740
FXUS61 KOKX 281512
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1012 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will impact the area today, departing to
the northeast late this afternoon. Te region will then be in
between broad low pressure to our north and a polar high
building into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week. High pressure then remains over the
southeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the low moving
farther to the northeast of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track this morning with just some minor
adjustments to reflect current temperature trends. Otherwise, a
low pressure system will impact the area today. No real
significant changes in the forecast as the low approaches from
the southwest under a shortwave embedded in a broader upper
level trough. The low will deepen as it tracks over the area.
There continues to be good agreement across the global guidance
and CAMs that the low moves directly over the area, from
NYC/Western LI and northeastward through southern CT.
Temperatures this morning remain at 33 degrees or above at our
coldest sites in the CWA and temperatures are forecast to continue
to rise as the low approaches. Temperatures aloft are now too
warm to support snow, so a cold rain should be the case across
the NW half of Orange County.

Winds will shift from NE-E to the south toward noon, then shift
west to NW this afternoon behind the low. Once the winds shift,
winds will increase with sustained winds late this afternoon
about 15 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph.

Highs today will range from the lower 40s across Orange county to
the mid 50s across Long Island. Dry and breezy for tonight with
lows from the mid-upper 20s in Orange County to mid upper 30s in
the city.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry conditions are expected through Saturday night as the area
will be in between broad low pressure to our north/northeast
and a polar high building into the Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys.

A breezy W-NW flow will usher in a drier and colder airmass to
the area through the Short Term period. Highs on Friday will be
in the 40s and Friday night most places will fall below
freezing. With 10 to 15 mph winds Friday night, wind chill
values will be down in the teens and low 20s.

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night fall below freezing across the
entire CWA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A longwave upper trough will dominate over eastern North
America through the period, weakening somewhat Monday as a
shortwave moves into the trough for Tuesday. Meanwhile, a
continental polar air mass moves in as high pressure slowly
builds southeast from the Plains states toward the southeast,
then remains over the southeastern states Tuesday into
Wednesday. Also, a weak surface trough remains east of the Mid
Atlantic. Temperatures will be generally 5-10 degrees below the
seasonal average through the period, and a W-NW flow will
dominate, becoming gusty at times during the day. Wind chills
should run about 7-10 degrees colder than air temperatures at
times, bottoming out in the teens/lower 20s each night and
topping out in the lower 30s each daytime.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low pressure moves near the terminals late this morning into
the afternoon before departing to the northeast this evening.

Conditions will continue to lower to IFR in rain. IFR should
prevail into the early afternoon before improving to MVFR as the
low pressure departs to the east. VFR is then likely towards
sunset to 00-03z out east.

Winds will generally be NE-ESE to start, but will shift to the
E-SE briefly late this morning and early afternoon as the low
passes by the terminals. A few coastal terminals could briefly
go S. Winds will then quickly shift to the W-NW and become gusty
mid to late afternoon, 20-25 kt. A few peak gusts may reach 30
kt late afternoon and early evening. With the low departing to
the east late tonight gusts end with the wind diminishing to 10
kt or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Adjustments to wind direction expected into early afternoon due
to the exact track of the low pressure.

High confidence in wind direction becoming NW after 18-19z as
the low departs to the east.

Start time of gusts this afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours.

Amendments possible for flight category timing changes.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR. W-WSW gusts 15-20 kt, mainly in the afternoon.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Small craft conditions continue for the most part. With the
center of low pressure just off to the south this morning along
with a low level jet shifting through, a few gale force gusts
may occur on the ocean. After a lull in winds with the low
passing through, winds pick up again this afternoon into tonight
with occasional gusts to 35kt still possible on the ocean
waters. Small craft conditions are otherwise in effect for all
the area waters tonight into Friday. The low will move far
enough away on Friday for winds to diminish a bit, however seas
will remain at or slightly above 5 ft on the ocean waters. Wind
and seas subside below SCA levels for Saturday, however some
occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible at times.

Marginal SCA gusts in a westerly flow are possible on the ocean
waters Sunday and Sunday night while the non ocean waters remain
below advisory levels. Monday and Tuesday winds and seas will be
below advisory levels across all the forecast waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Additional rainfall of around a half inch is expected today. No
hydrologic impacts are expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ331-335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET