okx-afd on 2024-11-28

527
FXUS61 KOKX 281155
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
655 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will impact the area today, departing to
the northeast late this afternoon. Te region will then be in
between broad low pressure to our north and a polar high
building into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week. High pressure then remains over the
southeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the low moving
farther to the northeast of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning with just some minor adjustment
reflect current temperatures. Otherwise, a low pressure system
will impact the area today. No real significant changes in the
forecast as the low approaches from the southwest under a
shortwave embedded in a broader upper level trough. The low will
deepen as it tracks over the area. There continues to be good
agreement across the global guidance and CAMs that the low moves
directly over the area, from NYC and northeastward through
southern CT. Temperatures this morning remain at 32 degrees or
above at our coldest sites in the CWA and temperatures are
forecast to continue to rise as the low approaches.

As a result, other than a rain/snow mix to start a some isolated
locations, expect this to be an all rain event. Some light rain has
already been observed west of NYC. The rain will continue to
overspread the entire region early this morning. The rain will then
taper off during the late afternoon. On average, expect rainfall
amounts around 0.75, with some locally higher amounts possible.
No flooding is expected.

Winds will be from the south this morning, but shift to the
W/NW behind the low. Once the winds shift, winds will increase
with sustained winds late Thursday afternoon about 15 mph with
gusts 25 to 30 mph.

Highs today will range from the lower 40s across Orange county to
the mid 50s across Long Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry conditions are expected Thanksgiving night through Saturday
night as the area then be in between broad low pressure to our
n north/northeast and a polar high building into the Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys.

A breezy W-NW flow will usher in a drier and colder airmass to
the area through the Short Term period. Highs on Friday will be
in the 40s and Friday night most places will fall below
freezing. With 10 to 15 mph winds Friday night, wind chill
values will be down in the teens and low 20s.

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night fall below freezing across the
entire CWA.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A longwave upper trough will dominate over eastern North
America through the period, weakening somewhat Monday as a
shortwave moves into the trough for Tuesday. Meanwhile, a
continental polar air mass moves in as high pressure slowly
builds southeast from the Plains states toward the southeast,
then remains over the southeastern states Tuesday into
Wednesday. Also, a weak surface trough remains east of the Mid
Atlantic. Temperatures will be generally 5-10 degrees below the
seasonal average through the period, and a W-NW flow will
dominate, becoming gusty at times during the day. Wind chills
should run about 7-10 degrees colder than air temperatures at
times, bottoming out in the teens/lower 20s each night and
topping out in the lower 30s each daytime.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure approaches and passes near the terminals today,
quickly heading to the east this afternoon and to the Maine
coast tonight.

Any remaining VFR terminals will be quickly lowering to MVFR 12Z
to 13Z, and then to IFR soon after, with light rain. Conditions
will remain IFR to start the afternoon before improving back to
MVFR as the low pressure departs to the east, with VFR likely
22-03Z from west to east.

Winds will be NE to E this morning, and then depending on the
track of the low, which is forecast to pass over or near the
NYC terminals this afternoon, winds may briefly become light,
and then switch to a more southerly or southeasterly flow after
16Z. With the low moving to the east during the afternoon winds
shift to the W-NW and become gusty 20-25kt. A few peak gusts may
reach 30kt. With the low departing to the east late tonight
gusts end with the wind diminishing to 10kt or less.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to wind direction forecast mid to late this
morning into early afternoon, which is highly dependent on the
eventual track of the low pressure. Depending on the track of
the low, winds may briefly become light this afternoon.

Amendments possible for flight category timing changes.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR. W-WSW wind 10-15 kt.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions gradually spread across the area waters today
as low pressure passes near the area. The strongest winds however
wont occur until once the low departs to the northeast and gradually
deepens which won`t start to occur until late afternoon and
overnight. Tonight, small craft conditions are in effect for all the
area waters. The low will move far enough away on Friday for winds
to diminish a bit, however seas will remain at or slightly above 5
ft on the ocean waters. Wind and seas subside below SCA levels for
Saturday, however some occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible
at times.

Marginal SCA gusts in a westerly flow are possible on the ocean
waters Sunday and Sunday night while the non ocean waters remain
below advisory levels. Monday and Tuesday winds and seas will be
below advisory levels across all the forecast waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Low pressure will bring on average 0.75 inches of rain to the area
on Thanksgiving Day. No hydrologic impacts are expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ331-335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST
     Friday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET