okx-afd on 2024-11-14

528
FXUS61 KOKX 142118
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
418 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure over the Northeast will gradually shift west into
Friday as one area of low pressure approaches the Canadian
Maritimes and another passes to the south of the Mid Atlantic
coast. A second area of high pressure then builds in from the
west for the weekend, while low pressure near the Canadian
Maritimes weakens and heads out to sea. A cold front moves
through on Monday, with weak high pressure building in thereafter.
A complex frontal system could potentially impact the area
sometime mid to late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry weather will continue for the foreseeable future. Blocking
over the western North Atlantic will force an upper low over
the Ohio Valley tonight to take a southeast track toward the Mid
Atlantic coast, where a secondary surface low will develop. This
will keep the area well north and east of the rain shield. However,
high level clouds associated with the system will continue to
overspread the area with a cloudy night. This will impact
radiational cooling, but there is some uncertainty as to the
extent. Lows are forecast to range from the upper 20s well
inland, to around 40 across the NYC metro. Preferred the warmer
NBM over the MOS due to the cloud cover. No frost expected, at
least not widespread, as winds veer to the north with drier air
continuing to filter into the region.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure rapidly deepens tracking away from the Mid Atlantic
coast on Friday, while low pressure approaching the Canadian
Maritimes also continues to deepen. This will result in a
strengthening NW flow (gusts up to 20 mph) and very dry
conditions on Friday. Min RH values are forecast to be in the 20
to 30 percent range. Leaned toward the drier MOS dew points,
with some reflection of the NBM. See fire weather section below
for fire weather threat.

Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes begins to weaken on
Saturday, while high pressure builds in from the west. NW winds
look to be a bit stronger with gusts up to 25 mph expected.
Temperatures will gradually warm up from the mid and upper 50s
on Friday, to around 60 on Saturday, which is about 5 degrees
above normal. Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the
lower to mid 30s inland, to around 40 at the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Key Points

*Mostly dry conditions into the middle of next week.

*Potential for a frontal system to bring widespread rainfall
sometime mid to late next week.

*Above normal temperatures through the forecast period

An upper level ridge gradually builds in through Sunday as high
pressure centered west of the area remains in control and slides
south. A shortwave and associated cold front move through on Monday,
but with limited moisture the front will likely pass through dry.
Have just slight chance PoPs north and east of NYC. Weakened high
pressure reestablishes itself over the area for Tuesday into at
least the first half of Wednesday.

A complex frontal system looks to potentially impact the area
sometime mid to late next week. There is general agreement on this
from the global models, but typical timing/location/strength
differences remain since we are a week or so out. A large closed
upper level low will lift towards the Great Lakes along with the
associated surface low. A wave of low pressure looks to form
over/near the area along the cold front. The latest GFS and Canadian
have similar timing, with the ECMWF lagging behind about 24 hours.
Capped PoPs at chance (~40%) for now. The latest NBM has a 50-60%
chance of seeing at least 0.25 inches of rainfall over any 48 hour
period mid to late next week. This chance has slowly been increasing
over the last several runs of the NBM.

Temperatures will be above normal each day, with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered over eastern Canada remains stationary as
low pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast well south of the
region through Fri.

VFR with NE winds at or below 10kt through around 06Z Fri, then
becoming NW 10-15kt Fri afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday - Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt possible.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR with strong NW flow.

Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Sub-advisory conditions continue through Friday afternoon with
NW winds increasing Friday night with possible gusts to around
25kt, especially on the ocean water, through Saturday. An
easterly swell will keep seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft.

Winds and waves look to remain below SCA criteria Saturday
night through the middle of next week for the most part. There
is potential for some 25 kt gusts over the ocean waters with a
cold frontal passage on Monday. A frontal system may then bring
SCA conditions sometime mid to late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry conditions will continue through Saturday along with gusty
NW winds. In fact, min RH values Friday and Saturday will be
below 30 percent. NW winds also strengthen during this time with
gusts up to 25 mph possible on Saturday. In collaboration with
state land managers and adjacent WFOs, have issued a Red Flag
Warning for CT on Friday, with a Fire Weather Watch for the
Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC, and LI for Saturday. All other
times will be covered by an SPS.

Minimum relative humidity values will remain low on Sunday, around
30 percent. However, winds will only be around 5 to 10 mph out of
the NW/W.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below
the 25th percentile of normal for this time of year. There are
no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an upcoming full moon on the 15th, water levels will be on the
rise. Tidal departures needed for minor flooding will be as little
as a couple of tenths to 1/2 ft by Friday and Saturday.

Offshore low pressure combined with high pressure over the Northeast
coast late this week will result in a persistent NE flow into this
evening and 3-4 ft long period E swell. This should cause minor
coastal flooding during the morning high tides from today through
least Saturday. Flooding could be moderate in spots along the south
shores of Nassau and Queens this morning and Friday morning. Minor
flooding is even anticipated for tonight`s high tide cycle for these
two zones, while isolated minor flooding is still possible for a few
other locations tonight.

Most of the coastline is now under a coastal flood advisory through
the Fri AM high tide cycle, with widespread inundation of 1/2 to 1
ft above minor flood thresholds (1.5 to 2.5 ft above MHHW) expected.
Flooding along the SE CT coastline, on the north fork of Long Island
and in Peconic Bay, also also the more sheltered Great South Bay
locations of Suffolk, looks to be only spotty, with inundation
mostly below minor thresholds but still 1 to 2 ft above MHHW, so
limited to the most vulnerable spots right along the shoreline.

Based on latest guidance, the advisories will probably need to
include the Saturday morning high tide cycle. Flooding should be
less widespread for Sunday morning.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ071-073-
078-176-177.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NYZ211>213.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ072-074-
075-081-178-179.
NJ...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NJZ006-106-
108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JT/DW
FIRE WEATHER...//
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//