851
FXUS61 KOKX 301125
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
625 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain between broad low pressure over
southeastern Canada and high pressure building into the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into early next week. High
pressure remains in control Tuesday, then weakens Wednesday as
low pressure passes to the north through Thursday, bringing a
cold front across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Weak
high pressure returns to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for current conditions.
At 600 AM EST the temperature at Central Park was 31 degrees,
which is the first freeze of fall 2024 and coldest temperature
since March 24th (also a low of 31 degrees and last time below
freezing).
A closed low remains over southeastern Canada, and extends into
the eastern United States. Meanwhile surface high pressure
remains centered over the southeastern states, and pushing into
the region. Dry weather is expected through the day. However,
there is a vort max over the upper midwest that rotates into
the region late in the day. A few of the CAMs are showing some
precipitation across the Twin Forks late afternoon into early
evening, but there is little moisture, with the low levels
remaining dry, and forcing is weak. If anything does occur will
be just a sprinkle. Temperatures remain 5 to around 8 degrees
below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very little change with the pattern is expected from tonight
through Monday night as the broad upper trough remains and high
pressure over the southeastern states is re enforced by another
Arctic airmass moving into the midsection of the nation Monday
and Monday night.
Meteorological winter 2024-2025, (Dec 1 through Feb 28), will
begin with lows tonight around 10 degrees below normal, raging
from the upper teens to lower 20s inland and mainly the mid 20s
elsewhere, and closer the upper 20s across New York City. Dry
weather continues into Monday night with both daytime and
nighttime temperatures remaining around 10 degrees below
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper trough over the region slides east during the day
Tuesday with the flow becoming a bit more zonal for Wednesday.
Another trough and shortwave then moves across the region for
Thursday.
At the surface, low pressure passes north of the region
Wednesday and Thursday sending a cold front through the area.
Some moisture accompanies this system, and there will be a
chance of light precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday.
With the cold airmass in place, light snow is expected across
much of the region, with a rain/snow mix a bit closer to the
coast and NYC. Precipitation should be light with this system
and little to no snow accumulations are expected at this time.
Behind the front, high pressure returns along with a an even
colder airmass for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR.
WSW winds around 10kt early this morning. By mid morning, winds
become more WNW with gusts 20-25kt. Any gusts should start to
taper off around 00Z. Winds remain westerly tonight around 10kt
in the city, slightly lower outside the city terminals. Gusts in
NYC possible once again on Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Start and end time of gusts today may be +/- 1 or 2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. W winds gust around 20kt during both afternoons.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt both afternoons.
Wednesday: VFR during the day. Chance of sub-VFR and snow or a
rain/snow mix at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to winds and seas with this update.
Marginal SCA conditions will continue on the ocean through at
Sunday, and have extended the Advisory. With a lighter, and more
of a northwest flow, conditions are likely to remain below
advisory levels across the forecast waters Sunday night through
Monday night. Sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters from
Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing SW flow ahead of an
approaching frontal system Wednesday night could lead to minimal
SCA conditions on the ocean waters, with gusts up to 25 kt and
seas up to 5 ft. More widespread SCA conditions will be likely
by Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET