okx-afd on 2024-11-16

591
FXUS61 KOKX 161148
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
648 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will build in from the west through Sunday,
followed by a weak cold frontal passage on Monday. High
pressure returns for Tuesday, then low pressure impacts the
region Wednesday night through Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The forecast is mainly on track with only minor adjustments made
to some of the hourly weather elements.

Low pres to the E and high pres to the W will produce breezy
conditions today. Went abv the NBM guidance with both the NAM
and GFS showing 25kt winds at around 2k ft. Based on this would
expect sfc gusts 25-30 mph during the middle of the day. Strong
subsidence noted in the time heights, so it will be difficult to
get any clouds going. If any high based cu does develop they
should flatten quickly. The guidance was in good agreement for
temps so went with the NBM.

The winds should stay up tngt, except for some of the more
sheltered interior locations. With the mixed llvls, went with
the NBM for temps. Some high clouds may begin to filter in
around sunrise Sun.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Some high clouds on Sun, along with less wind. The thermal
ridge builds in by late in the day and thru the overnight, then
is displaced on Mon with a cfp. H85 gets to around 10C for swrn
zones by 00Z Mon, which would theoretically bring highs in the
70s areawide. The timing may be slightly too late however, and
the guidance suggests this by keeping highs much cooler. There
may also be a sea breeze, but the guidance has yet to pick up on
this. As a result, stuck with the NBM and did not increase temps
attm. Abv normal temps Sun ngt despite the lgt winds, then a
cold front comes thru on Mon. All of the models are in agreement
with the dry scenario. With this timing, high temps have been
knocked back slightly from the previous fcst. If the front
slows however, highs will be much warmer. A gusty nwly flow
behind the front on Mon, with the wind likely staying up near
the coasts Mon ngt, limiting radiational cooling there.
Otherwise, some pockets of subfreezing temps possible across
the coldest inland spots.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep-layered ridging for Tuesday with mostly sunny conditions and
highs a little above normal. The ridge aloft shifts east with its
axis over us on Wednesday, and this should be able to hold off any
rainfall associated with an approaching storm system. This system
will be energized as a closed H5 low dives SE into the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday, then slowly shifts toward the
Northeast on Friday. The associated primary surface low will be
nearby the upper low through the period, with the potential of a
secondary low or triple point shifting through the forecast area
during Thursday. Rain chances begin Wednesday evening, with rain
likely Wednesday night into Thursday as the deepest moisture and
strongest lift pass through. There`s the potential of an inch of
rainfall during this period with additional minor amounts thereafter
into Friday as the flow aloft remains cyclonic - sustaining the
chance of showers. Strong winds could be possible for mainly coastal
areas Weds night into Thursday morning with strengthening low level
jet.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure continues to shift in from the west today while a
broad area of low pressure remains over the western Atlantic.

VFR. NW winds increase this morning with gusts becoming more
frequent by late morning across all terminals. Afternoon gusts
mostly 25-30kt. Gusts then subside this evening.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Winds prevail north/right of 310 magnetic. Occasional gusts
30-32kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 kt in late AM and afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --NW winds strengthen today, then gradually diminish overnight. A
sca remains in effect for all waters today, ending by Sun mrng,
first on the protected waters then on the ocean. Winds and seas
blw sca lvls Sun, then there may be a period with sca cond Mon
aftn and eve behind a cold frontal passage, particularly on the
ocean.

Return to Sub SCA conditions for Tue into midweek as high pressure
remains squeezed across the region.

Next chance for SCA or greater conditions for all waters is Wed
Night into late week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the entire forecast area
today due to a gusty NW flow up to 30 mph and minimum RH values
dropping below 30 percent. Minimum RH will fall below 30 percent
again on Sun, but winds will be lighter at roughly 10-15 mph.

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below
the 25th percentile of normal for this time of year.

There is the potential for around an inch of rainfall Wednesday
night through Thursday, but with the antecedent dry conditions,
there are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --The combination of a recent full moon (high astronomical tides)
and an easterly swell will continue to produce episodes of
minor coastal flooding during the morning/early afternoon high
tide cycles over this weekend. However, with a NW flow, water
levels will begin to gradually lower and tide levels will also
lower with the passage of the full moon. The easterly swell may
however hamper this as a broad area of low pressure remains over
the western Atlantic. The morning high tide cycle today is
probably the last time where we experience localized moderate
coastal flooding across the south shore back bays of Nassau, but
cannot completely rule it out for Sunday morning.

Coastal flood advisories are in effect for coastal Fairfield
CT, Lower NY Harbor, and the south shore back bays of western LI for
the morning/early afternoon high tide cycle today. There are
statements for levels near or just touching minor benchmarks for
most other areas.

A gradual lowering of total water levels expected Sunday into
Monday as astro tides slowly fall. This will still result in
another round of widespread minor flooding Sunday morning for the
same areas affected this morning. So far, minor flooding looks
to be mainly confined to Queens/Nassau County southern bays and
Southern Westchester/SW CT for Mon AM high tides. Potentially
only localized minor flooding for these areas by Tue AM high
tide, but swell may cause it to be more widespread than
currently anticipated.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
CTZ009.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ211>213.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ074-
075-178-179.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...