936
FXUS61 KOKX 291806
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
106 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The region will be in between broad low pressure to the northeast
and high pressure building into the Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys through the weekend. The high pressure remains in
control Monday and Tuesday, then weakens Wednesday as low
pressure passes to the north through Thursday, bringing a cold
front across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid level shortwave continues approaching this afternoon.
Clouds are increasing again and already seeing some sprinkles
and/or flurries reported NW of the NYC metro. Temperatures are
well above freezing, but wet bulbs and dry subcloud layer
support a few flakes mixed in across the interior. Isolated
sprinkles are possible elsewhere, especially later in the
afternoon and early evening.
The shortwave will push east of the area tonight allowing for
clearing sky conditions. Highs today will be in the 40s with
lows tonight falling into the 20s and lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern does not change much in the short term with low pressure
remaining to our north and high pressure to the south and west.
A broad upper level trough will remain over the area.
Generally looking a dry conditions with mostly sunny skies during
the day. There may be some additional cloud cover from time to time
depending on the exact timing of any embedded shortwaves which move
over the area. Otherwise, conditions remain rather cool with highs
both Saturday and Sunday ranging from the mid to upper 30s to lower
40s. Overnight lows each night fall into the upper teens and
20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper longwave trough moves east Monday, and off the coast during
Tuesday. Then weak ridging, to near zonal flow dominates Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Another trough and shortwave moves into the
upper midwest Wednesday night and Thursday, with an upper low
closing off Thursday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains in
control, centered south of the region, Monday and Tuesday. A
seasonally cold airmass remains in place with a west to northwest
flow, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The NBM
continues to perform well with the temperatures.
Surface low pressure moves to the north of the region Wednesday and
Thursday sending a cold front through the area. Some moisture
accompanies this system, and there will be a chance of light
precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. With the cold airmass
in place light snow is expected across the region. With the passage
of the front, an even colder airmass may be moving into the region
for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The region remains between low pressure to the north and high
pressure to the south and west.
VFR. Sprinkles/light showers possible this afternoon, but
without vsby restrictions. Flurries possibly mixed in for
terminals north of the city.
WSW winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Gusts end this evening
with winds veering W-WNW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts tonight may continue for a couple of hours longer than
shown in TAFs.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday and Sunday: VFR. W winds gust around 20kt during both
afternoons.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt both afternoons.
Wednesday: VFR during the day. Chance of sub-VFR and snow at
night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft advisory remains for just the ocean waters through
tonight.
Winds continue to subside below SCA for all waters early this
morning with ocean seas remaining at marginal SCA levels thanks
to lingering southerly swell. Can not rule out some occasional
gusts to 25 kt through about mid morning on the ocean waters.
SCA gusts likely once again on the ocean tonight in wake of
cold frontal passage, with W/NW wind waves building back to SCA.
The pattern doesn`t change much for Saturday. Winds and seas look
marginal and will be close to the 25kt gust and 5ft threshold for
small craft. The advisories may need to be extended into Saturday.
SCA conditions look more likely Saturday Night through Sunday night
on the ocean waters and the Sound (channeling of WSW flow), with
marginal SCA gusts for all nearshore waters during the day
Sunday.
With a weak pressure gradient across the waters, as high pressure
remains in control, winds and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels on all the forecast waters Monday through Tuesday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET