870
FXUS61 KOKX 231448
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
948 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure, centered near Nova Scotia, meanders across the
Canadian Maritime into this evening. The low will then slowly
weaken and track across the Canadian Maritimes tonight through
Monday. At the same time, high pressure over the mid section of
the country builds slowly east. An area of low pressure will
then pass to the northwest Monday night into Tuesday, sending a
frontal system through the area. Another area of low pressure
may pass just south of the area late Thursday into Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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An upper low was moving south and east of eastern Long Island
this morning, and a few showers continue across eastern Long
Island into southeastern Connecticut. Updated the probabilities
areal coverage and timing to account for the slow progression of
the upper low this morning into early afternoon, as satellite
showing slow movement east/northeast. The surface ow was
centered just south of Nova Scotia at 14Z, and may deepen
slightly this morning while meandering through the Canadian
Maritime. At the same time, high pressure builds east from the
mid section of the country. The pressure gradient between the
two will result in a prolonged period of strong NW flow through
the weekend. Winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35
to 45 mph, strongest this afternoon. The depth of the mixed
layer is on average about 900 mb, with winds at the top of the
layer 40kt, but averaging 30 to 35 kt throughout the mixed
layer. Skies will also gradually clear from west to east through
the day.
Highs today will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This is close
to normal but will feel considerably cooler with the winds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty NW winds will continue into Sunday due to the strong
pressure gradient across the region between low pressure over
the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building in from the
west. Gusts will diminish this evening, but still 20 to 30 mph,
strongest near the coast. There is some uncertainty whether or
not inland areas decouple with gusts becoming more occasional or
stopping all together. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, a bit above normal, mainly due to winds expected to
stay up.
For Sunday, NW gusts are expected to be a bit weaker, more in
the 30 to 35 mph range. Highs will also top off near normal in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Approaching high pressure will allow winds to fall off Sunday
night, allowing for lows closer to normal. A milder W/SW flow on
Monday will send temperatures up a few degrees, generally in the
lower and mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active pattern is suggested by the modeling thru next week.
Increasing clouds ahead of a warm front on Mon. No rain however
per the model consensus until Mon ngt when chances increase,
then continued chances on Tue ahead of the trailing cold front.
The best dynamics currently progged N of the cwa, so significant
rainfall is not fcst attm.
Fair and cooler on Wed behind the front. Dry wx is progged with
some wly wind gusts around 25 mph at times.
Temps in the 20s and 30s Thanksgiving mrng per the NBM which seemed
reasonable based on some increasing clouds ahead of another
potential sys.
The models keep the storm track S of the cwa Thanksgiving and
Fri, with chances of low pres development thru the period. This
would bring chances for rain at the coasts and rain or snow
interior. With a cold airmass to tap into, any low deep enough
to bring winds to the N could allow for some snow to reach the
coasts Otherwise, progressive lows will keep the ely component
in place likely resulting in a boundary layer too warm for snow
there. There is a high amount of uncertainty with this portion
of the fcst 7 days out, but did go a little blw the NBM for high
temps based on the fairly high model consensus pops.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure slowly builds in from the west through Sunday.
VFR. NW winds 15-25kt with gusts 25-35kt. Winds weaken, but remain
strong, turning WNW in the evening and overnight at 15-20kt with
gusts 22-28kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Winds should prevail at or south/left of 310 magnetic. A peak gust
of 36-40kt is possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20 kt with G25-30kt, diminishing at night.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Increasing chances of rain Monday night,
eventually becoming likely for most terminals. MVFR or lower
possible Monday night.
Tuesday: Showers/MVFR likely in the day especially east of the NYC
metros, otherwise VFR. SW-W winds G20kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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No changes to the winds and seas at this time. with a NW gale
forecast across the ocean waters into Sunday afternoon, and
into early this evening for the non-ocean waters. This is due
to a deep low meandering through the Canadian Maritime into
evening. The low will then slowly weaken and lift NE into early
next week, while high pressure builds in from the west. Seas
build to 6 to 9 ft on the ocean by this evening, and 3 to 6 ft
across eastern LI Sound. Winds and seas will gradually diminish
Sunday afternoon and night with sub-SCA conditions expected by
Monday morning.
A frontal sys could bring sca cond to the waters Tue and Wed,
especially the ocean. Low chc of sca cond on Thu, with the probs
highest on the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC/BR
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW