108
FXUS61 KOKX 051557
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1057 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A strong cold front moves through this afternoon, with a couple
of reinforcing cold frontal passage through Friday. The region
will remain in- between departing low pressure to the north and
high pressure to the southwest into Saturday. The high will then
slowly move off the Southeast coast this weekend as a warm
front passes well to the north. Another warm front is expected
to approach and pass through on Monday. A slow moving cold front
will then approach from the west from Tuesday into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cold front crossing east of the Hudson River will continue to
slide east through the region through early afternoon.
Scattered snow showers (embedded snow squalls across interior)
along the front will slide east through by 2pm. Brief whiteout
conditions with any isolated snow squalls across the interior
with a quick coating of snow possible on grassy and elevated
surfaces. Main threat is for areas above 500 ft. For the
city/coast more of a wet snow/rain mix.
More noticeable impact will be winds gusting higher immediately
behind the cold front. BUFKIT sounding and momentum transport
algorithm remains suggestive of 20 to 30 mph sustained winds
with frequent wind gusts 45 to 50 mph, with occasional 30-35 mph
sustained winds and gusts closer to 55 mph possible immediately
behind the front and particularly late afternoon into evening
behind re- inforcing cold frontal passage. Wind Advisory
remains in place for the entire are through 10pm.
Behind the cold frontal passage this afternoon into evening a
few flurries or a quick snow shower possible, especially north
and west. Also whatever can survive in terms of lake effect
induced streamers may briefly get into portions of Orange County
and perhaps Putnam and No. Fairfield for a bit later today into
this evening with trough/secondary cold frontal passage.
Temperatures are likely to hold steady behind cold frontal
passage today, and fall as the sun gets lower late in the
afternoon with strong cold air advection behind secondary cold
frontal passage.
Dry conditions expected overnight. Winds should only come down
gradually through the overnight period with sustained winds
closer to 15 to 20 mph and gusts closer to 30 to 35 mph. Thus,
blustery and cold conditions will continue into Friday morning
under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies for most of the area
with some stratcu at times further northwest. It will be the
coldest night and early morning of the season with respect to
the impacts of the wind. Wind chills are likely to get down into
the teens across a good portion of the area by early Friday
morning, and possibly a few upper single digit wind chills
across far W and NW portions of Orange County.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A secondary front / sfc trough pushes through Friday morning
reinforcing the cold air. This will lead to the coldest day of the
season thus far, especially when considering the wind. Day time max
temps will not do better than lower and middle 30s across most of
the area on a WNW wind at around 15 to 20 mph sustained, and gusts
of 30 to 35 mph. The wind will make it feel about 10 to 12 degrees
colder with wind chills during the afternoon only in the 20s region
wide. Mostly sunny skies are anticipated closer to the coast with a
few intervals of scattered stratcu, with more stratcu further to the
NW.
The winds will subside Friday night as the pressure gradient relaxes
some as the strong low pressure center exits Nova Scotia and
Southeastern Canada. The region will be in-between an elongated
trough of low pressure in Canada and high pressure over the
Tennessee Valley. Thus the winds should remain up enough to preclude
strong or widespread radiational cooling, therefore not expecting a
large spread in night time temperatures. Most places will get down
into the lower 20s for lows, with a few upper teens well north, and
middle and upper 20s across the metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The large upper trough that has been responsible for recent cold
wx will finally slide east this weekend, replaced by broad
ridging quickly propagating over from the Western states Sunday
and Monday. As this ridging slides east, deep layer SW flow
ahead of an amplifying trough over the nation`s mid section will
then take hold going into mid next week. Temps on Sat 5-8
degrees below avg on Sat will quickly moderate to slightly above
avg on Sunday as a warm front passes to the north and sfc high
pressure moves to the SE coast. As another warm front moves
directly toward the area and on Mon and lifts through by
evening, temps should modify further above normal on Mon, with
highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s, and a little warmer than that
for Mon-Tue with highs reaching the lower/mid 50s.
With the approach of the warm front on Mon, expect rain to become
likely through the day. If precip arrives early enough Mon morning
there is a slight chance of precip beginning briefly as -FZRA in the
valleys of Orange County.
With the area in the warm sector ahead of a slow moving cold front
aligned with the flow aloft going into mid week, capped any likely
or greater NBM PoP to 50 percent through the rest of the fcst
period. Timing of the front is uncertain, with the faster ECMWF
bringing it through before daybreak Wed, and the slower GFS
lagging until Wed afternoon out east.
Chance PoP continues into Wed and Wed night as fcst uncertainty
increases further regarding timing and track of a low coming out of
the Gulf States. Faster GFS starts bringing significant precip as
early as Wed night-Thu, while the ECMWF holds off until beyond
the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front passes this morning. The terminals will then
remain between strong low pressure to the northeast and high
pressure to the south and west through Friday.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. A few snow showers are
possible this morning with the cold front passage, mainly from
NYC terminals north and west. These may lower flight categories
briefly. Some rain may mix in, especially at NYC terminals.
Otherwise, a few spotty flurries or snow showers cannot be ruled
out this afternoon.
Winds will start strengthening late this morning with the
frontal passage. Wind direction will be WSW-W by afternoon with
speeds 20-25 kt gusting 35-40 kt in the afternoon. Winds should
weaken a bit after 00z as the direction becomes WNW, but remain
gusty overnight, 25-30 kt. WNW-NW winds 15-20 with gust 25-30 kt
expected on Friday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
A quick snow shower possible 15-17z, which could briefly lower
flight categories. Some rain may be mixed in as well.
Timing of strongest gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Peak gusts this afternoon may be as high as 45 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.
Saturday - Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR with a chance of rain showers, IFR in the afternoon
with rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Gale warnings continue across all waters behind a strong cold front
today into this evening. In response rough seas on the ocean
(8-13 ft) and LI Sound (3-7 ft) this afternoon into tonight.
After midnight gales will gradually give way to small crafts
for NY Harbor and much of LI Sound, and eventually the south
shore and eastern bays of LI. Marginal gale conditions will
continue for the ocean waters through most of Friday morning,
otherwise expect small craft conditions to prevail across all
waters through the day. Small craft conditions are likely to
persist through much of Friday night for the eastern ocean and
non- ocean waters with gusts at 25 to 30 kt. Conditions will
gradually abate into Saturday morning, with 25 kt gusts confined
to the ocean and eastern bays, and to the eastern ocean waters
daytime Saturday as seas fall to 4 ft.
After a lull Saturday night, SCA cond should return to the
eastern ocean waters and the eastern Sound/bays by daytime
Sunday and continuing into Monday as WSW-SW flow after a warm
frontal passage increases, with gusts over 25 kt and seas 5-7
ft. There may be a brief lull in these conditions late Sunday
night into Mon morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There remain no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A Low Water Advisory continues for the low tide cycle late this
afternoon / early this evening for NY Harbor, and for later in
the evening for Western LI Sound as strong W winds drop water
levels to 1.5 to 2 ft below MLLW..-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-335-338.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345-350-353-
355.
Low Water Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EST Friday for ANZ335.
Low Water Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ338.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...JE/NV
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JE/BG
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...