694
FXUS61 KOKX 241824
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
124 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritime slowly weakens and
and lifts northeast to start the new week. Meanwhile, high
pressure builds in slowly from the southwest, and moves offshore
Monday afternoon. An approaching frontal system moves through
the area late Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure will likely
impact the area during the end of the week before exiting to
the northeast next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The forecast remains mostly on track with only minor
adjustments made.
Strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritime today will
slowly weaken through tonight, while weak high pressure builds
in from the southwest. This will result in another day of strong
west winds, while somewhat weaker, still gusting 30 to 40 mph.
There will be few stratocu this afternoon, with some mid and
high levels associated with an upper jet, mainly passing
southwest of the area. Thus, partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be near normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Gusts will gradually diminish through tonight, but the boundary
layer looks mixed enough to limit radiational cooling. Have
opted to go on the warmer side of the guidance, from the lower
30s well inland to around 40 at the coast. This is a few degrees
above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging both aloft and at the surface moves through the area on
Monday with temperatures just a bit warmer. West winds will
become southwest later in the day as the surface ridge axis
passes offshore.
An amplifying upper trough across the Upper Midwest into the
Central Plains tracks east on Monday, becoming negatively tilted
as it works across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states
Monday night, and then across eastern Canada and the northeast
on Tuesday. Stayed with a consensus forecast, but deviated some
from the National Blend of Models (NBM) based on some slowing of
the system noted in the 00Z guidance, in particular the GFS.
Regardless, this will send a frontal system across the area late
Monday night into Tuesday with a cold frontal passage Tuesday
afternoon. A band of moderate rain showers will likely precede
the front with the potential for a few tenths of an inch of
rainfall. Pre-frontal SW winds, become W behind the front with
gusts 20 to 25 mph.
Milder temperatures are forecast in the warm advection Monday
night into Tuesday with temperatures expected to be about 5 to 8
degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Temperatures approach climatological normals on Wednesday with
lower heights and nearly zonal flow aloft with passing surface
high pressure. Tuesday night through Wednesday night looks dry
with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Cloud cover doesn`t
really build in from an approaching system until Wednesday
night.
Thanksgiving into Friday, we see our next system. Unfortunately
there is very little consensus among the models on a confident
solution. The 00Z ECMWF develops a deep low to our west in the
interior Thanksgiving morning that then passes eastward over the
area later in the day, exiting northeast through Friday. This
would lead to a wet and windy forecast with some possible snow
in the interior on the backside of the system Thanksgiving
night. The 00Z GDPS, ICON, and GFS all develop the low nearby to
the west and south which then passes near or to the south of
our area, but the GFS has a much weaker low, only deepening it
further when it tracks up to the New England coast. Based on
various 00Z ensemble guidance, low placement, strength, and
timing vary quite a lot. Given the uncertainty regarding the
Thanksgiving system, have gone mainly with a blended model
solution (NBM) which mainly brings rain with some interior
snowfall Thanksgiving into Friday. Depending on the outcome,
there is a chance we could see breezy weather, as well.
The forecast for the Saturday-Sunday holiday weekend is a
little more confident. Nearly all model solutions develop a
deepening trough over the eastern US which should aid in a big
cooldown, with some of our coldest temperatures expected so far
this season. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) picks up on
this as well, with high confidence in the chance of colder than
normal temperatures in their 6-10 day temperature outlook. Highs
are expected in the low-40s to mid-30s with lows in the low-30s
to upper-teens. It will likely stay mostly dry through the
weekend, but some models hint at a few surface trough features
that could lead to passing clouds and isolated precip chances.
This will also be aided by positive vorticity advection wrapped
around the deepening upper-level trough and a few hints of
divergence aloft from the jet stream mainly focused to our
south.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds in from the west this afternoon as
deep low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritime. The low
weakens and moves east tonight into early Monday as the high
builds over the region.
VFR.
Gusty W to NW winds, 20-30kt, continue this afternoon, and
likely remain to the left of 310 magnetic. A few peak gusts
early this afternoon may be 30-35kt. Gusts and winds gradually
diminish toward sunset, with gusts ending 01Z to 02Z. A lighter,
10kt or less, WNW flow then continues into Monday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: VFR.
Tuesday: Showers with MVFR, periods of IFR possible. Showers
ending late in the afternoon into the evening, becoming VFR. SW
winds gusting 20-25kt along the coast..
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers.
Friday: VFR with a chance of showers. MVFR with rain and snow
showers at KSWF. NW/W wind gusting 20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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The gale warnings were allowed to expire on the ocean. There may
be a gust to two to gale force east of Moriches Inlet this
afternoon, but advisory conditions should prevail. A SCA is in
effect for all ocean zones through tonight, and might need to be
extended a little into Monday morning east of Moriches Inlet.
SCA remains unchanged elsewhere, although there`s a chance that
gusts could still reach advisory criteria on eastern LI Sound
and Peconic/Gardiners Bays for a fews hours after the advisory
expires at 1 AM late tonight. High pressure and a weak pressure
gradient will otherwise bring relatively tranquil conditions on
all waters Monday and Monday night. Winds and seas then increase
Tuesday with the passage of a cold front. Advisory thresholds
will probably be reached on the ocean during Tuesday and Tuesday
night, followed by improving conditions Wednesday.
Chances for SCA criteria increase again on Thu and Fri as low
pressure develops in the area. Gales possible on Fri, but
uncertainty is still high.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW