001
FXUS61 KOKX 041825
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the SE coast today with low pressure over
the Northern Great Lakes pushing north of the area tonight into
Thursday. The low will drag a strong cold front through early on
Thursday. High pressure builds in from the west Friday and into
the weekend, sliding offshore Sunday. A frontal system impacts
the region Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track.
Clouds will continue to increase from west to east through the
rest of the afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system. A
return flow begins to set up, especially further east across
the area. This will result in a SW flow picking up, especially
near the coast. Temperatures likely struggle to reach 40 north
and west of NYC with lower to middle 40s NYC/Hudson River
Corridor on east with upper 40s out east.
Low pressure moving north of the area tonight will push a warm
front towards the area followed by a strong cold front towards
early Thursday morning. A potent mid level shortwave and
associated vort energy will swing through aloft late tonight
and early Thursday morning. Precip may initially break out east
of the Hudson River a few hours before midnight with
strengthening warm advection. It may take a few hours longer for
precip to develop along and west of the Hudson River corridor
when the shortwave energy and strong cold front helping expand
the precip.
Mainly snow is expected for the interior of the Lower Hudson
Valley and interior SW CT. Some wet snow is possible down
towards the NYC metro and coastal SW CT, but temperatures should
remain too warm for any accumulation. Across Long Island and
south central and south east CT, rain is expected. Liquid
equivalents range from around one tenth west to around one half
inch east. By early Thursday morning, a coating to just over an
inch of snow is a possibility for northern and northwestern
portions of the area. Up to 2 inches is possible in some of the
hills of No. Fairfield and Putnam counties and could result in
slippery travel early Thursday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A few snow showers should accompany a strong cold front during
Thursday morning. The winds will gust quickly immediately behind a
cold frontal passage Thursday morning. BUFKIT sounding and momentum
algorithm giving wind gusts easily 45 to 50 mph, with a few higher
gusts closer to 55 mph possible. The wind advisory continues
for the entire area with strong W winds sustained at 20 to 25
mph with some locations likely having sustained winds close to
30 mph for a few hours towards mid day / early afternoon. The
day should be predominantly dry following the cold frontal
passage early on. A few flurries or a quick snow shower cannot
be ruled out, especially north and west during the afternoon and
into the early evening. The max temps should be achieved
primarily in the late morning, as temperatures are likely to
hold steady during the afternoon.
For Thursday night the winds will remain elevated for a bit through
a good portion of the evening, thus the wind advisory remains in
effect until 03z. The winds should only come down gradually through
the overnight period, with blustery and cold conditions into Friday
morning under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. It will be the
coldest night and early morning of the season with respect to the
impacts of the wind. Wind chills are likely to get down into the
teens across the majority of the area by early Friday morning, and
possibly a few upper single digits wind chills across NW portions of
Orange County.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Cold and blustery late week, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
normal and afternoon wind chills in the 20s on Friday
* Increasing confidence in frontal system bringing next rainfall to
the region early next week
As low pressure bombs out into Newfoundland on Friday, high pressure
begins to build in locally from the west. The tightened pressure
gradient will keep conditions blustery through the afternoon, with
NW gusts 30 to 35 mph. Given the core of the cold air mass in place,
850 mb temps progged -12 to -15C, this will setup one of the coldest
days so far this early winter season. Daytime highs in the mid to
upper 30s along the coast, and near or below freezing across the
interior. Combined with the brisk NW wind, wind chills likely sit in
the 20s through the day. Absent a stray flurry along the coast,
conditions remain dry. Gusts subside by early evening, and winds
lighten further Friday night as temperatures fall into the teens and
20s overnight.
High pressure builds over the East into the weekend, shifting off
the Carolina coast Sunday. This should maintain the dry weather and
allow a WSW or SW flow to develop and begin a gradual warm up.
Thereafter, global guidance is coming into better agreement for
early next week, with a frontal system approaching on Monday, and
the attendant cold front likely moving through into midweek. Milder
air advects in with the established SW flow, and thermal profiles
signal predominantly plain rain from this event, with showers likely
at times Monday and Tuesday. Capped POPs at 50% late in the period
to account for the remaining uncertainty in timing at this stage.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control this afternoon. A warm front
approaches and possibly passes through the region this evening,
with a cold front approaching late tonight. The cold front
passes through Thursday morning.
VFR until around 03Z this evening, then increasing chance of
MVFR with rain at the coast, possible a rain/snow mix at the
start with IFR. Snow at KSWF with MVFR to IFR, with total
snowfall of 1/2 to 1 inch. Precipitation ends Thursday morning
with passage of a cold front, and conditions improve to VFR.
Winds SW to S 10-15kt, occasional gusts possible this afternoon,
especially along the coast. SW winds increase further this
evening with gusts 25-30kt. Thursday morning, 13Z to 16Z, winds
become west around 25kt with gusts 35-40kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Start time of precipitation may be an hour or two earlier, low
to moderate confidence.
Brief IFR ceilings possible this evening with a rain/snow mix,
low confidence on occurrence.
Peak westerly gusts Thursday afternoon may be as high as 43kt,
moderate confidence.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon: VFR, slight chance of flurries with brief
MVFR possible. W winds 20-25kt, gusts 35-40kt, occasional gusts
to 43kt possible.
Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds G35-40kt early, gradually
diminishing to G20-25kt late at night.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.
Saturday - Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR with a chance of rain showers, IFR in the afternoon
with rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Increasing SW winds expected this afternoon with SCA conditions
developing. Gales are then likely to develop tonight. A potent
cold front approaches tonight with the winds going more out of
the W towards daybreak. The cold front passes through Thursday
morning with gale force wind gusts across all waters, with an
occasional storm force gust not out of the question across the
eastern ocean waters during the day.
Low water levels are possible near shore during the daytime low
tide on Thursday. Water levels may fall to around -2 feet MLLW.
The winds will remain elevated Thursday night, with gales
conditions beginning to give way to small craft conditions from
west to east approaching Friday morning.
NW winds gradually lower thru Friday afternoon, with gusts likely
falling under 25 kt (Small Craft Advisory criteria) on most waters
by early Friday evening. Ocean seas lower under 5 ft Friday night,
and all waters are then expected to remain below SCA criteria thru
the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for
ANZ331-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ332-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR