567
FXUS61 KOKX 241441
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
941 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritime slowly weakens and
and lifts northeast to start the new week. Meanwhile, high
pressure builds in slowly from the southwest, and moves offshore
Monday afternoon. An approaching frontal system moves through
the area late Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure will likely
impact the area during the end of the week before exiting to
the northeast next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mostly on track with only minor adjustments made.
Strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritime today will
slowly weaken through tonight, while weak high pressure builds
in from the southwest. This will result in another day of strong
west winds, while somewhat weaker, still gusting 30 to 40 mph.
There will be few stratocu this afternoon, with some mid and
high levels associated with an upper jet, mainly passing southwest
of the area. Thus, partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will be
near normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Gusts will gradually diminish through tonight, but the boundary
layer looks mixed enough to limit radiational cooling. Have
opted to go on the warmer side of the guidance, from the lower
30s well inland to around 40 at the coast. This is a few degrees
above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging both aloft and at the surface moves through the area on
Monday with temperatures just a bit warmer. West winds will
become southwest later in the day as the surface ridge axis
passes offshore.
An amplifying upper trough across the Upper Midwest into the
Central Plains tracks east on Monday, becoming negatively tilted
as it works across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states Monday
night, and then across eastern Canada and the northeast on
Tuesday. Stayed with a consensus forecast, but deviated some
from the National Blend of Models (NBM) based on some slowing of
the system noted in the 00Z guidance, in particular the GFS.
Regardless, this will send a frontal system across the area late
Monday night into Tuesday with a cold frontal passage Tuesday
afternoon. A band of moderate rain showers will likely precede
the front with the potential for a few tenths of an inch of
rainfall. Pre-frontal SW winds, become W behind the front with
gusts 20 to 25 mph.
Milder temperatures are forecast in the warm advection Monday
night into Tuesday with temperatures expected to be about 5 to 8
degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Temperatures approach climatological normals on Wednesday with lower
heights and nearly zonal flow aloft with passing surface high
pressure. Tuesday night through Wednesday night looks dry with
partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Cloud cover doesn`t really
build in from an approaching system until Wednesday night.
Thanksgiving into Friday, we see our next system. Unfortunately
there is very little consensus among the models on a confident
solution. The 00Z ECMWF develops a deep low to our west in the
interior Thanksgiving morning that then passes eastward over the
area later in the day, exiting northeast through Friday. This would
lead to a wet and windy forecast with some possible snow in the
interior on the backside of the system Thanksgiving night. The 00Z
GDPS, ICON, and GFS all develop the low nearby to the west and south
which then passes near or to the south of our area, but the GFS has
a much weaker low, only deepening it further when it tracks up to
the New England coast. Based on various 00Z ensemble guidance, low
placement, strength, and timing vary quite a lot. Given the
uncertainty regarding the Thanksgiving system, have gone mainly with
a blended model solution (NBM) which mainly brings rain with some
interior snowfall Thanksgiving into Friday. Depending on the
outcome, there is a chance we could see breezy weather, as well.
The forecast for the Saturday-Sunday holiday weekend is a little
more confident. Nearly all model solutions develop a deepening
trough over the eastern US which should aid in a big cooldown, with
some of our coldest temperatures expected so far this season. The
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) picks up on this as well, with high
confidence in the chance of colder than normal temperatures in their
6-10 day temperature outlook. Highs are expected in the low-40s to
mid-30s with lows in the low-30s to upper-teens. It will likely stay
mostly dry through the weekend, but some models hint at a few
surface trough features that could lead to passing clouds and
isolated precip chances. This will also be aided by positive
vorticity advection wrapped around the deepening upper-level trough
and a few hints of divergence aloft from the jet stream mainly
focused to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly builds in from the west today as deep low
pressure remains over the Canadian Maritime. The low weakens and
moves east tonight into early Monday as the high builds over the
region.
VFR.
Gusty W to NW winds, 20-30kt, continue through the day and
likely remain to the left of 310 magnetic. Gusts and winds
gradually diminish toward sunset, with gusts ending 03Z to 04Z.
Peak gusts 30-35kt possible, late morning, into the afternoon.
Sustained winds drop below 10kt by 09Z tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
There is a chance that gusts and winds diminish a couple of
hours earlier than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Showers/MVFR likely during the morning. VFR in the
afternoon with W gusts 20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR with rain, mainly after the morning push. Chance
of E-NE gusts 25-30kt in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gales will continue on the ocean waters through early this
afternoon, possibly lingering east of Moriches Inlet into the
late afternoon. Elsewhere, expect SCA conditions through the
first half of tonight. The ocean will likely see SCA conditions
through about daybreak Monday. High pressure then moves through
the waters Monday with sub-SCA conditions. A frontal system
moves through the area late Monday night into Tuesday with a
return to SCA likely. High pressure then follows on Wednesday.
Chances for SCA criteria increase on Thu and Fri as low pressure
develops in the area. Gales possible on Fri, but uncertainty is
still high.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR/MET
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW