624
FXUS61 KOKX 262039
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in tonight and slide south of the area on
Wednesday. Low pressure will then impact the area on Thanksgiving
Day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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The cold front is now east of the area along with the thick low
cloud cover and showers. Dry conditions can be expected for the rest
of the afternoon and through tonight. Trended the wind and wind gust
forecast down a bit, but 25 mph northwest gusts are possible through
the first half of tonight across mainly coastal locations. Dry
air filters into the area with the northwest flow, with dewpoints
dropping to the 20s by early Wednesday morning.
The NBM was used for much of the near term forecast. The NBM 10th
percentile and some global guidance was blended in for Td to account
for the NBM high Td bias in dry flow regimes.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Zonal flow is expected aloft on Wednesday as high pressure will be
in control at the surface. The surface high will start off centered
to our southwest and move eastward through the day. A dry day can be
expected, with sun in the morning hours. Mid and upper level clouds
look to move in during the late morning and early afternoon
ahead of the next system. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low
50s.
Low pressure is still set to bring a wet and gusty Thanksgiving to
the area. A surface low will approach from the southwest ahead of a
broad upper level trough and deepen off the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Although still minor differences in forecast track from the
guidance, everything is still hinting at an all plain rain event,
with potentially some snow or rain/snow mix to start across the far
interior of the Lower Hudson Valley. The latest ECMWF continues
to be the farthest north. This track would support a warmer
solution and less snow or rain/snow mix across the interior.
Model soundings of the NAM and GFS support all rain at the coast
through much of the inland areas with a boundary layer that is
too warm. At the onset the boundary layer may be cold enough at
far northern interior locations to support snow. Even with snow
falling, 2 meter temperatures will be marginal. Trended snowfall
totals down and now only have a few tenths across Western
Bergen, Orange and Putnam. All plain rain is expected everywhere
by the late morning hours. Rain will be light to moderate and
widespread. An 18 to 24 hour total of 0.75 to 1.00 inches is
forecast. The area will likely be dry by midnight and a cold,
dry northwest flow will start up again.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Key Point(s):
* A prolonged period of predominantly dry and seasonably cold
conditions until further notice
In the wake of low pressure moving away, an cP air mass moves in for
the end of the week and into the weekend. A stable long wave pattern
is highly suggestive from NWP global guidance. A longwave trough
should lock in across the region with spokes of upper level energy
moving quickly through this weekend and into early next week. Due to
the overall progressive nature of the long wave pattern with the
northern branch becoming dominant and a lack of Pacific or Southern
stream energy getting into the pattern the expectation is for a
prolonged stretch of dry conditions. Any upper level energy in the
northern branch should get strung out preventing low pressure
development closer to the coast, with any development remaining
offshore through early next week.
For Friday night there will be some positive vorticity advection
courtesy of a spoke of energy rotating around the upper level low
which will be anchored just south of Hudson Bay. No guidance is
suggestive of any backing of the mid and upper level flow, thus the
upper level energy will not be able to interact with any additional
lifting mechanism with negative thickness advection in place. Thus
mainly just clouds are expected across the region Friday night into
early Saturday. For Friday night have gone with a period of slight
chance to low end chance PoPs for a few rain / snow showers.
Sensible weather impacts are not expected as the better lift is
expected to remain well offshore. Slight chance PoPs have been
inserted for far eastern sections late Monday and Tuesday for snow
showers. At this time the chances are remote due to the long wave
trough axis being too far to the east.
With blustery conditions on generally a W-NW flow wind chills are
likely to run 7 to 10 degrees colder than actual air temperatures at
times. Temperatures overall are anticipated to average a good 5 to
10 degrees below normal throughout the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front continues to push across the eastern terminals.
High pressure will continue to builds in from the west tonight into
Wednesday.
Conditions have improved to all terminals except KGON where VFR
conditions are expected in the next hour or so. VFR conditions are
then expected through the remainder of the TAF period.
W-NW 10-15kt G20-25kt behind the cold front. Winds subside this
evening. Gusts will linger the longest at the coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible for wind gusts this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday night: Chance of rain with MVFR late, except chance
rain/snow at KSWF.
Thursday: Rain with IFR conditions likely, possibly a rain/snow
mix early at KSWF. E-NE winds G20kt in the afternoon, becoming
NW at night.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt.
Saturday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
Sunday: VFR. W/SW winds G20kt
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters. Conditions will
be marginal, with 25 kt gusts possible everywhere and 5 ft seas
possible on the ocean waters. Sub-SCA conditions are expected by
Wednesday morning. SCA conditions return with low pressure on
Thanksgiving. 25 knots are more likely on the ocean waters for
right now, with 5-6 ft seas. Winds may fall short of criteria
across all other waters.
Marginal small craft conditions for mainly the ocean waters early
Friday morning on a NW wind. Otherwise, sub small craft conditions
should prevail Friday afternoon and evening. Another period of
marginal small craft conditions occurs late Friday night into
Saturday with winds gusting 20 to 25 kt for all waters and the
eastern ocean waters having seas of 4 to 5 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Low pressure will bring light to moderate rain on Thanksgiving Day.
Totals are expected to be around 0.75 to 1.00 inches over an 18 to
24 hour period. No flooding hydrologic impacts are expected.
Predominantly dry though the long term period, thus there are
no hydrologic concerns.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/JT
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT