511
FXUS61 KOKX 152100
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Multiple areas of low pressure, one near the Canadian Maritimes,
and another off the Mid Atlantic coast, will gradually give way
to high pressure building in from the west over the weekend. A
cold front moves through on Monday, with weak high pressure
building in thereafter. A complex frontal system then likely
impacts the area mid to late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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One area of low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast continues to
deepen while tracking farther out into the western Atlantic,
while another stalls across the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure
will gradually build in from the west during this time. This
will keep the area dry with a gusty NW flow. Gusts on Saturday
will increase to up to 30 mph. See fire weather section below
for the fire weather threat.
Temperatures tonight will generally be a bit warmer as the
airmass should be mixed enough to limit strong radiational
cooling. Lows are forecast to range from the lower and mid 30s
inland, to around 40 at the coast. This is very close to normal.
Highs on Saturday will be around 60, which is about 5 degrees
above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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More of the same with a gradually dimishing NW flow as high
pressure approaches from the west. Lows will generally range
from the mid and upper 30s inland, to the lower 40s at the
coast. Winds are expected to stay up enough to limit strong
radiational cooling.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A gradually eastward shifting omega blocking pattern for early to
mid week, giving way to an anomalously deep closed upper low digging
through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes into NE US for late week.
At the surface, high pressure builds in from the west Sunday and
then to the southeast US coast for early next week.
Continuation of dry conditions for the Sunday through midweek
period. A shearing northern stream trough axis will bring a weak
cold frontal passage Sunday Night into Monday Am, with potential for
isolated showers/sprinkles. High pressure gets e-w squeezed across
the area Tue/Wed between filling SE Canadian low pressure and a
broad low pressure lifting through the Ohio Valley towards the
eastern Great Lakes. The associated warm front would bring potential
for light shower activity midweek but low confidence on details.
Thereafter, general agreement on approaching anomalous closed upper
low and phasing subtropical/PAC jet inducing rapid cyclogenesis
along a stalled warm front, somewhere along the NE US coast.
Inherent upper low evolution spread at this time window, which is
manifesting in similar differences in low pressure track, timing,
and intensity development. Based on model consensus though, the late
next week period will be time period to watch for potential of a
moderate to heavy precip and strong wind event.
Moderation of temps to well above seasonable readings continues
Sunday (6-8 degrees above) into Monday (10-12 degrees above) as high
pressure to the west sinks south of the region. Temps drop several
degrees in wake of warm front for mid week, but still remain above
seasonable. A return to seasonable or below seasonable levels with
possible coastal storm late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure remains over the region tonight as a strong coastal
low shifts into the Canadian Maritimes.
VFR. NW winds 10-15KT this evening with gusts to 20 kt. Gusts
subside after 00Z for some terminals, but NW flow remains. NW
increase again on Saturday with gusts to 30 kt likely by midday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts prevail north/right of 310 magnetic.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18z Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 30 kt.
Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR with NW gusts around 20 kt.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A strengthening NW flow will bring SCA to the waters, first on
the ocean tonight, then all waters on Saturday. Expect NW gusts
25 to 30 kt with seas on the ocean 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas
will gradually lower Saturday night as high pressure approaches
from the west.
Sub SCA conditions anticipated Sun into Sun Night with high pressure
over the region.
Potential for marginal SCA gusts to 25 kt developing across all
waters Monday AM and continuing into PM in wake of a cold front,
possibly lingering over ocean waters into the overnight.
Return to Sub SCA conditions for Tue into midweek as high pressure
remains squeezed across the region.
Next chance for SCA or greater conditions for all waters Wed Night
into late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Red Flag Warnings have been issues for entire forecast area for
Saturday due to a gusty NW flow up to 30 mph and minimum RH
values dropping below 30 percent. RH values come up slightly for
Sunday, but NW winds will be lighter as high pressure builds in
from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below
the 25th percentile of normal for this time of year. There are
no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The combination of a full moon (high astronomical tides) and an
easterly swell will continue to produce episodes of minor
coastal flooding during the morning/early afternoon high tide
cycles over the weekend. However, with a gusty NW flow water
levels will begin to gradually lower and tide levels will also
lower with the passage of the full moon. The morning high tide
cycle on Saturday should be the last time where we experience
localized moderate coastal flooding across the south shore back
bays of Nassau.
Coastal flood advisories are in effect for coastal Fairfield
CT, Lower NY Harbor, and the south shore back bays of western LI
for the Saturday morning/early afternoon high tide cycle.
Elsewhere, there are statements for levels near or just touching
minor benchmarks.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
CTZ009.
NY...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for NYZ211>213.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...NV/DW
FIRE WEATHER...//
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//