okx-afd on 2024-11-18

071
FXUS61 KOKX 182322
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure moves in from the west into tonight and remains
in control through Wednesday. Strengthening low pressure moves
south of Long Island Wednesday night and then meanders within
the Northeast Thursday through Friday. The low makes more
eastward progress for the weekend, eventually moving into the
Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, high pressure will gradually
return this weekend and prevail into next Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Forecast mainly on track.

High pressure at the surface builds in tonight, with riding
aloft over the eastern Great Lakes and a cut off low and upper
level trough moving away from the area towards the east. Dry
weather continues tonight. Any cold air lags behind the cold
front that moved through earlier today, as lows are expected to
be above normal, in the lower 30s inland, to lower 40s across
the NYC metro area.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in to the area Tuesday
meanwhile, low pressure over the northern plains and western
Great Lakes region heads north into south central Canada. This
allows the old cold front to move toward the area tonight into
Wednesday as a warm front, but will remain south and east of the
region through the day Wednesday. Dry conditions will
therefore continue during this time frame, though a stray shower
cannot be ruled out at the very tail end of this period as some
ensembles show some precipitation coming in.

Temperatures continue to remain above normal, with highs in the
middle to upper 50s on Tuesday, and slightly warmer on
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --* First widespread wetting rain becoming more likely for the region
Wednesday night through Thursday.

* Low chance for gusty winds near 40 to 45 mph late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

Large closed upper level low approaches the region Wednesday
night through Thursday night. The upper level low center then
will be in the Northeast to the north of the local region Friday
through Friday night. The upper level low moves farther
northeast away from the local region for the weekend, eventually
allowing for upper level flow to go to mainly zonal across the
local area.

Vertical forcing for Wednesday night into early Thursday with
approaching SW to NE jet streak and upper level difluent
pattern. This will allow for rapid cyclogenesis along the NJ
coast late Wednesday night. The low then deepens and moves south
of Long Island Thursday with the low moving northeast of the
region Thursday night.

Have moderate rain in the forecast Wednesday night through
early Thursday. With this forcing, rain could be heavy at times.
For late Thursday through Friday night, precipitation mode
becomes more of showers. Late Thursday night, some snow showers
could mix in across parts of the interior, particularly the
Lower Hudson Valley and higher elevations of Western Passaic NJ.
To a lesser extent, parts of the Lower Hudson Valley could also
have some snow showers late Friday night. Otherwise, periodic
rain showers are in the forecast late Thursday through Friday
night.

Regarding the snow, particularly for interior NE NJ, Lower
Hudson Valley and interior SW CT, if the low ends up trending
stronger with more cold air advection behind it, the snow
amounts for these locations could increase with perhaps several
inches of snow, lesser amounts farther south and east. The low
if it trends stronger would bring about dynamic cooling allowing
for more effective cold air advection especially away from the
coast.

The low meanders within the Northeast Friday through Friday
night before making more progress to the east for the weekend.
The low is forecast to go eventually into the Canadian Maritimes
Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, across the local
region, high pressure will start to build in from the west
Saturday and is forecast to continue building in through next
Monday. Chances for rain showers lower across the area Saturday
with mainly dry conditions returning Saturday night through next
Monday.

For Wednesday night, forecast lows mainly near 40 to 47.
Forecast highs during the long term stay mainly in the 45 to 55
range. Forecast lows for the rest of the nights stay mainly near
35 to 40 but for interior mainly low to mid 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak high pressure slowly builds in from the west tonight and
remains in control through Tuesday. Occasional gusts will be
possible Tuesday morning, into the upper teens.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night/Wednesday...VFR. MVFR possible late Wednesday
along the coast.

Wednesday Night...MVFR/IFR with rain developing and E-SE gusts
up to 35kt.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain in the morning, then mostly MVFR in
the afternoon with a chance of rain. Gusts up to 35kt possible with
direction becoming W in the afternoon.

Friday...Mainly MVFR with gusty W winds.

Saturday...MVFR possibly becoming VFR. Gusty W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Conditions below SCA thresholds and expected to remain below SCA
thresholds through tonight. Cancelled remaining SCAs in effect.

Conditions remain below SCA levels for all waters through
Wednesday.

Conditions start out below SCA thresholds for the forecast waters
Wednesday night but will become more rough with SCA conditions
overnight. This will likely continue through Thursday for all the
forecast waters.

Gale force winds will be possible for all waters Wednesday night
into Thursday. NBM 90th percentile wind gusts show this potential
with even some gusts near 40 kt but the NBM keeps wind gusts more
near the 25 to 30 kt range. BUFKIT from NAM and GFS shows possible
gales mixing down but mostly on the eastern ocean late Wednesday
night into Thursday. The gales might last just for a brief period.

With the uncertainty, held off on gale watch. However, the HWO has a
mention of the possibility of gales late Wednesday night into
Thursday.

SCA conditions linger on the ocean thereafter through the first half
of next weekend. For non-ocean waters, wind gusts are mostly below
SCA thresholds but chances for SCA wind gusts for Saturday and
Saturday night.

.FIRE WEATHER...
With high pressure building in, winds will diminish to less than
20 mph for Tuesday, and minimum RH values will be above 30%,
lessening the fire weather threat for Tuesday. However, and SPS
may be needed for portions of the forecast area as lack of rain
and thus fuels remain dry, especially across CT.

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon.

Only time period to monitor for any hydrologic impact would be
Wednesday night into early Thursday with some potential for heavy
rain. Looking at long range ensemble forecast and spectrum of
rainfall amounts, max 6 hour rain amounts could reach as high as
near 2 inches. This is less than what is required for flash
flooding, so not expecting flash flooding but minor flooding will be
possible.

Total rainfall over a 24 hour period, that could reach as high as 2
to 2.5 inches. Still some uncertainty with this system as variance
of 24 hour rainfall amounts ranges from a few hundredths of an inch
to near 2.5 inches from 7PM Wednesday evening to 7PM Thursday
evening according to LREF. Forecast has a range of near 0.75 to 1
inch for eastern half of the region to near 1 to 1.25 inch for
western half of the region.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With day of full moon getting farther in the past, astronomical
levels are lowering. Some tidal gauges just exceeded minor coastal
flood benchmarks with the daytime high tide cycle. With NW flow
continuing through Tuesday, would expect a further lowering of water
levels and downward trend in surge, so expecting the water levels of
tidal gauges to stay below minor coastal flood benchmarks.

Another time period of possible coastal flooding would be daytime
high tide cycles Thursday depending on the strength of the low, and
thereby magnitude and duration of easterly flow as well as fetch and
surge. This looks to be mostly minor coastal flooding.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JM/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...