okx-afd on 2024-11-17

658
FXUS61 KOKX 172105
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains to the south and west of the area through
Monday, with a weak cold front passing through Monday morning.
High pressure then remains to the west Monday night through
Tuesday, and weakens Tuesday night, moving east of the region
Wednesday. A complex frontal system will be approaching from the
west midweek with an associated surface low developing south of
Long Island Wednesday night. This low will meander in the
northeast for Thursday and Friday before departing farther away
for next weekend. High pressure eventually makes a return to the
local region for next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains to the south and west of the region
tonight with dry conditions. High clouds remain over the region
as a weak warm front passes well to the north. Leaned toward the
slightly warmer MOS/MAV guidance for overnight lows, with
cooler temperatures in the outlying areas where winds decouple
with some radiational cooling as the high clouds inhibit ideal
cooling.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A weak cold front passes through the region from the north
Monday morning, with no precipitation expected with little to no
moisture. Winds increase in the very weak to neutral cold
advection behind the front, with gusts developing. Forecast for
winds mainly on track for Monday, and used a blend of the
previous forecast and the slightly higher CONSSHORT guidance.
With little cold advection highs will be near or even slightly
higher then Sunday`s temperatures, with downslope flow.

High pressure remains to the west Monday night and Tuesday with
dry conditions persisting.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Ridge axis aloft moves across Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Ridge moves east of the area Wednesday. Weakening high
pressure across the region Tuesday night moves east of the
region Wednesday. This will give way to an approaching complex
low pressure system. Less clouds for SE CT and Eastern LI and
more clouds for NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley.

Jet stream difluence apparent for Wednesday night. Left front
quad of upper jet gets close to the local region late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. Strong baroclinic zone moves
in with strengthening coastal low moving south of Long Island
Wednesday night. This low is forecast to move northeast towards
Coastal New England Thursday into Thursday evening. Widespread
rain, heavy at times for Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Gusty easterly winds Wednesday night, eventually becoming more
westerly gusty flow Thursday.

The low will meander around the northeast Thursday night
through Friday and then goes into Canadian Maritimes Friday
night. Precipitation mode Thursday through Friday night becomes
more of showers. Deep closed low moves across with its colder
air aloft. Cold air advection will make for some mixing in with
snow for interior parts of the region Thursday night into Friday
morning as well as for Friday night. Otherwise, periodic rain
showers are forecast for the region.

For the weekend, deep closed low aloft moves northeast of the
region with more of a zonal flow coming into place. At the
surface, low pressure gradually moves farther northeast of the
local region and in its place, high pressure builds into the
local region from the west. Gusty westerly flow but decreasing
chances for showers from Saturday into Saturday night. Mainly
dry for next Sunday.

Warmest day of long term forecast to be Wednesday, upper 50s to near
60 for highs. Highs forecast thereafter are near to below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure settles nearby this evening, then settles just to
the south late tonight. Meanwhile, a weak cold front approaches
and passes through Monday morning. Weak high pressure builds
Monday afternoon and evening.

VFR. Light W winds tonight, generally 5 to 8 kt at the city
terminals, and mainly under 5 kt for outlying terminals. The winds
become NW towards 12z with gusts 20 to 25 kt by late morning (14-
15z).

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

There remains a chance that all 4 city terminals prevail from the SW
for a few hours into the early evening. Otherwise, start time of
gusts Monday morning may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon...VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR during the day. MVFR/IFR at night with rain along
with E-SE gusts around 25kt.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain in the morning, then mostly MVFR in
the afternoon with a chance of showers. Gusts out of the W possible
later in the day and at night.

Friday...Pockets of MVFR early, otherwise VFR prevails with gusty
WNW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --A weak pressure gradient force remains across the forecast
waters tonight into Monday morning with high pressure to the
west and south of the waters. A weak cold front crosses the
waters Monday morning, and northwest gusts are expected to
increase to SCA levels by afternoon across the south shore
bays, ocean waters, and the eastern Long Island Sound, and
eastern bays. Small craft conditions on the south bays continues
through early evening Monday, and the eastern bays and Sound
into early hours of Tuesday morning. SCA conditions remain on
the ocean waters through Monday night, and may linger into
Tuesday morning. Then with high pressure to the west Tuesday all
waters should remain below advisory levels.

Sub-SCA conditions on the waters to start the marine long term,
Tuesday night with weak pressure gradient in place. The weak
pressure gradient and sub-SCA conditions remain through
Wednesday. Would expect an increasing trend to winds and seas
Wednesday night with SCA becoming more likely. These more rough
conditions remain for the rest of the marine long term, through
Friday night. SCA looks likely for the timeframe with possible
gales at times. Gale possibility not high enough for mention in
HWO but will monitor subsequent forecast for any increases in
gale potential.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --NW winds less than 10 mph early this evening become light
westerly later this evening and overnight. Monday, with the
passage of a cold front northwest winds increase to 10 to 15
mph, gusting 20 to 25 mph by Monday afternoon. Minimum RH will
range from 40 to 45 percent across the Lower Hudson Valley
into interior southern Connecticut, and 35 to 40 percent along
the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Only time period to monitor for any hydrologic impact would be
Wednesday night into early Thursday with some potential for heavy
rain. With how dry it has been, flash flood guidance has trended
higher for 1, 3, and 6 hour rainfall amounts. Looking at long range
ensemble forecast and spectrum of rainfall amounts, max 6 hour rain
amounts could reach as high as near 1.5 inches. This is less than
what is required for flash flooding, so not expecting flash flooding
but minor flooding will be possible.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --A gradual lowering of total water levels is expected through
Monday as astronomical tides and surge slowly fall. Localized
minor flooding will likely be mainly confined to Queens/Nassau
County southern bays and Southern Westchester/SW CT for the
Monday morning high tides.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ332-340.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...