okx-afd on 2024-11-16

109
FXUS61 KOKX 161722
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1222 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west through Sunday,
followed by a weak cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure
returns for Tuesday, then low pressure impacts the region
Wednesday night through Friday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures running overall slightly warmer than forecast.
Increased the high temperature forecast a few degrees across the
area with the more than 1 degree increase along the coast.
Expecting efficient downslope flow and with nearly steady 850 mb
temperatures during the day, adiabatic mixing should produce
highs in the lower 60s for most locations, especially along the
coast. Also lowered the dewpoints using LAMP guidance to better
match observed trends. Otherwise, rest of forecast on track.

Low pres to the E and high pres to the W will produce breezy
conditions today. Went abv the NBM guidance with both the NAM
and GFS showing 25kt winds at around 2k ft. Based on this would
expect sfc gusts 25-30 mph during the middle of the day. Strong
subsidence noted in the time heights, so it will be difficult to
get any clouds going. If any high based cu does develop they
should flatten quickly. The guidance was in good agreement for
temps so went with the NBM.

The winds should stay up tngt, except for some of the more
sheltered interior locations. With the mixed llvls, went with
the NBM for temps. Some high clouds may begin to filter in
around sunrise Sun.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Some high clouds on Sun, along with less wind. The thermal
ridge builds in by late in the day and thru the overnight, then
is displaced on Mon with a cfp. H85 gets to around 10C for swrn
zones by 00Z Mon, which would theoretically bring highs in the
70s areawide. The timing may be slightly too late however, and
the guidance suggests this by keeping highs much cooler. There
may also be a sea breeze, but the guidance has yet to pick up on
this. As a result, stuck with the NBM and did not increase
temps attm. Abv normal temps Sun ngt despite the lgt winds, then
a cold front comes thru on Mon. All of the models are in
agreement with the dry scenario. With this timing, high temps
have been knocked back slightly from the previous fcst. If the
front slows however, highs will be much warmer. A gusty nwly
flow behind the front on Mon, with the wind likely staying up
near the coasts Mon ngt, limiting radiational cooling there.
Otherwise, some pockets of subfreezing temps possible across the
coldest inland spots.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep-layered ridging for Tuesday with mostly sunny conditions
and highs a little above normal. The ridge aloft shifts east
with its axis over us on Wednesday, and this should be able to
hold off any rainfall associated with an approaching storm
system. This system will be energized as a closed H5 low dives
SE into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday, then
slowly shifts toward the Northeast on Friday. The associated
primary surface low will be nearby the upper low through the
period, with the potential of a secondary low or triple point
shifting through the forecast area during Thursday. Rain chances
begin Wednesday evening, with rain likely Wednesday night into
Thursday as the deepest moisture and strongest lift pass
through. There`s the potential of an inch of rainfall during
this period with additional minor amounts thereafter into Friday
as the flow aloft remains cyclonic - sustaining the chance of
showers. Strong winds could be possible for mainly coastal areas
Weds night into Thursday morning with strengthening low level
jet.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure continues to build in slowly from the west through
Sunday morning, then weakens Sunday afternoon.

VFR.

NW winds around 15kt with gusts 25-30kt, peaking mid afternoon,
with occasional gusts 30-32kt. Winds and gusts subside early
this evening, with the gusts ending early evening, 02Z/03Z, with
the winds becoming more northerly. Then Sunday morning winds
back to NW and W remaining 10kt or less.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Winds prevail north/right of 310 magnetic. Occasional gusts
30-32kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon...VFR.

Monday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 kt in late AM and afternoon.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR during the day. MVFR, with a chance of IFR, at
night with light rain.

Thursday...MVFR to IFR with light rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
NW winds strengthen today, then gradually diminish overnight. A
sca remains in effect for all waters today, ending by Sun mrng,
first on the protected waters then on the ocean. Winds and seas
blw sca lvls Sun, then there may be a period with sca cond Mon
aftn and eve behind a cold frontal passage, particularly on the
ocean.

Return to Sub SCA conditions for Tue into midweek as high pressure
remains squeezed across the region.

Next chance for SCA or greater conditions for all waters is Wed
Night into late week.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the entire forecast area
today due to a gusty NW flow up to 30 mph and minimum RH values
dropping below 30 percent. Minimum RH will fall below 30 percent
again on Sun, but winds will be lighter at roughly 10-15 mph.

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below
the 25th percentile of normal for this time of year.

There is the potential for around an inch of rainfall Wednesday
night through Thursday, but with the antecedent dry conditions,
there are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of a recent full moon (high astronomical tides)
and an easterly swell will continue to produce episodes of
minor coastal flooding during the morning/early afternoon high
tide cycles over this weekend. However, with a NW flow, water
levels will begin to gradually lower and tide levels will also
lower with the passage of the full moon. The easterly swell may
however hamper this as a broad area of low pressure remains over
the western Atlantic. The morning high tide cycle today is
probably the last time where we experience localized moderate
coastal flooding across the south shore back bays of Nassau, but
cannot completely rule it out for Sunday morning.

Coastal flood advisories are in effect for coastal Fairfield
CT, Lower NY Harbor, and the south shore back bays of western LI for
the morning/early afternoon high tide cycle today. There are
statements for levels near or just touching minor benchmarks for
most other areas.

A gradual lowering of total water levels expected Sunday into
Monday as astro tides slowly fall. This will still result in
another round of widespread minor flooding Sunday morning for the
same areas affected this morning. So far, minor flooding looks
to be mainly confined to Queens/Nassau County southern bays and
Southern Westchester/SW CT for Mon AM high tides. Potentially
only localized minor flooding for these areas by Tue AM high
tide, but swell may cause it to be more widespread than
currently anticipated.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
CTZ009.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...