319
FXUS61 KOKX 011454
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
954 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain between broad low pressure over
southeastern Canada and high pressure building into the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. High
pressure then builds in from the west Monday into Tuesday and
remains Tuesday night. High pressure weakens Wednesday as low
pressure passes to the north on Thursday, bringing a cold front
across the region. Weak high pressure returns to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An area of mid and high level clouds continues work east across
the NYC/NJ metro, across LI, and SE CT. Otherwise, updated for
current conditions.

A broad upper trough remains across southeastern Canada while
Arctic high pressure continues to build into the Tennessee
Valley through today. A weak surface trough moves across the
area late this morning into this afternoon, however with most
of the lift to the north and little moisture no precipitation is
expected. With a cold airmass in place temperatures remain up
to 10 degrees below seasonal normals for the beginning of
meteorological winter today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The broad upper trough remains over southeastern Canada and into
the eastern United States as shortwaves rotate through the flow
tonight into Tuesday. The trough then begins to shift east
Tuesday night. Meanwhile Arctic high pressure builds in to the
west tonight through Tuesday and remains Tuesday night. Dry
weather continues with temperatures remaining up to 10 degrees
below normal as a northwest flow persists.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term starts off with the region under a more zonal
flow aloft on Wednesday. Another trough and shortwave then drops
out Canada moving into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night,
eventually moving into the Northeast for Thursday.

At the surface, high pressure south of the region weakens a
bit, allowing a clipper type low to pass north of the region on
Thursday. This low will also send a cold front across the area
during the daytime Thursday. Some moisture accompanies this
system, and there will be a chance of light precipitation
Wednesday night into Thursday. Will keep POPs at chance for now.
Temperatures across the interior may be cold enough for snow
showers, however with a southerly flow at the surface and aloft
ahead of the cold front, temperatures should be warm enough for
just some rain showers. A mix of rain/snow showers can not be
ruled out closer to the coast.

Behind the front, high pressure returns along with a an even
colder airmass for the end of next week. Another low pressure
system may impact the area late in the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period.

W-WNW winds will increase late this morning into early afternoon
with gusts 20-25 kt. Gusts should end 21-23z with wind speeds
settling to 10 kt or less this evening. W-WNW flow 10 kt or
less then prevails into early Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end times of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday and Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR in snow and/or
rain showers at night. SW winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a rain and/or snow shower. W
winds G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gusty west winds and seas 3 to 5 ft remain on the ocean waters
into early this evening, and a SCA remains in effect. With high
pressure building to the west and south tonight into Monday the
gradient weakens and winds become northwest. The high then
remains in control into Tuesday night. Winds and seas will
remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters tonight
through Tuesday night.

Sub-SCA conditions expected through much of Wednesday. Winds
and waves pick up Wednesday night ahead of a cold frontal
passage and potentially reach gale force by Thursday morning.
The cold front likely passes through Thursday afternoon and gale
force winds could continue through parts of Friday out of the
northwest. Ocean seas during this time could peak around 10
feet. Conditions fall to SCA level Friday night and then below
SCA by Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET