010
FXUS61 KOKX 192034
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday. Low
pressure strengthens south of Long Island Wednesday night into
Thursday and will linger nearby through Friday. The low will exit
across New England and Atlantic Canada this weekend, followed
by weak high pressure Sunday into Monday. A frontal system may
approach on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure ridge axis aloft shifts in from the west tonight with
not much change in the surface pressure. This will make it difficult
for showers reaching the ground in association with moisture along a
weak shortwave moving along the ridge axis. Enough guidance shows
light rain amounts in the vicinity of NYC, so included a slight
chance of showers here tonight. NBM was used for low
temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The ridge axis will remain overhead to start Wednesday, but should
slowly begin moving east in the afternoon and evening. The daytime
hours will remain dry as the main frontal system will still be
located well to our west. Clouds will likely be thickest across the
western half of the area for much of the day with some high level
clouds across the eastern half. This will yield mostly cloudy
conditions west and partly cloudy conditions east. Highs will reach
mostly 55-60.
A deep, closed upper low will spin across the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night. Jet energy rounding the base of the low will help
develop a new surface low along the Middle Atlantic coast. The low
will then quickly deepen into Thursday over the region as it shifts
generally north. Widespread rain will develop and move across the
area from west to east Wednesday night. The rain quickly becomes
moderate to locally heavy at times, especially after midnight, and
possibly still at this intensity during the morning commute - mainly
over LI and southern CT. The rain should then continue through
Thursday afternoon, but become light to occasionally moderate.
The strengthening low pressure will bring gusty winds, especially
near the coast. Gusts up to around 30 mph will be possible Wednesday
night into Thursday. If the low were to remain just south of Long
Island longer, winds could be a bit higher.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Colder air will move in Thursday night as the sfc low occludes and
moves up into SW New England and the lower Hudson Valley, and the
upper low moves overhead. This will introduce potential for wet snow
across the Lower Hudson Valley and far interior NE NJ Thu night
into Fri AM, especially in the higher elevations. The timing and
location of this process will ultimately determine the extent of the
colder air and where the most organized forcing sets up.
The strengthening low will bring gusty W-NW winds Thu night,
especially near the NYC metro area and across Long Island, with
gusts 30-35 mph possible.
The upper low should continue to spin over the area Fri into Fri
night, with rain still likely throughout Fri afternoon, tapering off
to sct snow/rain showers inland and rain showers in the NYC metro
area and along the coast.
There is still the slight chance of some rain/snow showers well
inland on Sat due to cyclonic low level flow and any lake effect
streamers that can make it down into the area.
The cold pool aloft will be deep over the area, so any warming temps
at the sfc should hit convective resulting in extensive low
cloudiness Fri into Sat, aside from any areas of forcing from both
the sfc and aloft.
The fcst goes dry Sunday into Monday with the low pulling up into
Atlantic Canada. A low approaching from the W could then bring
chance PoP with its leading warm front on Tue.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains in control today and moves off coast
tonight. VFR through TAF period with N/NW winds below 10kt
becoming light/variable tonight and much of Wednesday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon/evening...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday Night...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR with rain developing
and E-SE gusts up to 35kt.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain in the morning, then mostly MVFR in
the afternoon with a chance of rain. Gusts up to 35kt possible with
direction becoming W in the afternoon.
Friday...Mainly MVFR with periods of rain, rain/snow inland. Winds
15 to 25 kt.
Saturday...MVFR possibly becoming VFR late. NW winds gusting 20 to
25 kt.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. West winds gusting to 20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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High pressure over the waters through Wednesday will lead to
winds and seas below SCA levels. Low pressure develops and
strengthens over the waters Wednesday night into Thursday. This
will lead to increasing winds and building seas. Wind gusts
25-30 kt are likely Wednesday night through Thursday night.
There is also potential of gale force gusts. Still not enough
confidence in Gales to go with a watch at this point, but will
continue to mention the potential in the HWO.
SCA conds likely on all waters Thu night as low pressure moves
to the north and winds shift W-NW. Gales may be possible on the
ocean waters once again. The low will be slow moving and will
continue producing SCA conditions From Fri into Sunday. There is
a chance for occasional gales, especially on the ern ocean
waters on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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A Special Weather Statement remains for the rest of the day for
southern CT per collab with CT fire wx partners. Otherwise,
winds should be lighter and generally under 10 mph for the rest
of today. Minimum RH values will range from 35 to 45 percent.
Light winds are expected Wednesday along with minimum RH values
50 to 60 percent and another Special Weather Statement is
anticipated for southern CT. A wetting rain is then expected
Wednesday night and Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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A widespread 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is forecast from Wednesday
night through Friday, with most of this falling from late Wednesday
night through Thursday evening. No hydrologic impacts are expected
given the recent dry weather and progressive nature of any heavier
rainfall.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Although levels may approach minor flooding thresholds with the high
tide cycle Wednesday morning along the south shore back bays of
Nassau County, do not think a statement will be necessary at this
point.
Minor coastal flooding will be more possible with the daytime high
tide cycle Thursday. The extent of any minor coastal flooding will
be dependent on the magnitude and duration of E flow as well as
fetch and surge.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/BG
FIRE WEATHER...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC