okx-afd on 2024-11-16

644
FXUS61 KOKX 170046
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
746 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build in from the west through
early Sunday. The high pressure then shifts south and offshore
for the rest of Sunday and into Monday. A weak frontal system
approaches Sunday night and weakens more going into early
Monday. Weakening high pressure is then over the local area
thereafter going into midweek. A complex low pressure system
will affect the area Wed night into the weekend.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Across the local region, steady 250mb heights through this
evening, with surface high pressure building in from the west.

The pressure gradient makes the difference in terms of the low
temperature forecast as it will remain steep enough to keep
winds from becoming calm. They are forecast to get lowest (near
5 mph) across the interior while closer to the coast, they will
be at minimum more within the 5 to 10 mph range.

With cloud coverage remaining minimal, the low temperature
forecast used a combination of MAV and MET MOS guidance and the
NBM. However, across the interior, used the colder MAV
guidance, which covers much of the Lower Hudson Valley, much of
Bergen and Passaic NJ, Western Essex NJ, Western Union NJ, and
northern portions of Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex and New
London CT. Most interior spots as well as parts of LI Pine
Barrens are forecast to get some frost as well. No frost is
forecast where the growing season is still active, Hudson NJ,
NYC and Southern Nassau NY as lows there will be generally in
the lower 40s.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Looking at 250mb level, there is a large trough SW to NE
orientation in the Western US, with a strong jet streak making
its way eastward through the rest of the weekend. There is then
an increasing heights trend with ridging late tonight through
Sunday. Winds increase at the 250mb level. The jet stream
maximum moves across Sunday night with quasi-zonal flow and
stays across Monday through Monday night. Heights lower Sunday
night through Monday before rising again Monday night. Next
ridge axis moves across Wednesday. Rising height trend continues
Tuesday through Tuesday night and then becomes more steady
Wednesday.

At the surface, high pressure will be moving farther south of
the region Sunday and eventually off the coast of the Southeast
US late Sunday through Monday. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure weakens as it moves from Ontario to Quebec with its
associated frontal system approaching the local region. However,
this system is expected to completely weaken as it moves through
the local region Monday. As a result, the system will not bring
any rainfall to the region. Dry conditions will continue. Mostly
sunny Sunday with NBM 90th percentile used for high
temperatures, again mostly in the lower 60s. Clouds are
forecast to increase Sunday night. This will mitigate
radiational cooling Sunday night, lower 30s to upper 40s range
for lows.

For Monday through Wednesday next week, dry conditions continue.
Temperatures on a cooling trend Monday into Tuesday before a
slight rebound Wednesday. Weak pressure gradient resides over
the region which will make for less gusty winds.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models in good agreement with an anomalously deep closed upper low
(2-3 std below normal heights) digging into the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley Wed Night into Thu, lifting into the NE US on Friday, and
then stalling over the NE US into the weekend. The approaching upper
low and phasing subtropical/PAC jet appear to induce rapid
cyclogenesis along a stalled frontal boundary over the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes Wed night, with its associated cold/occluded
front swinging towards the region Wed Night into Thursday.

Inherent spread in upper low evolution at this time window, is
manifesting in spread in subsequent secondary coastal low pressure
track, timing, and intensification Thursday. At this point, model
consensus is for a progressive coastal low, but low confidence this
far out. Potential continues for a quick hitting moderate to heavy
rain event Wed Night/Thu with deep layered lift of +2 std PWAT
airmass, followed by a prolonged period of breezy conditions and
slightly below seasonable temps Fri into the weekend.

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure continues to build in slowly from the west through
Sunday morning, then weakens Sunday afternoon.

VFR.

NW winds and gusts subside early this evening, with the gusts
ending, 02Z/03Z, and winds becoming more northerly. Sunday latE
morning into the afternoon winds will back to WNW, remaining
10kt or less.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Winds prevail north/right of 310 magnetic through morning. There
is a chance KJFK backs to the SW for time late Sunday
afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night...VFR.

Monday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 kt in late AM and afternoon.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR during the day. MVFR, with a chance of IFR, at
night with rain.

Thursday...MVFR to IFR with rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for all waters. The non-ocean zones drop
off from SCA at 10pm. The ocean zones go until 5am Sunday.
Thereafter, sub-SCA on the waters thereafter until late Monday
night with some SCA potential on eastern waters and the ocean
through early Tuesday. Mainly below SCA thereafter through
midweek.

Potential for a prolonged period of SCA or greater conditions for
all waters Wed Night into the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions remain through the forecast period. Gusty winds
continue into this evening but will gradually be on a downward
trend. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the entire area
until 6PM this evening.

Winds forecast to be more near the 5 to 10 mph range for Sunday
with some gusts to near 20 mph. However, gusts will be much less
widespread compared to the previous day. Minimum RH forecast to
be near 20 to 30 percent for Sunday. Some enhancement to brush
fire spread but not to the same extent as the previous day.

NW winds return to being more gusty for Monday, sustained
generally around 10 to 15 mph with gusts near 20 to 25 mph.
Dewpoints are forecast to be increasing though so the minimum RH
Monday is forecast to be generally between 35 and 50 percent.

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below the
10-25th percentile of normal for this time of year.

Low probability (30 percent) for 1"+ rainfall Wed Night/Thu, which
does not pose any significant hydrologic concerns at this time.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A gradual lowering of total water levels expected Sunday into Monday
as astrotides and surge slowly fall. This will still result in
another round of widespread minor flooding Sunday morning along
southern bays of Nassau and Queens as well as coastal Westchester
and Fairfield counties. Localized minor coastal flooding most
elsewhere.

Localized minor flooding will likely be mainly confined to
Queens/Nassau County southern bays and Southern Westchester/SW CT
for Mon AM high tides.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Sunday for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/NV
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...