567
FXUS61 KOKX 041131
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
631 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure southwest of the area shifts off the SE coast today
with low pressure over the Northern Great Lakes pushing north of the
area tonight into Thursday. The low will drag a strong cold front
through early on Thursday, followed by a reinforcing cold front late
Thursday night. High pressure builds in from the west Friday and
into the weekend, sliding offshore Sunday. A frontal system impacts
the region Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes with this update as the forecast remains on track.
Clear skies to begin the day, with some higher levels clouds
trying to streak into western portions of the area early this
morning. During later this morning high pressure to the
southwest of the area gets further to the east and off the coast
this afternoon. Towards late morning a return flow begins to
set up, especially further east across the area. This will
result in a SW flow picking up for the afternoon hours,
especially further east for coastal sections. Temperatures for
the afternoon likely reach close to 50 across far eastern
portions of the area, with some colder upper 30s and lower 40s
further to the northwest. Clouds will increase quickly during
the late morning and afternoon in advance of the next storm
system which approaches from the west. The system actually will
eventually move north of the area tonight into Thursday morning
as the system tracks across the Northern Great Lakes and moves
into Southern Canada towards early Thursday morning. A potent
mid level shortwave will swing through as an occluded boundary
will emanate from the low and moves across tonight. This will
provide much of the lift in tandem with a spoke of mid level
energy with a potent vort max swinging through. Precipitation
breaks out from west to east early this evening / tonight with
mainly snow across northern and northwestern sections, with a
wintry mix at the onset getting closer to NYC and NE NJ, with
mostly rain across south central / southeastern CT, and LI. It
appears likely now that the city will likely only have a little
bit of wet snow or a mix of rain and snow before changing to
plain rain. About a tenth of an inch further west, to around a
half inch of liquid is expected across eastern most sections by
mid to late Thursday morning. By early Thursday morning a
coating to just over an inch of snow is a possibility for
northern and northwestern portions of the area. Up to 2 inches
is possible in some of the hills of No. Fairfield and Putnam
counties and could result in slippery travel early Thursday
morning. Mainly wet conditions will take place further south and
east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A few snow showers should accompany a strong cold front during
Thursday morning. The winds will gust quickly immediately behind a
cold frontal passage Thursday morning. BUFKIT sounding and momentum
algorithm giving wind gusts easily 45 to 50 mph, with a few higher
gusts closer to 55 mph possible. Thus continuing with wind advisory
for the entire area with strong W winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph
with some locations likely having sustained winds close to 30 mph
for a few hours towards mid day / early afternoon. The day should be
predominantly dry following the cold frontal passage early on. A few
flurries or a quick snow shower cannot be ruled out, especially
north and west during the afternoon and into the early evening. The
max temps should be achieved primarily in the late morning, as
temperatures are likely to hold steady during the afternoon.
For Thursday night the winds will remain elevated for a bit through
a good portion of the evening, thus the wind advisory remains in
effect until 03z. The winds should only come down gradually through
the overnight period, with blustery and cold conditions into Friday
morning under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. It will be the
coldest night and early morning of the season with respect to the
impacts of the wind. Wind chills are likely to get down into the
teens across the majority of the area by early Friday morning, and
possibly a few upper single digits wind chills across NW portions of
Orange County.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Cold and blustery late week, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
normal and afternoon wind chills in the 20s on Friday
* Increasing confidence in frontal system bringing next rainfall to
the region early next week
As low pressure bombs out into Newfoundland on Friday, high pressure
begins to build in locally from the west. The tightened pressure
gradient will keep conditions blustery through the afternoon, with
NW gusts 30 to 35 mph. Given the core of the cold air mass in place,
850 mb temps progged -12 to -15C, this will setup one of the coldest
days so far this early winter season. Daytime highs in the mid to
upper 30s along the coast, and near or below freezing across the
interior. Combined with the brisk NW wind, wind chills likely sit in
the 20s through the day. Absent a stray flurry along the coast,
conditions remain dry. Gusts subside by early evening, and winds
lighten further Friday night as temperatures fall into the teens and
20s overnight.
High pressure builds over the East into the weekend, shifting off
the Carolina coast Sunday. This should maintain the dry weather and
allow a WSW or SW flow to develop and begin a gradual warm up.
Thereafter, global guidance is coming into better agreement for
early next week, with a frontal system approaching on Monday, and
the attendant cold front likely moving through into midweek. Milder
air advects in with the established SW flow, and thermal profiles
signal predominantly plain rain from this event, with showers likely
at times Monday and Tuesday. Capped POPs at 50% late in the period
to account for the remaining uncertainty in timing at this stage.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through this afternoon. A cold
front approaches late tonight and passes through Thursday morning.
VFR through the day ahead, at least until 03z Thursday, then
increasing chance of MVFR with rain, snow, or a mixture possible
tonight. Better overall chances of precipitation will be north and
east of city terminals. Steadiest precip ends by 15Z Thu and
conditions return to VFR.
Winds WNW at or under 10 kt through late morning, before increasing
in speed and backing SW in the afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 kt. SW
winds increase further this evening with gusts toward 30 kt, then
closer to 40 kt by mid morning Thursday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of precip could be off by a couple of hours.
Wet snow could mix in with any rain showers overnight into
Thursday morning, particularly at KTEB and KEWR.
Brief IFR cigs possible early Thursday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Early Thursday AM: Varying conditions across the terminals:
* KSWF: Snow likely with MVFR/IFR cond expected and accumulation
close to an inch.
* KHPN/KTEB: Mixed rain and snow with MVFR.
* KBDR/KEWR/KLGA/KJFK: MVFR with mostly rain, possibly mixed with
snow.
* KISP/KGON: Rain with MVFR with a chance of IFR.
* SW winds G25-30kt at the NYC metros and along the coast.
Thursday: MVFR cond possible with lingering rain/snow showers,
improving to VFR by afternoon. W winds G25-30kt early, increasing
to G40kt by late morning.
Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds G35-40kt early, gradually diminishing
to G20-25kt late at night.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G25kt.
Saturday: VFR. W winds G20kt.
Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The winds will start to come out of the SW by mid morning, with the
winds increasing during the afternoon. Small craft conditions should
develop from SW to NE later in the day and into the early evening
across the waters, with gales developing tonight. A potent cold
front approaches tonight with the winds going more out of the W
towards daybreak. The cold front passes through Thursday morning
with gale force wind gusts across all waters, with an occasional
storm force gust not out of the question across the eastern ocean
waters during the day. The winds will remain elevated Thursday
night, with gales conditions beginning to give way to small craft
conditions from west to east approaching Friday morning.
NW winds gradually lower thru Friday afternoon, with gusts likely
falling under 25 kt (Small Craft Advisory criteria) on most waters
by early Friday evening. Ocean seas lower under 5 ft Friday night,
and all waters are then expected to remain below SCA criteria thru
the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for
ANZ331-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ332-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this
evening for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR