SPS has been
issued for southern CT for elevated fire weather concerns.

Red Flag Warnings, or at least additional special weather
statements, may eventually be needed for Friday as gusts 20-25
mph will be possible along with minimum relative humidity values
of 20-25 percent. Similar conditions are anticipated for
Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions continue per US Drought Monitor.
Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of normal
for this time of year. There are no hydrologic concerns through
early next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an upcoming full moon on the 15th, water levels will be on the
rise. Tidal departures needed for minor flooding will be as little
as a couple of tenths to 1/2 ft by Friday and Saturday.

Offshore low pressure combined with high pressure over the Northeast
coast late this week will result in a persistent NE flow into this
evening and 3-4 ft long period E swell. This should cause minor
coastal flooding during the morning high tides from today through
least Saturday. Flooding could be moderate in spots along the south
shores of Nassau and Queens this morning and Friday morning. Minor
flooding is even anticipated for tonight`s high tide cycle for these
two zones, while isolated minor flooding is still possible for a few
other locations tonight.

Most of the coastline is now under a coastal flood advisory through
the Fri AM high tide cycle, with widespread inundation of 1/2 to 1
ft above minor flood thresholds (1.5 to 2.5 ft above MHHW) expected.
Flooding along the SE CT coastline, on the north fork of Long Island
and in Peconic Bay, also also the more sheltered Great South Bay
locations of Suffolk, looks to be only spotty, with inundation
mostly below minor thresholds but still 1 to 2 ft above MHHW, so
limited to the most vulnerable spots right along the shoreline.

Based on latest guidance, the advisories will probably need to
include the Saturday morning high tide cycle. Flooding should be
less widespread for Sunday morning.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ071-073-
078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ072-074-
075-081-178-179.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NJZ006-106-
108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/JP
FIRE WEATHER...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC