009
FXUS61 KOKX 011751
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1251 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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The region will remain between broad low pressure over
southeastern Canada and high pressure building into the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into tonight. High pressure
then builds in from the west Monday into Tuesday and remains
Tuesday night. High pressure weakens Wednesday as low pressure
passes to the north on Thursday, bringing a cold front across
the region. Weak high pressure returns to end the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid and high levels clouds still impacting portions of the NYC
metro and locations to the east. This has kept temperatures in
these locations a bit cooler. Highs along the coast may not get
out of the 30s this afternoon.
Otherwise, a broad upper trough remains across southeastern
Canada while Arctic high pressure continues to build into the
Tennessee Valley through today. With a cold airmass in place
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal for the beginning of
meteorological winter today.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The broad upper trough remains over southeastern Canada and into
the eastern United States as shortwaves rotate through the flow
tonight into Tuesday. The trough then begins to shift east
Tuesday night. Meanwhile Arctic high pressure builds in to the
west tonight through Tuesday and remains Tuesday night. Dry
weather continues with temperatures remaining up to 10 degrees
below normal as a northwest flow persists.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term starts off with the region under a more zonal
flow aloft on Wednesday. Another trough and shortwave then drops
out Canada moving into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night,
eventually moving into the Northeast for Thursday.
At the surface, high pressure south of the region weakens a
bit, allowing a clipper type low to pass north of the region on
Thursday. This low will also send a cold front across the area
during the daytime Thursday. Some moisture accompanies this
system, and there will be a chance of light precipitation
Wednesday night into Thursday. Will keep POPs at chance for now.
Temperatures across the interior may be cold enough for snow
showers, however with a southerly flow at the surface and aloft
ahead of the cold front, temperatures should be warm enough for
just some rain showers. A mix of rain/snow showers can not be
ruled out closer to the coast.
Behind the front, high pressure returns along with a an even
colder airmass for the end of next week. Another low pressure
system may impact the area late in the weekend into early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period.
W winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Gusts
should end 21-23z with wind speeds settling under 10 kt this
evening into the overnight. The flow veers to the NW by Monday
morning and increases to around 10 kt late morning into the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
An occasional gust 15-18 kt possible Monday afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday PM-Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt possible Monday and
Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR in snow and/or
rain showers at night. SW winds G15-20 kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a rain and/or snow shower. W
winds 10-20G25-35 kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds 15-20G25-35 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty west winds and seas 3 to 5 ft remain on the ocean waters
into early this evening, and a SCA remains in effect. With high
pressure building to the west and south tonight into Monday the
gradient weakens and winds become northwest. The high then
remains in control into Tuesday night. Winds and seas will
remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters tonight
through Tuesday night.
Sub-SCA conditions expected through much of Wednesday. Winds
and waves pick up Wednesday night ahead of a cold frontal
passage and potentially reach gale force by Thursday morning.
The cold front likely passes through Thursday afternoon and gale
force winds could continue through parts of Friday out of the
northwest. Ocean seas during this time could peak around 10
feet. Conditions fall to SCA level Friday night and then below
SCA by Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET