okx-afd on 2024-11-28

554
FXUS61 KOKX 281750
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1250 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will impact the area today, departing to
the northeast late this afternoon. Te region will then be in
between broad low pressure to our north and a polar high
building into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week. High pressure then remains over the
southeastern states Tuesday and Wednesday with the low moving
farther to the northeast of the region.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The forecast has been updated to account for rain ending a
little sooner than previously anticipated. Expecting the back
edge of the rain shield to be east of Montauk by 3-4PM. Also now
expecting some sunshine to break out for some spots over the
wester half of the forecast area by sundown. Breezy, with winds
shifting NW-W this afternoon and gusts 25-30 mph.

Highs today will range from the lower 40s across Orange County
to the mid 50s across Long Island. Dry and breezy for tonight
with lows from the mid-upper 20s in Orange County to mid upper
30s in the city.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions are expected through Saturday night as the area
will be in between broad low pressure to our north/northeast
and a polar high building into the Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys.

A breezy W-NW flow will usher in a drier and colder airmass to
the area through the Short Term period. Highs on Friday will be
in the 40s and Friday night most places will fall below
freezing. With 10 to 15 mph winds Friday night, wind chill
values will be down in the teens and low 20s.

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night fall below freezing across the
entire CWA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A longwave upper trough will dominate over eastern North
America through the period, weakening somewhat Monday as a
shortwave moves into the trough for Tuesday. Meanwhile, a
continental polar air mass moves in as high pressure slowly
builds southeast from the Plains states toward the southeast,
then remains over the southeastern states Tuesday into
Wednesday. Also, a weak surface trough remains east of the Mid
Atlantic. Temperatures will be generally 5-10 degrees below the
seasonal average through the period, and a W-NW flow will
dominate, becoming gusty at times during the day. Wind chills
should run about 7-10 degrees colder than air temperatures at
times, bottoming out in the teens/lower 20s each night and
topping out in the lower 30s each daytime.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure will move east of the terminals this afternoon and
then move towards the Canadian Maritimes tonight.

Flight categories to start the period will be IFR to MVFR in
rain. The rain will quickly transition east of the terminals
20-22z, with conditions becoming VFR into the evening. It will
likely take longest for VFR to occur at KGON, around 00-02z. VFR
then prevails through Friday morning.

Winds will remain NE-SE across Long Island and southern
Connecticut terminals to start with winds shifting to the W or
NW at NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. Winds will then
be NW this evening into tonight before backing to the W late
tonight into Friday.

Wind speeds will vary due to the low pressure, but should
increase as it departs mid to late afternoon, becoming 10-20 kt
with gusts 20-30 kt early this evening. Winds and gusts weaken
overnight and likely will be 10 kt or less around sunrise
Friday. Winds increase through the day Friday, likely becoming
gusty in the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improving flight categories may be off by 1-2 hours.

Wind direction will be quickly changing 18-20z with the
direction settling to the NW thereafter. A few peak gusts around
30 kt possible late afternoon into the evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Afternoon-Night: VFR. W-WSW gusts 20-25 kt, mainly in
the afternoon and early evening.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR, mainly each afternoon NW wind gusts 15-20
kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Small craft conditions continue for the most part. Low pressure
will continue to shift north of the waters this afternoon with
NW-W winds picking up. Occasional gusts to 35kt still possible
on the ocean waters towards sundown through midnight. Small
craft conditions are otherwise in effect for all the area waters
tonight into Friday. The low will move far enough away on
Friday for winds to diminish a bit, however seas will remain at
or slightly above 5 ft on the ocean waters. Wind and seas
subside below SCA levels for Saturday, however some occasional
gusts to 25 kt will be possible at times.

Marginal SCA gusts in a westerly flow are possible on the ocean
waters Sunday and Sunday night while the non ocean waters remain
below advisory levels. Monday and Tuesday winds and seas will be
below advisory levels across all the forecast waters.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET