okx-afd on 2024-11-18

526
FXUS61 KOKX 182110
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
410 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A weak cold front passes through the area this morning. High
pressure will then move in from the west into tonight and
remain in control through Wednesday. Strengthening low moves
south of Long Island Wednesday night and then meanders within
the Northeast Thursday through Friday. The low makes more
eastward progress for the weekend, eventually moving into the
Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, high pressure will gradually
return this weekend and prevail into next Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure at the surface builds in tonight, with riding
aloft over the eastern Great Lakes and a cut off low and upper
level trough moving away from the area towards the east. Dry
weather continues tonight. Any cold air lags behind the cold
front that moved through earlier today, as lows are expected to
be above normal, in the lower 30s inland, to lower 40s across
the NYC metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure continues to build in to the area Tuesday
meanwhile, low pressure over the northern plains and western
Great Lakes region heads north into south central Canada. This
allows the old cold front to move toward the area tonight into
Wednesday as a warm front, but will remain south and east of the
region through the day Wednesday. Dry conditions will
therefore continue during this time frame, though a stray shower
cannot be ruled out at the very tail end of this period as some
ensembles show some precipitation coming in.

Temperatures continue to remain above normal, with highs in the
middle to upper 50s on Tuesday, and slightly warmer on
Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --* First widespread wetting rain becoming more likely for the region
Wednesday night through Thursday.

* Low chance for gusty winds near 40 to 45 mph late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

Large closed upper level low approaches the region Wednesday night
through Thursday night. The upper level low center then will be in
the Northeast to the north of the local region Friday through Friday
night. The upper level low moves farther northeast away from the
local region for the weekend, eventually allowing for upper level
flow to go to mainly zonal across the local area.

Vertical forcing for Wednesday night into early Thursday with
approaching SW to NE jet streak and upper level difluent
pattern. This will allow for rapid cyclogenesis along the NJ
coast late Wednesday night. The low then deepens and moves south
of Long Island Thursday with the low moving northeast of the
region Thursday night.

Have moderate rain in the forecast Wednesday night through early
Thursday. With this forcing, rain could be heavy at times. For late
Thursday through Friday night, precipitation mode becomes more of
showers. Late Thursday night, some snow showers could mix in across
parts of the interior, particularly the Lower Hudson Valley and
higher elevations of Western Passaic NJ. To a lesser extent, parts
of the Lower Hudson Valley could also have some snow showers late
Friday night. Otherwise, periodic rain showers are in the forecast
late Thursday through Friday night. Chances for rain showers lower
across the area Saturday with mainly dry conditions returning
Saturday night through next Monday.

The low meanders within the Northeast Friday through Friday night
before making more progress to the east for the weekend. The low is
forecast to go eventually into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday into
Saturday night. Meanwhile, across the local region, high pressure
will start to build in from the west Saturday and is forecast to
continue building in through next Monday.

For Wednesday night, forecast lows mainly near 40 to 47. Forecast
highs during the long term stay mainly in the 45 to 55 range.
Forecast lows for the rest of the nights stay mainly near 35 to 40
but for interior mainly low to mid 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak high pressure slowly builds in from the west.

VFR. NW winds with gusts 20-25 kt expected through early evening.
Gusts are forecast to diminish between 22-00z, but the NW flow will
continue through much of the TAF period. Winds may become a bit more
westerly late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Occasional gusts will be
possible Tuesday afternoon into the upper teens to near 20kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts possible after 00z.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night/Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday Night...MVFR/IFR with rain developing and E-SE gusts up to
35kt.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain in the morning, then mostly MVFR in
the afternoon with a chance of rain. Gusts up to 35kt possible with
direction becoming W in the afternoon.

Friday...Mainly MVFR with gusty W winds.

Saturday...MVFR possibly becoming VFR. Gusty W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds gusts have fallen below 25 kt across Peconic and
Gardiner`s, the south shore bays, and the western ocean zone, so
cancelled the SCA in these areas. For the remaining ocean zones
and the easter sound, continue the SCA with some observations
coming in at around 25 kt. Additionally, some 5 ft waves are
possible tonight with the ocean zones. The SCA goes through 1 am
tonight for the eastern sound and 6 am for the ocean zones.
However, with winds diminishing quicker than forecast, they will
likely come down sooner. Thereafter, conditions remain below SCA
levels for all waters through Wednesday.

Conditions start out below SCA thresholds for the forecast waters
Wednesday night but will become more rough with SCA conditions
overnight. This will likely continue through Thursday for all the
forecast waters.

Gale force winds will be possible for all waters Wednesday night
into Thursday. NBM 90th percentile wind gusts show this potential
with even some gusts near 40 kt but the NBM keeps wind gusts more
near the 25 to 30 kt range. BUFKIT from NAM and GFS shows possible
gales mixing down but mostly on the eastern ocean late Wednesday
night into Thursday. The gales might last just for a brief period.

With the uncertainty, held off on gale watch. However, the HWO has a
mention of the possibility of gales late Wednesday night into
Thursday.

SCA conditions linger on the ocean thereafter through the first half
of next weekend. For non-ocean waters, wind gusts are mostly below
SCA thresholds but chances for SCA wind gusts for Saturday and
Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --With high pressure building in, winds will diminish to less than
20 mph for Tuesday, and minimum RH values will be above 30%,
lessening the fire weather threat for Tuesday. However, and SPS
may be needed for portions of the forecast area as lack of rain
and thus fuels remain dry, especially across CT.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon.

Only time period to monitor for any hydrologic impact would be
Wednesday night into early Thursday with some potential for heavy
rain. Looking at long range ensemble forecast and spectrum of
rainfall amounts, max 6 hour rain amounts could reach as high as
near 2 inches. This is less than what is required for flash
flooding, so not expecting flash flooding but minor flooding will be
possible.

Total rainfall over a 24 hour period, that could reach as high as 2
to 2.5 inches. Still some uncertainty with this system as variance
of 24 hour rainfall amounts ranges from a few hundredths of an inch
to near 2.5 inches from 7PM Wednesday evening to 7PM Thursday
evening according to LREF. Forecast has a range of near 0.75 to 1
inch for eastern half of the region to near 1 to 1.25 inch for
western half of the region.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --With day of full moon getting farther in the past, astronomical
levels are lowering. Some tidal gauges just exceeded minor coastal
flood benchmarks with the daytime high tide cycle. With NW flow
continuing through Tuesday, would expect a further lowering of water
levels and downward trend in surge, so expecting the water levels of
tidal gauges to stay below minor coastal flood benchmarks.

Another time period of possible coastal flooding would be daytime
high tide cycles Thursday depending on the strength of the low, and
thereby magnitude and duration of easterly flow as well as fetch and
surge. This looks to be mostly minor coastal flooding.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...