461
FXUS61 KOKX 021434
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
934 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong Canadian high pressure will gradually build from the west
through the first half of this week. High pressure weakens as it
slides off the Southeast coast on Wednesday. A low pressure
system will push a series of cold fronts through the region as
the low passes to the north into Thursday. High pressure builds
back in from the west Friday and into the weekend. A weak area
of low pressure could skirt by the region late this weekend or
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Temperatures will recover this morning into the 30s quickly for
the later morning with a good deal of sunshine.
Essentially a deep layered W to NW flow regime will be in place to
begin this week. A strong cP air mass builds down across the
Northern high Plains today. This high will continue to push
southeast with time across the nation`s mid section. At the same
time weak low pressure troughs will reside north of our area. A W to
NW flow regime will pulse across the region as these weak troughs
pivot north of the area. The region will be increasingly under the
influence of the high well off to the west over time. With a dry air
mass in place look for brisk and seasonably cold conditions for
today. Day time max temperatures will struggle to reach the lower
40s along the coast, with mainly upper 30s inland. Wind chill
readings will be hovering mainly in the lower and middle 30s this
afternoon.
For tonight the winds lighten a bit as temperatures will fall
primarily into the 20s region wide, with a few isolated upper teens
in the normally colder rural spots. The exception will be the metro
where temperatures settle back to around 30. Temperatures today and
tonight will average about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Brisk conditions with winds out of the NW resume again during the
day Tuesday. Temperatures will be similar to Monday with mainly
upper 30s to lower 40s under mainly sunny skies. Expect also similar
conditions for Tuesday night compared to the previous night with
lows mainly in the 20s region wide. Dew points will remain primarily
in the upper teens to around 20 as dry and brisk conditions will
continue to prevail under mainly clear skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points
*Temperatures run below normal through the week, with highs likely
not climbing out of the 30s on Friday and Saturday for most.
*A clipper low will bring rain and snow showers, along with gusty
winds to the area Wednesday night through Friday.
No major changes with long term thinking in this update. A potent
shortwave energy diving down from near the North Pole will aid in
deepening a clipper low as it passes over the Great Lakes and to our
north. This low will drag a series of cold fronts through the area
Thursday, along with some rain and snow showers. The system lacks
significant moisture and global guidance continues to keep QPF under
half an inch , with highest amounts across eastern areas. West of
the Hudson, precip appears limited, with QPF at or under a tenth of
an inch. Temperature profiles appear cold enough across the interior
to allow snow for most if not the entirety of the event, which may
lead to a light snow accumulation in some locales. At the coast, a
mix of rain and snow, or simply plain rain, is most likely with
surface temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40. Timing of the
intermittent showers still looks Wednesday evening and night,
gradually tapering Thursday morning.
The more impactful weather from this system may end up being the
winds and cold air that will be filtering in behind it. With the
region between a 1035 mb high to the west and a 980 mb low to the
northeast, winds will become quite blustery on Thursday, persisting
into Friday. Current forecast has sustained winds peaking at 20 to
25 mph, with gusts peaking at 35 to near 40 mph. These peak values
will likely be Thursday into Thursday night.
The first push of cold air comes behind the cold front, but there
looks to be a secondary push on Friday. 850mb temps look to bottom
out Friday evening around -12 to -15C. These values are below the
10% moving average for the OKX sounding per SPC`s Sounding
Climatology Page. This should yield highs Friday and Saturday only
in the 30s, with overnight lows in the teens and 20s. A gradual warm
up begins late this weekend, returning conditions to near normal.
High pressure returns from the west by the start of the weekend, and
looks to maintain cold, but mostly dry, conditions. Global guidance
continues to offer differing solutions with the potential of another
diving low out of Canada, and its interaction southern stream
energy. For now, these two features look to remain separate, and the
local region may simply remain dry with high pressure remaining in
place into early next week. Will need to continue monitor trends for
a better handle at this point, but a major system appears unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period.
W-NW winds around 10 kt. Speeds lower under 10 kt this evening,
with NW flow persisting into Tuesday morning. Speeds similar on
Tuesday, with more frequent gusts up to 20 kt by afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
An occasional gust 15 to 20 kt possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt possible Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR in snow and/or rain
showers at night. SW winds G15-20 kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a rain and/or snow shower. W winds
10-20G30-35 kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds 15-20G25-35 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A W to NW flow regime prevails through the first half of the week.
No advisories will be in place through at least Tuesday night. A few
gusts up to around 20 kt are possible later in the day Tuesday, but
conditions are expected to remain below small craft.
Winds and waves increase late Wednesday ahead of a cold frontal
passage and potentially reach gale force by late Wednesday evening.
Near gale force winds continue Thursday and into early Friday out of
the northwest before lowering Friday morning. Ocean seas during this
time peak around 10 to 12 feet. Waves lower below small craft
criteria on all waters through the day on Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated the next 7 days.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...JE/JP
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...IRD/DR
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR