179
FXUS61 KOKX 180246
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
946 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains to the south and west of the area through
Monday, with a weak cold front passing through in the morning.
High pressure then remains to the west Monday night through
Tuesday, and weakens Tuesday night, moving east of the region
Wednesday. A complex frontal system will be approaching from the
west midweek with an associated surface low developing south of
Long Island Wednesday night. This low will meander in the
northeast for Thursday and Friday before departing farther away
for next weekend. High pressure eventually makes a return to the
local region for next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Just some minor adjustments this update based on latest
temperatures across the forecast area.
Otherwise, high pressure remains to the south and west of the
region tonight with dry conditions. High clouds remain over the
region as a weak warm front passes well to the north Leaned
toward the slightly warmer 12Z MOS/MAV guidance for overnight
lows, with cooler temperatures in the outlying areas where winds
decouple with some radiational cooling as the high clouds
inhibit ideal cooling.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front passes through the region from the north
Monday morning, with no precipitation expected with little to no
moisture. Winds increase in the very weak to neutral cold
advection behind the front, with gusts developing. Forecast for
winds mainly on track for Monday, and used a blend of the
previous forecast and the slightly higher CONSSHORT guidance.
With little cold advection highs will be near or even slightly
higher then Sunday`s temperatures, with downslope flow.
High pressure remains to the west Monday night and Tuesday with
dry conditions persisting.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridge axis aloft moves across Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Ridge moves east of the area Wednesday. Weakening high
pressure across the region Tuesday night moves east of the
region Wednesday. This will give way to an approaching complex
low pressure system. Less clouds for SE CT and Eastern LI and
more clouds for NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley.
Jet stream difluence apparent for Wednesday night. Left front
quad of upper jet gets close to the local region late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. Strong baroclinic zone moves
in with strengthening coastal low moving south of Long Island
Wednesday night. This low is forecast to move northeast towards
Coastal New England Thursday into Thursday evening. Widespread
rain, heavy at times for Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Gusty easterly winds Wednesday night, eventually becoming more
westerly gusty flow Thursday.
The low will meander around the northeast Thursday night
through Friday and then goes into Canadian Maritimes Friday
night. Precipitation mode Thursday through Friday night becomes
more of showers. Deep closed low moves across with its colder
air aloft. Cold air advection will make for some mixing in with
snow for interior parts of the region Thursday night into Friday
morning as well as for Friday night. Otherwise, periodic rain
showers are forecast for the region.
For the weekend, deep closed low aloft moves northeast of the
region with more of a zonal flow coming into place. At the
surface, low pressure gradually moves farther northeast of the
local region and in its place, high pressure builds into the
local region from the west. Gusty westerly flow but decreasing
chances for showers from Saturday into Saturday night. Mainly
dry for next Sunday.
Warmest day of long term forecast to be Wednesday, upper 50s to
near 60 for highs. Highs forecast thereafter are near to below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains to the south and west of the area through
Monday, with a weak cold front passing through in the morning.
Weak high pressure then builds in from the west through Tuesday.
VFR. Light W winds overnight, generally 5 to 8 kt at the city
terminals, and mainly under 5 kt for outlying terminals. The
winds become NW towards 12z with gusts 20 to 25 kt by late
morning/early afternoon (15-18z). Gust will diminish in the
early evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Winds will vary 250-280 overnight. Timing of wind shift to the
NW behind the cold front in the morning and the start time of
gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night...VFR. NW gusts 20kt possible early in the evening.
Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...VFR during the day. MVFR/IFR at night with rain along
with E-SE gusts around 25kt.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain in the morning, then mostly MVFR in
the afternoon with a chance of showers. Gusts out of the W possible
later in the day and at night.
Friday...Pockets of MVFR early, otherwise VFR prevails with gusty
WNW winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak pressure gradient force remains across the forecast
waters tonight into Monday morning with high pressure to the
west and south of the waters. A weak cold front crosses the
waters Monday morning, and northwest gusts are expected to
increase to SCA levels by afternoon across the south shore
bays, ocean waters, eastern Long Island Sound, and the eastern
bays. Small craft conditions on the south bays continues through
early evening Monday, and the eastern bays and Sound into early
hours of Tuesday morning. SCA conditions remain on the ocean
waters through Monday night, and may linger into Tuesday
morning. Then with high pressure to the west Tuesday all waters
should remain below advisory levels.
Sub-SCA conditions on the waters to start the marine long term,
Tuesday night with weak pressure gradient in place. The weak
pressure gradient and sub-SCA conditions remain through
Wednesday. Would expect an increasing trend to winds and seas
Wednesday night with SCA becoming more likely. These more rough
conditions remain for the rest of the marine long term, through
Friday night. SCA looks likely for the timeframe for most waters
with possible gales at times. Gale possibility not high enough
for mention in HWO but will monitor subsequent forecasts for
any increases in gale potential.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NW winds less than 10 mph early this evening become light
westerly later this evening and overnight. Monday, with the
passage of a cold front northwest winds increase to 10 to 15
mph, gusting 20 to 30 mph by Monday afternoon. Minimum RH will
range from 40 to 45 percent across the Lower Hudson Valley into
interior southern Connecticut, and 35 to 40 percent along the
coast but down to 30 to 35 percent for portions of NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Only time period to monitor for any hydrologic impact would be
Wednesday night into early Thursday with some potential for heavy
rain. With how dry it has been, flash flood guidance has trended
higher for 1, 3, and 6 hour rainfall amounts. Looking at long range
ensemble forecast and spectrum of rainfall amounts, max 6 hour rain
amounts could reach as high as near 1.5 inches. This is less than
what is required for flash flooding, so not expecting flash flooding
but minor flooding will be possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Guidance indicates a bit more surge for Monday compared to
Sunday but with astronomical tides decreasing, water levels
will be about the same as the previous day for the daytime high
tide cycle. The extra surge is likely coming from an offshore
low and higher ocean seas building late tonight into Monday.
ETSS and ESTOFS surge guidance indicates near a 0.2 to 0.3 ft
increase in surge for Monday. Stevens Institute NY Hops surge
guidance also indicates a similar increase in surge for Monday.
Using a blend of ETSS and Stevens Institute NY Hops 50th
percentile, minor coastal flooding is forecast Monday, mainly
within the South Shore Bays of Southern Nassau NY and Southern
Queens NY as well as Southern Fairfield CT. For these
locations, the minor coastal flooding is expected to occur at
multiple locations with water levels exceeding minor benchmarks
by a few tenths of a foot. Therefore a coastal flood advisory is
in effect for Monday for these locations.
Other coastlines such as Southern Westchester NY and Southern
New Haven CT, Southern Suffolk NY and Lower NY Harbor are also
forecast to have minor coastal flooding, but for these
locations, this will be more isolated, with water levels just
touching the minor flood benchmark. For these locations, a
coastal flood statement is in effect for Monday to cover
localized minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EST Monday for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ332-340.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...