947
FXUS61 KOKX 060225
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
925 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through this evening, with a couple of
reinforcing cold frontal passages through Friday evening. The
region will remain in-between intense low pressure over
NewFoundland and high pressure to the southwest into Saturday.
High pressure passes to the south this weekend as a weak low
passes to the north on Sunday. A warm front pressure impacts the
region on Monday with low pressure. A slow moving cold front
will then approach from the west from Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Continued to lower winds speeds based on current observations.
This has prompted the cancellation of the Wind Advisory. There
may be isolated gusts that reach advisory criteria over the next
couple of hours, but it is not expected to be widespread.
Otherwise, look for dry, breezy, chilly conditions for the rest
of the night.
Polar upper low slides through northern New England tonight,
with associated trough axis crossing this evening. At the
surface, secondary cold front passes though by early evening
with reinforcing shot of cold air and invigoration of WNW winds.
BUFKIT soundings and HRRR wind gusts continued to suggest 20-30
gusts 45-50 mph through this evening, with occasional 30-35 with
gusts to 55 mph behind reinforcing cold frontal passage. Wind
Advisory remains in place for the entire area through 10pm.
Winds gradually come down overnight as pressure gradient
gradually weakens and low level lapse rates stabilizes, closer
to 15-20 gusts to 30-35 mph by early Friday Am.
Dry conditions expected overnight, with sct to locally bkn
strato cu under cyclonic flow.
Coldest wind chills of the season so far late tonight into
early Fri morning, with lower to mid teens for city/coast and
single digits interior.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Deep upper trough remains over the region on Friday, with
cyclonic flow around intense Nova Scotia low Friday AM giving
way to surface ridging building in from the SW late Fri/ Fri
Night.
Cold advection continues on gusty WNW flow (15-25 mph with
gusts of 30-35 mph) through the day Friday, with surface temps
likely hard pressed to get out of the 20s interior and above
freezing for the city/coast with 850mb temps dropping to close
to -15c. Windchills only rising into the upper teens interior
and lower 20s city/coast.
Otherwise, scattered to locally bkn strato-cu under slow to
relent cyclonic flow and approach of late day backside
shortwave/surface trough.
Winds slowly subside Fri Night with high pressure building to
the southwest, but still appears to be enough of a gradient and
low- level mixing to preclude widespread radiational cooling.
Most places will get down into the lower 20s, with upper teens
interior, and mid 20s for NYC/NJ metro. Windchills once again
dropping into the lower to mid teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* Chilly, dry Saturday.
* Warming Sunday into next week.
* Next round of rain on Monday.
* Another shot of getting wet mid-week, next week. Low chances for
frozen precip.
Heights aloft gradually rise through the weekend as a ridge builds
in from the west. Winds remain from the west 10-15 mph on Saturday,
gusting 15-20 mph. Cold air remains aloft, with highs only expected
to be in the mid-30s to around 40 with lows Saturday night in the
low-20s to low-30s. Saturday remains mostly sunny, but cloud cover
increases Saturday night as gradual warm air advection starts up at
850mb.
A weak surface low passes to the north in Canada on Sunday. Its far
enough removed from the area for most of us to remain dry, but a few
isolated light snow showers are possible for northern interior
locations closer to the low on Sunday. No accumulation expected.
Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-40s to low-50s with lows in the
upper-20s for the northern interior to near 40 for southern coastal
locations.
As a ridge centers over the region on Monday, as small shortwave
trough embedded within the the longwave ridge with pass through on
Monday. This occurs in tandem with a warm front advecting in
moisture from a low in the lower plains and gulf states as another
low deepens over the northern Great Lakes. Rain showers look likely
across the area due to warmer temperatures in place following the
warm frontal passage. The rain will taper Monday evening and early
night west to east.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night a trough approaches from the
west, which also pulls in a low from the souther plains and brings
it across the northeast. Widespread showers look likely, particularly
ahead of and along a frontal passage. Model guidance still varies on
the timing of the front, so exact timing for the best chance of
showers is still lower confidence, but the chance for rain looks
good. Warmer temperatures in place will prevent chances for frozen
precipitation until the exit of the front where a window of
opportunity for frozen precip is possible in the interior Wednesday
night. This, however, is still subject to change given this is at
the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The terminals will remain between strong low pressure to the
northeast and high pressure to the south and west through Friday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Strong, gusty W-WNW winds expected through this evening. Sustained
speeds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt are likely. Winds may
diminish somewhat overnight. WNW- NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts
25-30 kt are forecast on Friday, with winds diminishing late in
the afternoon, but still gusting 15 to 20 kt by Friday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
An isolated gust to 40 kt possible until around 02z.
Winds could be a bit weaker at times overnight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR. NW winds diminishing through the night,
gusts 15 to 20 kt early in the evening.
Saturday. VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Sunday. VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Monday: MVFR-IFR in showers.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gale warnings continue across all waters into tonight. In
response rough seas on the ocean (8-13 ft) and LI Sound (3-7 ft)
continue to build through this evening.
After midnight gales will gradually give way to small crafts for NY
Harbor and W LI Sound, and eventually the south shore and
eastern LI Sound and bays. Marginal gale conditions possible
for the ocean waters Friday morning, otherwise expect small
craft conditions to prevail across all waters through the day.
SCA winds relent on nearshore waters Fri evening, but likely
continue into early Sat Am for ocean waters.
Winds drop below 25 kts on Saturday with waves already below SCA-
level criteria. We remain below SCA levels until Sunday morning.
Waves on the ocean will build to 5-7 feet with wind gusts 25-30 kts.
WInds may also reach SCA levels on south shore bays and the sound
entrance and possibly the eastern sound. Winds and waves gradually
drop below SCA levels Sunday night. Sub-SCA conditions remain
thereafter through Tuesday except for waves coming close to 5 feet
on ocean waters Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through mid-week next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong W winds will drop water levels to 1.5 to 2 ft below MLLW
during times of low tide late this aft/eve, but appears
marginal for low water advisory.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-
353-355.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ335-338.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/NV
NEAR TERM...JP/BR/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BR/NV
HYDROLOGY...BR/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...