477
FXUS61 KOKX 041004
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
504 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure southwest of the area shifts off the SE coast today
with low pressure over the Northern Great Lakes pushing north of the
area tonight into Thursday. The low will drag a strong cold front
through early on Thursday, followed by a reinforcing cold front late
Thursday night. High pressure builds in from the west Friday and
into the weekend, sliding offshore Sunday. A frontal system impacts
the region Monday and Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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During this morning high pressure to the southwest of the area gets
further to the east and off the coast this afternoon. Towards late
morning a return flow begins to set up, especially further east
across the area. This will result in a SW flow picking up for the
afternoon hours, especially further east for coastal sections.
Temperatures for the afternoon likely reach close to 50 across far
eastern portions of the area, with some colder upper 30s and lower
40s further to the northwest. Clouds will increase quickly during
the late morning and afternoon in advance of the next storm system
which approaches from the west. The system actually will eventually
move north of the area tonight into Thursday morning as the system
tracks across the Northern Great Lakes and moves into Southern
Canada towards early Thursday morning. A potent mid level shortwave
will swing through as an occluded boundary will emanate from the low
and moves across tonight. This will provide much of the lift in
tandem with a spoke of mid level energy with a potent vort max
swinging through. Precipitation breaks out from west to east early
this evening / tonight with mainly snow across northern and
northwestern sections, with a wintry mix at the onset getting closer
to NYC and NE NJ, with mostly rain across south central /
southeastern CT, and LI. It appears likely now that the city will
likely only have a little bit of wet snow or a mix of rain and snow
before changing to plain rain. About a tenth of an inch further
west, to around a half inch of liquid is expected across eastern
most sections by mid to late Thursday morning. By early Thursday
morning a coating to just over an inch of snow is a possibility for
northern and northwestern portions of the area. Up to 2 inches
is possible in some of the hills of No. Fairfield and Putnam
counties and could result in slippery travel early Thursday
morning. Mainly wet conditions will take place further south
and east.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A few snow showers should accompany a strong cold front during
Thursday morning. The winds will gust quickly immediately behind a
cold frontal passage Thursday morning. BUFKIT sounding and momentum
algorithm giving wind gusts easily 45 to 50 mph, with a few higher
gusts closer to 55 mph possible. Thus continuing with wind advisory
for the entire area with strong W winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph
with some locations likely having sustained winds close to 30 mph
for a few hours towards mid day / early afternoon. The day should be
predominantly dry following the cold frontal passage early on. A few
flurries or a quick snow shower cannot be ruled out, especially
north and west during the afternoon and into the early evening. The
max temps should be achieved primarily in the late morning, as
temperatures are likely to hold steady during the afternoon.
For Thursday night the winds will remain elevated for a bit through
a good portion of the evening, thus the wind advisory remains in
effect until 03z. The winds should only come down gradually through
the overnight period, with blustery and cold conditions into Friday
morning under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. It will be the
coldest night and early morning of the season with respect to the
impacts of the wind. Wind chills are likely to get down into the
teens across the majority of the area by early Friday morning, and
possibly a few upper single digits wind chills across NW portions of
Orange County.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Key Points:
* Cold and blustery late week, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
normal and afternoon wind chills in the 20s on Friday
* Increasing confidence in frontal system bringing next rainfall to
the region early next week
As low pressure bombs out into Newfoundland on Friday, high pressure
begins to build in locally from the west. The tightened pressure
gradient will keep conditions blustery through the afternoon, with
NW gusts 30 to 35 mph. Given the core of the cold air mass in place,
850 mb temps progged -12 to -15C, this will setup one of the coldest
days so far this early winter season. Daytime highs in the mid to
upper 30s along the coast, and near or below freezing across the
interior. Combined with the brisk NW wind, wind chills likely sit in
the 20s through the day. Absent a stray flurry along the coast,
conditions remain dry. Gusts subside by early evening, and winds
lighten further Friday night as temperatures fall into the teens and
20s overnight.
High pressure builds over the East into the weekend, shifting off
the Carolina coast Sunday. This should maintain the dry weather and
allow a WSW or SW flow to develop and begin a gradual warm up.
Thereafter, global guidance is coming into better agreement for
early next week, with a frontal system approaching on Monday, and
the attendant cold front likely moving through into midweek. Milder
air advects in with the established SW flow, and thermal profiles
signal predominantly plain rain from this event, with showers likely
at times Monday and Tuesday. Capped POPs at 50% late in the period
to account for the remaining uncertainty in timing at this stage.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control through this afternoon. A cold
front approaches late tonight and passes through Thursday morning.
VFR through the day ahead, at least until 00z Thursday, then
increasing chance of MVFR with rain, snow, or a mixture possible
tonight. Better overall chances of precipitation will be north and
east of city terminals.
Winds WNW at or under 10 kt through late morning, before increasing
in speed and backing SW in the afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 kt. SW
winds increase further this evening with gusts toward 30 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
PROB30s for tonight may be converted to prevailing conditions.
Precip type tonight might be all rain for KJFK/KLGA/KEWR, and
possibly even KTEB as well.
Isolated gusts to 35 kt after 00Z Thu.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight: Varying conditions across the terminals:
* KSWF: Snow likely with MVFR/IFR cond expected and accumulation
close to an inch.
* KHPN/KTEB: Mixed rain and snow with MVFR.
* KBDR/KEWR/KLGA/KJFK: MVFR with mostly rain, possibly mixed with
snow.
* KISP/KGON: Rain with MVFR with a chance of IFR.
* SW winds G25-30kt at the NYC metros and along the coast.
Thursday: MVFR cond possible with lingering rain/snow showers,
improving to VFR by afternoon except at KGON. W winds G25-30kt
early, increasing to G40kt by late morning.
Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds G35-40kt early, gradually diminishing
to G20-25kt late at night.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G25kt.
Saturday: VFR. W winds G20kt.
Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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The winds will start to come out of the SW by mid morning, with the
winds increasing during the afternoon. Small craft conditions should
develop from SW to NE later in the day and into the early evening
across the waters, with gales developing tonight. A potent cold
front approaches tonight with the winds going more out of the W
towards daybreak. The cold front passes through Thursday morning
with gale force wind gusts across all waters, with an occasional
storm force gust not out of the question across the eastern ocean
waters during the day. The winds will remain elevated Thursday
night, with gales conditions beginning to give way to small craft
conditions from west to east approaching Friday morning.
NW winds gradually lower thru Friday afternoon, with gusts likely
falling under 25 kt (Small Craft Advisory criteria) on most waters
by early Friday evening. Ocean seas lower under 5 ft Friday night,
and all waters are then expected to remain below SCA criteria thru
the weekend and into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for
ANZ331-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ332-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this
evening for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR