524
FXUS61 KOKX 160846
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
346 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in from the west through Sunday,
followed by a weak cold frontal passage on Monday. Low pressure
tracking near the Great Lakes could produce a period of rain
Wednesday night and Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pres to the E and high pres to the W will produce breezy
conditions today. Went abv the NBM guidance with both the NAM
and GFS showing 25kt winds at around 2k ft. Based on this would
expect sfc gusts 25-30 mph during the middle of the day. Strong
subsidence noted in the time heights, so it will be difficult to
get any clouds going. If any high based cu does develop they
should flatten quickly. The guidance was in good agreement for
temps so went with the NBM.
The winds should stay up tngt, except for some of the more
sheltered interior locations. With the mixed llvls, went with
the NBM for temps. Some high clouds may begin to filter in
around sunrise Sun.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Some high clouds on Sun, along with less wind. The thermal
ridge builds in by late in the day and thru the overnight, then
is displaced on Mon with a cfp. H85 gets to around 10C for swrn
zones by 00Z Mon, which would theoretically bring highs in the
70s areawide. The timing may be slightly too late however, and
the guidance suggests this by keeping highs much cooler. There
may also be a sea breeze, but the guidance has yet to pick up on
this. As a result, stuck with the NBM and did not increase temps
attm. Abv normal temps Sun ngt despite the lgt winds, then a
cold front comes thru on Mon. All of the models are in agreement
with the dry scenario. With this timing, high temps have been
knocked back slightly from the previous fcst. If the front
slows however, highs will be much warmer. A gusty nwly flow
behind the front on Mon, with the wind likely staying up near
the coasts Mon ngt, limiting radiational cooling there.
Otherwise, some pockets of subfreezing temps possible across
the coldest inland spots.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Deep-layered ridging for Tuesday with mostly sunny conditions and
highs a little above normal. The ridge aloft shifts east with its
axis over us on Wednesday, and this should be able to hold off any
rainfall associated with an approaching storm system. This system
will be energized as a closed H5 low dives SE into the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday, then slowly shifts toward the
Northeast on Friday. The associated primary surface low will be
nearby the upper low through the period, with the potential of a
secondary low or triple point shifting through the forecast area
during Thursday. Rain chances begin Wednesday evening, with rain
likely Wednesday night into Thursday as the deepest moisture and
strongest lift pass through. There`s the potential of an inch of
rainfall during this period with additional minor amounts thereafter
into Friday as the flow aloft remains cyclonic - sustaining the
chance of showers. Strong winds could be possible for mainly coastal
areas Weds night into Thursday morning with strengthening low level
jet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure continues to shift in from the west today while a
broad area of low pressure remains over the western Atlantic.
VFR. NW winds mostly around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20
kt, mainly NYC/NJ metro terminals. NW gusts increase after 14z with
gusts increasing to 25-30kt by the end of the morning. Gusts then
subside this evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Winds prevail north/right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may be frequent
instead of occasional before 14z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Late tonight: VFR.
Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 kt in late AM and afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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NW winds strengthen today, then gradually diminish overnight. A
sca remains in effect for all waters today, ending by Sun mrng,
first on the protected waters then on the ocean. Winds and seas
blw sca lvls Sun, then there may be a period with sca cond Mon
aftn and eve behind a cold frontal passage, particularly on the
ocean.
Return to Sub SCA conditions for Tue into midweek as high pressure
remains squeezed across the region.
Next chance for SCA or greater conditions for all waters Wed Night
into late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the entire forecast area
today due to a gusty NW flow up to 30 mph and minimum RH values
dropping below 30 percent. Minimum RH will fall below 30 percent
again on Sun, but winds will be lighter at roughly 10-15 mph.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There is the potential for around an inch of rainfall Wednesday
night through Thursday, but with the antecedent dry conditions,
there are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The combination of a full moon (high astronomical tides) and an
easterly swell will continue to produce episodes of minor
coastal flooding during the morning/early afternoon high tide
cycles over the weekend. However, with a gusty NW flow water
levels will begin to gradually lower and tide levels will also
lower with the passage of the full moon. The morning high tide cycle
today should be the last time where we experience localized moderate
coastal flooding across the south shore back bays of Nassau.
Coastal flood advisories are in effect for coastal Fairfield
CT, Lower NY Harbor, and the south shore back bays of western LI for
the morning/early afternoon high tide cycle today. Elsewhere, there
are statements for levels near or just touching minor benchmarks.
A gradual lowering of total water levels expected Sunday into
Monday as astro tides slowly fall. This will still result in
another round of widespread minor flooding Sunday morning for the
same areas affected this morning. Minor flooding will likely be
mainly confined to Queens/Nassau County southern bays and Southern
Westchester/SW CT for Mon AM high tides. Only localized minor
flooding for these areas by Tue AM high tide.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this
afternoon for CTZ009.
NY...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for NYZ211>213.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC