111
FXUS61 KOKX 151521
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1021 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south today as high pressure builds in
from the west for the weekend and low pressure near the Canadian
Maritimes weakens and heads out to sea. A cold front moves through
on Monday, with weak high pressure building in thereafter. A complex
frontal system then likely impacts the area towards late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is generally on track with only minor changes
needed.
Low pressure rapidly deepens tracking away from the Mid
Atlantic coast today, while low pressure approaching the
Canadian Maritimes also continues to deepen. This will result in
a strengthening NW flow (gusts up to 20 mph) and very dry
conditions. Min RH values are forecast to be in the 20 to 40
percent range. See fire weather section below for fire weather
threat.
Expect highs in the middle to upper 50s today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes begins to weaken
tonight, while high pressure builds in from the west. NW winds
for Saturday look to be a bit stronger with gusts up to 30 mph
expected. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to around 60 on
Saturday, which is about 5 degrees above normal. Slightly warmer
temperatures on Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s to middle
60s. Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the lower to mid
30s inland, to around 40 at the coast. Lower 40s are expected
in and around NYC.
Winds remain elevated tonight to preclude frost. Better radiational
cooling conditions for Saturday night into Sunday morning for the
interior, and thus frost is expected north and west of the city.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front passes through during Monday with limited moisture.
Can`t rule out a morning shower mainly north of the city. Clearing
behind the front with above-normal high temperatures on a
downsloping NW-WNW flow. Went a couple degrees above deterministic
NBM as it has been a little too low with the past couple of
instances with this setup.
High pressure otherwise keeps us dry through probably at least the
daytime hours of Wednesday, but left in a slight chance of afternoon
showers for some of the western zones with uncertainty over timing
of the next storm system to impact the area. A fairly broad area of
low pressure to our south and west heads our way Wednesday night
into Thursday. Better model agreement regarding the track and timing
of this storm with the 00z model run, but still capped PoPs at 40
percent Weds night through Thurs night for the time being as this is
still several days away. A needed widespread rainfall is
nevertheless appearing to be more likely. High temperatures for
Tuesday through Thursday a little above normal at mostly 55-60.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the region this afternoon as a
strong coastal low shifts into the Canadian Maritimes.
VFR. NW winds with speeds increasing to 10-15G20KT this afternoon.
Gusts subside after 00Z for some terminals, but NW flow remains.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts might be only occasional. Winds prevail north/right of 310
magnetic.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 25 kt.
Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR with NW gusts around 20 kt.
Tuesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions continue through tonight with NW winds
increasing tonight into Saturday morning. Gusts of 25 to 30 kt are
expected across all waters and SCA has been issued for all waters
for Saturday. With high pressure building in Saturday night, winds
diminish, and non-ocean waters will see wind drop below 25 kt early
Saturday night, while the ocean zones are expected to fall below 25
kt a few hours later.
An easterly swell will keep seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft, however
occasional 5 ft seas are possible, especially for the outer waters
of the ocean zones.
Winds and waves look to remain below SCA criteria Saturday
night through Monday morning. There is then a potential for
some 25 kt gusts over the ocean waters behind a cold front
Monday afternoon and night. Sub-advisory conditions otherwise
through Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue through Saturday along with gusty
NW winds. In fact, min RH values today are expected to be 20% to
40%, and Saturday will be 20% to around 30%. NW winds also
strengthen during this time with gusts up to 30 mph possible on
Saturday. In collaboration with state land managers and
adjacent WFOs, have issued a Red Flag Warning for CT on Friday,
with a Fire Weather Watch for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ,
NYC, and LI for Saturday. All other times will be covered by an
SPS. Minimum relative humidity values will remain low on
Sunday, around 30 percent. However, winds will only be around 5
to 10 mph out of the NW/W.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below
the 25th percentile of normal for this time of year. There are
no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
With an upcoming full moon today, water levels will be on the
rise. Tidal departures needed for minor flooding will be as
little as a couple of tenths to 1/2 ft by today and Saturday.
Offshore low pressure combined with high pressure over the Northeast
coast will help maintain a 3-4 ft long period E swell. This
should continue cause minor coastal flooding during the morning
high tides today and Saturday, and probably on Sunday for a few
areas. Flooding could be moderate in spots along the south
shores of Nassau and Queens this morning and potentially
Saturday morning as well.
Most of the coastline remains under a coastal flood advisory
through this morning`s high tide cycle, with widespread
inundation of 1/2 to 1 ft above minor flood thresholds (1.5 to
2.5 ft above MHHW) expected. Flooding along the SE CT coastline,
on the north fork of Long Island and in Peconic Bay, also the
more sheltered Great South Bay locations of Suffolk, looks to be
only spotty, with inundation mostly below minor thresholds but
still 1 to 2 ft above MHHW, so limited to the most vulnerable
spots right along the shoreline. A statement remains posted for
these zones for this morning, and it looks like levels will fall
short for Saturday morning`s high tide cycle, thus no extension
of the statement.
Extended advisories where confidence is highest for another round of
widespread minor flooding during the Saturday morning high tide
cycle. This includes the south shore back bays of Nassau/Queens as
well as along Jamaica Bay, Lower NY Harbor, and Southern Fairfield
County. For other all other zones under an advisory this morning,
confidence was not high enough to extend the advisory given the
latest guidance. Statements for localized minor flooding touching
benchmarks may still be needed for these zones.
Additional minor flooding still appears likely for some areas Sunday
morning and still possible on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST Saturday for CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
CTZ010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NYZ211>213.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ072-
081.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for NYZ074-075-
178-179.
NJ...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...