718
FXUS61 KOKX 050907
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
407 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure moves north today and drags another cold front through
Friday morning. The region will remain in-between departing low
pressure to the north and high pressure to the southwest into
Saturday. The high will then slowly move off the Southeast coast
this weekend as a warm front passes well to the north. Another
warm front is expected to approach and pass through on Monday. A
slow moving cold front will then approach from the west from
Tuesday into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few slick spots this morning with a light snowfall which stuck
mainly to colder surfaces, although some secondary and less
traveled roads managed a light coating in a lot of places,
especially outside of the NYC and NE NJ metro. Continuing with
the SPS until just after sunrise for some slick conditions as
temperatures are hovering near or just above freezing, even near
the coast.
Low pressure moves north of the NY State border this morning,
with the associated warm front getting into Northern New England
as the low eventually occludes into ME towards this afternoon.
The cold front gets dragged through this morning with a brief
line or broken line of precip in the form of mainly snow on the
narrow precip shield as colder air and lower dewpoints wrap in
quickly behind the frontal passage from west to east. Higher res
guidance has far northern areas interacting with more upper
level support with some additional very light snow accumulations
across a stripe along northern most portions of the CWA. The
winds will gust higher immediately behind the cold frontal this
morning. BUFKIT sounding and momentum transport algorithm
remains suggestive of wind gusts easily 45 to 50 mph, with a few
higher gusts closer to 55 mph possible into the afternoon. Thus
the wind advisory remains in place for the entire area with
strong W winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph with some locations
likely having sustained winds close to 30 mph for a few hours
towards mid day and the early afternoon. The day should be
predominantly dry following the cold frontal passage early on. A
few flurries or a quick snow shower cannot be ruled out,
especially north and west during the afternoon and into the
early evening. Also whatever can survive in terms of lake effect
induced streamers may briefly get into portions of Orange
County and perhaps Putnam and No. Fairfield for a bit later
today into this evening. The max temps should be achieved
primarily in the late morning, as temperatures are likely to
hold steady during the afternoon, and fall as the sun gets lower
late in the afternoon with strong cold air advection along with
steep lower level lapse rates.
For tonight the winds will remain rather strong for the first 2 to 3
hours of the evening, and then should gradually back down from their
peak into the overnight. Cannot completely rule out a few
flurries or snow showers during the evening, but it should be
primarily dry. The winds will remain elevated for a bit through
a good portion of the night, just no longer at wind advisory
criteria. The wind advisory remains in effect until 03z. The
winds should only come down gradually through the overnight
period with sustained winds closer to 15 to 20 mph and gusts
closer to 30 to 35 mph. Thus, blustery and cold conditions will
continue into Friday morning under partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies for most of the area with some stratcu at times further
northwest. It will be the coldest night and early morning of
the season with respect to the impacts of the wind. Wind chills
are likely to get down into the teens across a good portion of
the area by early Friday morning, and possibly a few upper
single digit wind chills across far W and NW portions of Orange
County.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A secondary front / sfc trough pushes through Friday morning
reinforcing the cold air. This will lead to the coldest day of the
season thus far, especially when considering the wind. Day time max
temps will not do better than lower and middle 30s across most of
the area on a WNW wind at around 15 to 20 mph sustained, and gusts
of 30 to 35 mph. The wind will make it feel about 10 to 12 degrees
colder with wind chills during the afternoon only in the 20s region
wide. Mostly sunny skies are anticipated closer to the coast with a
few intervals of scattered stratcu, with more stratcu further to the
NW.
The winds will subside Friday night as the pressure gradient relaxes
some as the strong low pressure center exits Nova Scotia and
Southeastern Canada. The region will be in-between an elongated
trough of low pressure in Canada and high pressure over the
Tennessee Valley. Thus the winds should remain up enough to preclude
strong or widespread radiational cooling, therefore not expecting a
large spread in night time temperatures. Most places will get down
into the lower 20s for lows, with a few upper teens well north, and
middle and upper 20s across the metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The large upper trough that has been responsible for recent cold
wx will finally slide east this weekend, replaced by broad
ridging quickly propagating over from the Western states Sunday
and Monday. As this ridging slides east, deep layer SW flow
ahead of an amplifying trough over the nation`s mid section will
then take hold going into mid next week. Temps on Sat 5-8
degrees below avg on Sat will quickly moderate to slightly above
avg on Sunday as a warm front passes to the north and sfc high
pressure moves to the SE coast. As another warm front moves
directly toward the area and on Mon and lifts through by
evening, temps should modify further above normal on Mon, with
highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s, and a little warmer than that
for Mon-Tue with highs reaching the lower/mid 50s.
With the approach of the warm front on Mon, expect rain to become
likely through the day. If precip arrives early enough Mon morning
there is a slight chance of precip beginning briefly as -FZRA in the
valleys of Orange County.
With the area in the warm sector ahead of a slow moving cold front
aligned with the flow aloft going into mid week, capped any likely
or greater NBM PoP to 50 percent through the rest of the fcst
period. Timing of the front is uncertain, with the faster ECMWF
bringing it through before daybreak Wed, and the slower GFS
lagging until Wed afternoon out east.
Chance PoP continues into Wed and Wed night as fcst uncertainty
increases further regarding timing and track of a low coming out of
the Gulf States. Faster GFS starts bringing significant precip as
early as Wed night-Thu, while the ECMWF holds off until beyond
the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An approaching cold front passes through this morning, before high
pressure begins to build in behind it.
MVFR or IFR into the morning with rain, snow, and a mixture falling
for most. As of 9Z, starting to see the steadiest taper at city
terminals, KHPN, and KSWF, but light showers may move through at
times over the next couple of hours. Another chance of brief steady
rain or snow showers just ahead of the cold front between 11Z and
13Z, then drying out and condition improve to VFR for most by late
morning.
A bit of a lull in the winds at 9Z will increase once again
toward 12Z with the frontal passage, and could see sudden gusts
toward 35 kt around this time. Winds become west and increase to 20
to 25 kt with gusts up to around 40 kt thereafter and through the
afternoon. Speeds begin to come down slowly this evening and
overnight, but gusts up to 30 kt persist into Friday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for quick changing conditions. Wet snow may mix
in at times with any rain showers, no accumulation is expected.
Peak westerly gusts Thursday afternoon may be as high as 45 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.
Saturday - Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR with a chance of rain showers, IFR in the afternoon
with rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gale warnings continue across all waters behind a strong cold front
today into this evening. After midnight gales will gradually give
way to small crafts for NY Harbor and much of LI Sound, and
eventually the south shore and eastern bays of LI. Marginal gale
conditions will continue for the ocean waters through most of Friday
morning, otherwise expect small craft conditions to prevail across
all waters through the day. Small craft conditions are likely to
persist through much of Friday night for the eastern ocean and
non- ocean waters with gusts at 25 to 30 kt. Conditions will
gradually abate into Saturday morning, with 25 kt gusts
confined to the ocean and eastern bays, and to the eastern ocean
waters daytime Saturday as seas fall to 4 ft.
After a lull Saturday night, SCA cond should return to the
eastern ocean waters and the eastern Sound/bays by daytime
Sunday and continuing into Monday as WSW-SW flow after a warm
frontal passage increases, with gusts over 25 kt and seas 5-7
ft. There may be a brief lull in these conditions late Sunday
night into Mon morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There remain no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-335-338.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345-350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JE/BG
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG