484
FXUS61 KOKX 301815
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
115 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain between broad low pressure over
southeastern Canada and high pressure building into the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into early next week. High
pressure weakens Wednesday as low pressure passes to the north
through Thursday, bringing a cold front across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. Weak high pressure returns to end
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains on track.
A closed, upper low remains over southeastern Canada, and
extends into the eastern United States. Meanwhile surface high
pressure remains centered over the southeastern states, and
pushing into the region. Mainly dry weather is expected through
this evening. However, there is a vort max over the upper
midwest that rotates into the region late in the day. The CAMS
have been hinting at the development of precipitation across the
forks of Long Island late afternoon and evening. Steepening
lapse rates, some enhanced convergence, and weak lift from the
shortwave may just be enough to support flurries or sprinkles
across the area. This activity quickly pushes offshore shortly
after 6pm.
Highs will be in the upper 30s inland and lower 40s elsewhere, 5
to around 8 degrees below normal for the end of November.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very little change with the pattern is expected from tonight
through Monday night as the broad upper trough remains and high
pressure over the southeastern states is re enforced by another
Arctic airmass moving into the midsection of the nation Monday
and Monday night.
Meteorological winter 2024-2025, (Dec 1 through Feb 28), will
begin with lows tonight around 10 degrees below normal, raging
from the upper teens to lower 20s inland and mainly the mid 20s
elsewhere, and closer the upper 20s across New York City. Dry
weather continues into Monday night with both daytime and
nighttime temperatures remaining around 10 degrees below
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper trough over the region slides east during the day
Tuesday with the flow becoming a bit more zonal for Wednesday.
Another trough and shortwave then moves across the region for
Thursday.
At the surface, low pressure passes north of the region
Wednesday and Thursday sending a cold front through the area.
Some moisture accompanies this system, and there will be a
chance of light precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday.
With the cold airmass in place, light snow is expected across
much of the region, with a rain/snow mix a bit closer to the
coast and NYC. Precipitation should be light with this system
and little to no snow accumulations are expected at this time.
Behind the front, high pressure returns along with a an even
colder airmass for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A broad area of low pressure will remain across eastern Canada
into Sunday, while high pressure builds to the southwest. This
will keep the area under a gusty west flow.
VFR. Mid and high level ceilings are possible late tonight into
the first half of Sunday.
Winds will be WSW at 10-15kt G20-25kt this afternoon. Gusts
have been a bit slower to come up than expected, but still think
these winds are likely to develop over the next couple of
hours. Any gusts should start to taper off around 22Z-00Z. Winds
remain westerly tonight around 10kt along the coast with
occasional gusts 15-20kt, slightly lower winds elsewhere. Gusts
are likely to redevelop on Sunday, especially at the NYC and LI
terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional than frequent this afternoon, and
a bit weaker than currently forecast.
End time of gusts this evening may vary +/- 1 or 2 hours.
However, occasional gusts up to 20kt are possible overnight.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Afternoon: VFR. W winds G20KT.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR during the day. Chance of sub-VFR in snow and/or
rain showers at night. SW winds G15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a rain and/or snow
shower. W winds G25-30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions will continue on the ocean through
Sunday. Winds on the Harbor, LI Bays and LI Sound will likely be
around 20 kt.
With a lighter, and more of a northwest flow, conditions are
likely to remain below advisory levels across the waters Sunday
night through Monday night. Sub SCA conditions are expected on
all waters from Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing SW flow ahead
of an approaching frontal system Wednesday night could lead to
minimal SCA conditions on the ocean waters, with gusts up to 25
kt and seas up to 5 ft. More widespread SCA conditions will be
likely by Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET