846
FXUS61 KOKX 171017
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
517 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will build over the region today, followed
by a weak cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure returns
for Tuesday. A complex low pressure system will affect the area
Wednesday night into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst is on track, with pockets across the interior
decoupling and temps dropping to around freezing. Some patchy
frost can be expected in these areas. Otherwise, high pres
builds S of the cwa today. Generally light NW flow backs to the
W thru the day. With H85 flow picking up to around 15kt, this
may be enough to hold off the aftn sea breeze. Although not in
the model blends, would not be surprised to see it develop along
the immediate S shores of CT and LI. Some cirrus over the Great
Lakes per IR, and this is modeled to start coming in before
sunset. Otherwise sunny today. Went NBM for temps.
The mid and high clouds overspread the area tngt ahead of a
cdfnt. Timing looks to have sped up a bit, with the fropa before
12Z Mon. Stayed with the NBM for temps with the cloud cover
limiting the radiational cooling component.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NW winds kick up again by 15-18Z with the cdfnt likely thru the
cwa per the modeling. H85 winds increase to around 30kt per the
GFS and NAM, so gusts around 25 mph seams reasonable. Increased
winds in the grids above the model blends and NBM to indicate
this. Falling temps aloft could allow for sct cu to trigger in
the aftn. Deep mixing however will allow for highs well abv
climo. By Mon ngt, some stratus may attempt to bleed in from the
NW, but extensive low cloud cover is not expected attm with the
downslope flow and dry airmass. WAA aloft Tue will lead to
increasing clouds thru Tue ngt. The cloud cover, along with
weaker mixing, is progged to keep temps cooler than Mon despite
a warmer airmass overall. Stuck with the NBM here for temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models in good agreement with an anomalously deep closed upper low
(2-3 standard deviations below normal heights) digging into the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley Wed Night into Thu, lifting into the NE US on
Friday, and then stalling over the NE US into the weekend. Global
models have trended over the past 24 hours with a weaker surface low
development over the Great Lakes and a stronger secondary low taking
shape right over us late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will
therefore be the period when rainfall chances will be at the
highest. Can`t even rule out an isolated thunderstorm with the
strengthening low center passing through coinciding with a little
elevated instability. NBM probability of 1+ inches of rain Weds
night through Thursday has increased to 30-50%, with deterministic
models in pretty good agreement that we pick up 0.75 to 1.50 inches
of rain during this time.
Models begin to diverge thereafter regarding the track of the closed
H5 low and attendant surface low to our north. Chances of showers
will remain through Saturday with a cyclonic flow remaining aloft.
It could be quite breezy as well during this period, depending on
the position of the storm`s center.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in slowly from the west through
morning, then weakens in the afternoon. A weak cold front approaches
Sunday night and passes through Monday morning.
VFR. NW winds 5-10kt backing to the WNW-W this afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
There is a chance KJFK prevails SW for a few hours late afternoon
into early evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late tonight...VFR.
Monday...VFR. NW gusts around 20kt in late AM and afternoon.
Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...VFR during the day. MVFR/IFR, at night with rain along
with E-SE gusts around 25kt.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain in the morning, then mostly MVFR in
the afternoon with a chance of showers and W gusts around 25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas blw sca lvls thru tngt. There is a chance winds
pick up to around 25 kt on Mon behind the cold front, before
diminishing again Mon ngt. Winds and seas again blw sca lvls
Tue.
There will then be a prolonged period of at least SCA conditions for
all waters Wednesday night into the weekend with a storm lingering
nearby.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NW winds backing to the W today in the 5-15 mph range. Min RH
20-30 percent. Winds shift to the NW Mon mrng behind a front,
with gusts around 25 mph possible in the aftn. Min RH around
30-40 percent.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below the
10-25th percentile of normal for this time of year.
Rainfall Wednesday night through Thursday is shaping up to be in the
range of 0.75 to 1.50 inches. Although most of this may fall in less
than a 6-12 hour period, there are no significant hydrologic
concerns at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A gradual lowering of total water levels expected today into
Monday as astronomical tides and surge slowly fall. This will
still result in another round of widespread minor flooding this
morning along southern bays of Nassau and Queens as well as
coastal Westchester and Fairfield counties. Localized minor
coastal flooding most elsewhere.
Localized minor flooding will likely be mainly confined to
Queens/Nassau County southern bays and Southern Westchester/SW CT
for the Monday morning high tides.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
this afternoon for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
this afternoon for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC