okx-afd on 2024-11-16

774
FXUS61 KOKX 160542
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1242 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple areas of low pressure, one near the Canadian Maritimes,
and another off the Mid Atlantic coast, will gradually give way
to high pressure building in from the west over the weekend. A
cold front moves through on Monday, with weak high pressure
building in thereafter. A complex frontal system then likely
impacts the area mid to late next week.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No notable changes with this update as the forecast remains on
track. Previous discussion follows

One area of low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast continues to
deepen and pulling away out into the western Atlantic, while
another stalls across the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure will
gradually build in from the west during this time. This will
keep the area dry with on a gusty NW flow. Gusts on Saturday
will increase to up to 30 mph. See fire weather section below
for the fire weather threat.

Temperatures overnight will generally be a bit warmer as the
airmass should be mixed enough to limit strong radiational
cooling. Lows are forecast to range from the lower and middle
30s inland, to around 40 at the coast. This is very close to
normal. Highs on Saturday will be around 60, which is about 5
degrees above normal.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
More of the same with a gradually dimishing NW flow as high
pressure approaches from the west. Lows will generally range
from the mid and upper 30s inland, to the lower 40s at the
coast. Winds are expected to stay up enough to limit strong
radiational cooling. More in the way of high clouds are expected
to arrive later Sunday and Sunday night, but it is expected to
remain dry.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A gradually eastward shifting omega blocking pattern for early to
mid week, giving way to an anomalously deep closed upper low digging
through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes into NE US for late week.

At the surface, high pressure builds in from the west Sunday and
then to the southeast US coast for early next week.

Continuation of dry conditions for the Sunday through midweek
period. A shearing northern stream trough axis will bring a weak
cold frontal passage Sunday Night into Monday Am, with potential for
isolated showers/sprinkles. High pressure gets e-w squeezed across
the area Tue/Wed between filling SE Canadian low pressure and a
broad low pressure lifting through the Ohio Valley towards the
eastern Great Lakes. The associated warm front would bring potential
for light shower activity midweek but low confidence on details.

Thereafter, general agreement on approaching anomalous closed upper
low and phasing subtropical/PAC jet inducing rapid cyclogenesis
along a stalled warm front, somewhere along the NE US coast.
Inherent upper low evolution spread at this time window, which is
manifesting in similar differences in low pressure track, timing,
and intensity development. Based on model consensus though, the late
next week period will be time period to watch for potential of a
moderate to heavy precip and strong wind event.

Moderation of temps to well above seasonable readings continues
Sunday (6-8 degrees above) into Monday (10-12 degrees above) as high
pressure to the west sinks south of the region. Temps drop several
degrees in wake of warm front for mid week, but still remain above
seasonable. A return to seasonable or below seasonable levels with
possible coastal storm late week.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure continues to shift in from the west today while a
broad area of low pressure remains over the western Atlantic.

VFR. NW winds mostly around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20
kt, mainly NYC/NJ metro terminals. NW gusts increase after 14z
with gusts increasing to 25-30kt by the end of the morning.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Winds prevail north/right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may be frequent
instead of occasional before 14z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR. NW gusts around 25 kt in late AM and afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
A strengthening NW flow will bring SCA to the waters, first on
the ocean tonight, then all waters on Saturday. Expect NW gusts
25 to 30 kt with seas on the ocean 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas
will gradually lower Saturday night as high pressure approaches
from the west.

Sub SCA conditions anticipated Sun into Sun Night with high pressure
over the region.

Potential for marginal SCA gusts to 25 kt developing across all
waters Monday AM and continuing into PM in wake of a cold front,
possibly lingering over ocean waters into the overnight.

Return to Sub SCA conditions for Tue into midweek as high pressure
remains squeezed across the region.

Next chance for SCA or greater conditions for all waters Wed Night
into late week.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings have been issues for entire forecast area for
Saturday due to a gusty NW flow up to 30 mph and minimum RH
values dropping below 30 percent. RH values come up slightly for
Sunday, but NW winds will be lighter as high pressure builds in
from the west.

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below
the 25th percentile of normal for this time of year. There are
no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of a full moon (high astronomical tides) and an
easterly swell will continue to produce episodes of minor
coastal flooding during the morning/early afternoon high tide
cycles over the weekend. However, with a gusty NW flow water
levels will begin to gradually lower and tide levels will also
lower with the passage of the full moon. The morning high tide
cycle on Saturday should be the last time where we experience
localized moderate coastal flooding across the south shore back
bays of Nassau.

Coastal flood advisories are in effect for coastal Fairfield
CT, Lower NY Harbor, and the south shore back bays of western LI
for the Saturday morning/early afternoon high tide cycle.
Elsewhere, there are statements for levels near or just touching
minor benchmarks.

A gradual lowering of total water levels expected Sunday into
Monday as astro tides slowly fall. This will still result in
another round of widespread minor flooding Sunday morning for
the same areas affected on Saturday AM. Minor flooding will
likely be mainly confined to Queens/Nassau County southern bays
and Southern Westchester/SW CT for Mon AM high tides. Localized
minor flooding for these areas by Tue AM high tide.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this
afternoon for CTZ009.
NY...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for NYZ211>213.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --