okx-afd on 2024-11-22

002
FXUS61 KOKX 221049
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
549 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure retrogrades northwest of the area today then will
linger nearby through Friday night. The surface low heads into
eastern Canada by Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds in from
the west Sunday and Monday. A fast moving, weaker low pressure
system then skirts to the north of the area late Monday into
Tuesday, before high pressure briefly builds back in on Wednesday.
Another low pressure system then potentially impacts the area on
Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Not much has changed as far as the situaton discussed below as
of this early morning update. However, a few changes to the
forecast have been made. Temperatures have been raised a few
degrees in most places, but lowered in Orange county based on
current obs. Winds have also overperformed in many locations
compared to forecast, so they have been raised to account for
higher trending winds through the morning.

This morning, we have a low traversing and retrograding northwest
across western Connecticut into the Hudson Valley. Rain was
widespread overnight with several inches of snow accumulating at
higher elevations in NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Some
accumulation has also been seen in S Westchester Co., Fairfield Co,
and parts of Bergen Co. While accumulations are not significant in
these areas, it has stuck to the roads, which may make for issues
during the early morning commute in addition to areas already under
the Winter Weather Advisory.

A good dry slot has been feeding into the eastern side of the low
which has led to a sharp cut off in heavier precip for eastern
areas. As the low continues to retrograde northwest, rainfall is
expected to continue tapering SE to NW through the early
morning hours. Forcing is not like it was overnight, so the
rainfall and snowfall that is still occurring, is now much
lighter in nature.

This afternoon, the surface low with move northwest of the area
where it will get captured by an upper-level low located to our
west. Then, the now stacked low, will travel south into either E PA
or N NJ by Friday evening. During Friday afternoon and early
evening, mainly rainfall is expected, with most of it N & W of NYC,
closer to the periphery of the low.

Friday night, the stacked, occluding low will move east across the
area. As it does so, some additional light rainfall can be expected.
No snow is forecast, but not ruling out the possibility for a few
additional flakes mixed in rain for areas of far interior Orange,
Putnam and W Passaic counties. Late Friday night, the low will move
east of the area, positioning itself across off the New England
coast. AS it exits east, rainfall is expected to taper west to east
late Friday night. Overall, expecting around 0.25-0.75" of
additional rainfall this morning through tonight.

Stronger southerly gusty winds are expected to continue through the
morning as the pressure gradient holds and the low retrogrades to
our northwest. The low is expected top weaken somewhat by the
afternoon as it becomes stacked to our northwest and west, leading
to weaker S/SE winds. Then, as the low passes overhead, winds will
turn to a northerly direction, remaining weaker.

Cloud cover is expected to remain today into tonight due to
proximity of the low. Temperatures will reach the low-50s this
afternoon across eastern areas, while staying in the upper-30s in
the western interior, closer to the center of low pressure. Tonight,
lows drop in the lower-to-upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering rainfall in the area will quickly taper west to east
across the area Saturday morning as a stacked low continues to exit
towards the New England coast. This low will then move towards the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday night and remain there on Sunday. At
the same time, heights aloft will gradually rise from a ridge to our
west while surface pressure increases.

The main concern during this period is more gusty winds. As the low
exits and high pressure starts to move in, the weekend could remain
breezy through the weekend with NW winds on Saturday turning W on
Sunday. Through the weekend, gusts could reach up to 30 mph for
eastern portions of the area, peaking closer to 25 mph in western
areas.

The weekend will be partly cloudy on Saturday, leaning closer to
mostly sunny by Sunday. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper-40s
to low-50s. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper-40s to mid-50s.
Lows Saturday night will be in the mid-30s to low-40s. Sunday night
will be notably cooler with lows near or just below freezing in
interior areas, while coastal areas will drop into the
mid/upper-30s.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid and upper ridging builds in from the Central Plains on Monday
with another upper low ejecting out of the Central Plains midweek.

Monday looks dry and more seasonable temperature-wise, in the upper
40s to low 50s. Precipitation chances, rain at this point, looks to
enter the picture late Monday into Tuesday as a weak low pressure
system and associated fronts traverse New England. With increased
southwest flow on Tuesday, highs may be a bit above seasonable, with
upper 50s for most. After a dry and cooler day Wednesday a more
organized low pressure system approaches the area on Thanksgiving
from the southwest. Too early for sensible weather specifics this
far out with timing and strength differences, with GEFS sfc low
positioning anywhere from the Gulf coast to eastern PA.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will meander over the region today and then shift
offshore tonight.

Flight categories are mainly MVFR to start except in areas of snow
across the Lower Hudson Valley terminals (KHPN, KSWF) and interior
SW Connecticut where IFR is occurring. Otherwise, some light rain
remains possible through day break.

Additional snowfall accumulations of 1-2 inches possible through day
break at KHPN and KSWF. Light snow is likely to continue well north
and west of the NYC metro terminals after 12z and into early
afternoon, but little additional accumulation is expected, and the
snow may mix with some rain as well.

MVFR is likely to prevail through the day with VFR likely by this
afternoon. Conditions may then deteriorate late afternoon and evening
as additional light rain moves across most terminals. Much of this
rain likely stays west of KGON. SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30
kt early this morning. Some peak gusts up to 35 kt are possible.
Winds will continue to back towards the SSW and then S-SSE this
afternoon with gusts averaging 20-25 kt. Gusts should end late
afternoon with wind direction gradually shifting to the N or NE this
evening/tonight. Winds may go variable for a time as the low moves
back overhead.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for ceilings through this evening.

Timing of wind shifts may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late Friday night...Mainly MVFR with intermittent rain. Wet snow may
mix in N and W of the NYC metro.

Saturday...MVFR possible, mainly E of NYC terminals. Lingering light
rain possible well east of NYC terminals in the morning. WNW winds
gusting 25-30kt.

Sunday...VFR. WNW winds gusting to 20-30kt. Gusts diminish Sunday
night.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR late Monday night with a chance
of -SHRA.

Tuesday....MVFR with a chance of showers early. WNW wind gusts 15-20
kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --A Gale Warning is in effect for the ocean waters as a period of
35-40 knot gusts may continue until 1pm. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect elsewhere for 25 to 30 knot wind gusts
through this afternoon. Seas likely peak this morning around
9-12 ft before lowering to 5 feet tonight, still within SCA
criteria. Since seas remain elevated over the ocean waters, a
SCA will be needed once the Gale Warning is canceled or expires.
Winds fall below SCA criteria by Friday evening.

Winds and waves remain elevated across the ocean waters Saturday
into Sunday. SCA seas are likely, with the potential for near Gale
force gusts Saturday through Sunday. Thereafter, high pressure
builds in from the west with decreasing winds and seas into
Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
Any rainfall that occurs today should be on the lighter side, with
additional QPF between 0.25" and 0.75" through Friday night. There
are no hydrologic concerns with this additional rainfall.

No hydrologic impacts are expected this weekend through the middle
of next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...DBR/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DBR/BR
HYDROLOGY...DBR/BR