774
FXUS61 KOKX 291436
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
936 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
The region will be in between broad low pressure to the northeast
and high pressure building into the Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys through the weekend. The high pressure remains in
control Monday and Tuesday, then weakens Wednesday as low
pressure passes to the north through Thursday, bringing a cold
front across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
There will be varying levels of cloud cover today as the region
will lie ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave and
vortmax. We will also be situated between a broad area of low
pressure north and high pressure centered to the south and
west. A few sprinkles are possible in the stratocu. There may
be a brief decrease in clouds late morning before clouds start
increasing again this afternoon as the shortwave nears. There
will be a continued chance for sprinkles with a few flurries
possible well inland.
The shortwave will push east of the area tonight allowing for
clearing sky conditions. Highs today will be in the 40s with
lows tonight falling into the 20s and lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern does not change much in the short term with low pressure
remaining to our north and high pressure to the south and west.
A broad upper level trough will remain over the area.
Generally looking a dry conditions with mostly sunny skies during
the day. There may be some additional cloud cover from time to time
depending on the exact timing of any embedded shortwaves which move
over the area. Otherwise, conditions remain rather cool with highs
both Saturday and Sunday ranging from the mid to upper 30s to lower
40s. Overnight lows each night fall into the upper teens and
20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper longwave trough moves east Monday, and off the coast during
Tuesday. Then weak ridging, to near zonal flow dominates Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Another trough and shortwave moves into the
upper midwest Wednesday night and Thursday, with an upper low
closing off Thursday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains in
control, centered south of the region, Monday and Tuesday. A
seasonally cold airmass remains in place with a west to northwest
flow, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The NBM
continues to perform well with the temperatures.
Surface low pressure moves to the north of the region Wednesday and
Thursday sending a cold front through the area. Some moisture
accompanies this system, and there will be a chance of light
precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. With the cold airmass
in place light snow is expected across the region. With the passage
of the front, an even colder airmass may be moving into the region
for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weakening low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritimes and
southeastern Canada while high pressure slowly builds to the
southwest through Saturday morning.
VFR. A broken ceiling 5-6K ft redevelops this afternoon, then
clearing this evening. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out this
afternoon, with a rain/snow shower possible at KSWF.
West/southwest wind increases through the day, becoming gusty
up to 20 kt, and 20-22 kt at the NYC metro terminals. Gusts end
this evening with sustained winds generally around 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday and Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt during each
afternoon.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt mainly each afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft advisory remains for just the ocean waters through
tonight.
Winds continue to subside below SCA for all waters early this
morning with ocean seas remaining at marginal SCA levels thanks
to lingering southerly swell. Can not rule out some occasional
gusts to 25 kt through about mid morning on the ocean waters.
SCA gusts likely once again on the ocean tonight in wake of
cold frontal passage, with W/NW wind waves building back to SCA.
The pattern doesn`t change much for Saturday. Winds and seas look
marginal and will be close to the 25kt gust and 5ft threshold for
small craft. The advisories may need to be extended into Saturday.
SCA conditions look more likely Saturday Night through Sunday night
on the ocean waters and the Sound (channeling of WSW flow), with
marginal SCA gusts for all nearshore waters during the day
Sunday.
With a weak pressure gradient across the waters, as high pressure
remains in control, winds and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels on all the forecast waters Monday through Tuesday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET