528
FXUS61 KOKX 222108
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
408 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure retrograding west of the area this evening, sinks
southeast of the region tonight, and then gets absorbed into an
offshore bombing low pressure tracking into the Gulf of Maine on
Saturday. This intense low slowly lifts northeast through the
Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. High pressure builds in
for the beginning of next week, followed by a frontal system
for the middle of the week. Low pressure may develop near the
area by next Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Stacked and filling upper low retrograding S across the
Catskills/Poconos this afternoon will slide SE of the region
this this evening/tonight and then absorb into a deepening
offshore low.
Cold pool instability and cold conveyor belt wrapping around the low
will expand light to moderate precipitation from the LoHud and
NE NJ across NYC/NJ metro and W LI/SW CT this evening as the
low slides SE with an additional 1/4" of QPF. For areas above
1000 ft elevation across LoHud and NE NJ, precip will continue
to fall as snow as temps hold at freezing with an additional 1
to 3 inches of accumulation likely thru evening. Below 750 ft,
wet snow or rain/snow mix will result in little to no
accumulation with temps generally above freezing. Winter
Weather Advisory continues through 10pm to address the
elevation dependent snow accumulation and hazardous driving
conds across Orange and W Passaic thru this evening.
Only plain rain expected for NYC/NJ metro and coastal plain through
tonight, more showery in nature across LI/CT this evening into the
overnight as the low tracks east. With a bit of elevated
instability, an isolated tstm with heavy downpours possible across
LI/S CT this evening thru overnight as higher theta-e/ weakly
unstable airmass gets advected in from off the ocean.
Late tonight, the stacked/occluding low will move southeast of the
area, with precipitation tapering from w to e overnight. Far eastern
areas may still see some lingering showers Sat morning in cyclonic
flow around offshore low.
Otherwise, gusty S/SW winds to 20 to 30 mph will gradually
subside thru evening, becoming light and variable overnight as
low pressure moves through, before increasing from the NW
towards daybreak Saturday.
Temps remain near seasonable levels, lower 30s across areas
well N&W of NYC, and upper 30s to lower 40s most elsewhere with
cloud cover and mixed low-levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Vigorous shortwave pivoting around the stacking upper low and
over the Gulf Stream tonight will deepen a new closed upper low
over the Gulf of Maine, which slides into the Canadian
Maritimes, Saturday into Sunday. This will result in bombing
low pressure over the Gulf of Maine on Saturday, absorbing low
pressure sliding se of the lcoal area, and drifting ne into the
Canadian maritimes Sat Night into Sun.
Cyclonic flow will keep cloud cover and scattered shower
activity across E LI/SE CT on Saturday, with partial clearing
across western portions of the area. Primary sensible weather
threat will be breezy conditions with sustained W/NW winds of
25 to 30 mph and gusts 35 to 45 mph. Isolated peak gusts to 50
mph possible Sat aft. With most foliage off trees, wind impacts
should be limited, with isolated tree damage and power outages
possible. Most susceptible may be higher elevations of Orange
County and western Passaic where snow load remains. Temps
slightly below seasonable for Saturday into the mid to upper 40s
interior, and lower 50s city/coast.
Pressure gradient remains tight Sat Night, with winds only
gradually subsiding to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph
overnight. Temps near seasonable with mixed low-levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An active pattern is suggested by the modeling thru next week.
For Sun, a deeply mixed airmass with strong subsidence should
produce windy conditions. The NBM may be a little to light on
the cloud cover based on the GFS time heights, but with the
strong subsidence did not adjust the numbers yet. Went with NBM
temps due to the expected mixing, but if the clouds hang in
mixing doesn`t look to be deep enough to yield NBM numbers.
Winds gusts around 35 mph expected attm with h85 winds 35-40kt.
The gradient relaxes and winds decrease Sun ngt with temps close
to the NBM.
Increasing clouds ahead of a warm front on Mon. No rain however
per the model consensus until Mon ngt when chances increase,
then continued chances on Tue ahead of the trailing cold front.
The best dynamics currently progged N of the cwa, so significant
rainfall is not fcst attm.
Fair and cooler on Wed behind the front. Dry wx is progged with
some wly wind gusts around 25 mph at times.
Temps in the 20s and 30s Thanksgiving mrng per the NBM which seemed
reasonable based on some increasing clouds ahead of another
potential sys.
The models keep the storm track S of the cwa Thanksgiving and
Fri, with chances of low pres development thru the period. This
would bring chances for rain at the coasts and rain or snow
interior. With a cold airmass to tap into, any low deep enough
to bring winds to the N could allow for some snow to the coasts.
Otherwise, progressive lows will keep the ely component in
place likely resulting in a bl too warm for snow there. There is
a high amount of uncertainty with this portion of the fcst 7-8
days out, but did go a little blw the NBM for high temps based
on the fairly high model consensus pops.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure will drift across eastern PA into early this
evening, then weaken and pass just south of Long Island tonight.
A stronger low will then develop east of New England later
tonight into Saturday.
With the weakening low passing nearby, cond will be variable across
the area:
At the NYC metros, expect light rain with MVFR cigs. Cigs should
lower to IFR tonight at KEWR/KTEB/KLGA for a time as winds diminish
and become variable. Late tonight winds shift N with passage of the
low and then NW by daybreak, increasing through the morning to 20-
25G30-35kt by afternoon, with MVFR cigs continuing until around
midday Sat.
At KSWF, a light rain/snow mix should continue into the evening,
with precip ending and cond improving to MVFR after midnight and
then VFR by midday Sat. WNW winds G20-25kt develop after 12Z,
increasing to G30kt by afternoon.
East of the NYC metros, SW flow 10 kt with ocnl gusts 15-20kt mainly
MVFR cond should also continue, with showers redeveloping. Winds
shift N by about 07Z-08Z and then NW by 11Z-12Z, gusting to 25-30 kt
after 15Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Wind direction a little uncertain this
evening as weakening low pressure passes just south.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: BKN VFR cigs. NW winds 20-25 kt with
G30-35kt.
Saturday night: VFR. WNW winds 15-20G25kt.
Sunday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20 kt with G25-30kt, diminishing at
night.
Monday...VFR.
Monday night: Showers/MVFR likely after midnight.
Tuesday: Showers/MVFR likely in the morning especially east of the
NYC metros, otherwise VFR. W winds G20kt.
Wednesday: VFR. W winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA winds on all waters briefly falling below SCA criteria this
evening into tonight as low pressure moves through, before
ramping up to SCA once again Saturday morning as offshore low
rapidly deepens.
Gale conditions expected to develop on the ocean later Saturday
morning and continue into Sun Am, with marginal gale conditions
likely for all nearshore waters during this time.
Winds will be close to gale through Sun, then winds decrease on
Mon with seas falling blw sca lvls on the ocean during the day.
A frontal sys could bring sca cond to the waters Tue and Wed,
especially the ocean. Low chc of sca cond on Thu, with the probs
highest on the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Additional QPF around 1/4" through tonight. No hydrologic
impacts are expected through the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
NYZ067.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV