540
FXUS61 KOKX 060916
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
416 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will dominate through the weekend, although a
developing warm front may pass through or nearby to our north
Saturday night into Sunday. Weakening high pressure gives way
to an approaching frontal system Monday into Monday night. The
associated low moves east of the region Tuesday but another cold
front will be approaching from the west. This front slowly
moves across Wednesday into Wednesday night and then moves east
of the region Thursday. High pressure returns from the west
thereafter through Thursday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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There could be a flurry or two over the western fringe of the
forecast area before sunrise, otherwise, the flow aloft becomes less
cyclonic today and tonight with surface ridging from the south and
west. It`ll be breezy with a gusty westerly flow, but not as strong
as yesterday, and the gusts subside this evening. Temperatures will
be below normal with 850mb temps of -13 to -14C this afternoon.
Deterministic NBM for highs looked reasonable given these temps
aloft with a moderate westerly flow. Highs mostly in the lower and
middle 30s, which is about 10 degrees below normal. Some cloud cover
for part of the night and just enough of a pressure gradient may
hamper radiational cooling tonight, but temperatures should still
manage to bottom out in the 20s in most spots with teens well into
the interior and Pine Barrens Region. Wind chills in the teens early
this morning, then still only the lower and middle 20s this
afternoon, returning to the teens again late tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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We`ll still be under the influence of high pressure on Saturday,
although it appears that clouds will increase in the afternoon. This
will be in response to a developing warm front to our north and west
in association with weakening low pressure shifting east from the
Great Lakes. Associated isentropic lift increases along with
deepening moisture over the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday
morning. This brings a chance of light precip to the area - focused
more towards the north and east of the city. Warm nose due to the
warm advection aloft may cause the precip type to be a mixture of
sleet and snow. The precip threat ends Sunday morning as the front
shifts farther away to the north and east. The rest of the day and
Sunday night should then be dry as weak surface ridging occurs
between the departing low to the NE and a broad area of low pressure
well off to the west. Moderating high temperatures are on tap for
the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weather looks to remain active in the long term looking at the time
period of Monday through Thursday night of next week. Aloft, with
the main jet, models are indicating a phasing of the northern and
southern branches with a strengthening upper level trough Monday
into Tuesday well to the west of the region.
The trough will continue to slowly approach with associated upper
level jet intensifying form SW to NE Wednesday into Thursday. The
trough axis and jet stream appear to move east of region Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. This dip in the jet will allow for a
colder airmass to work into the local area towards the end of next
week.
At the surface, the area starts with weakening high pressure Monday.
This will quickly give way to an approaching frontal system. Its
warm front will be within the area Monday into Tuesday with the low
pressure center going east of the local area Tuesday into Wednesday.
However, another cold front will be approaching from the west for
midweek. The parent low with this front will be moving farther
within SE Canada and the cold front will be slowly moving across
Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Precipitation with the first system could start Monday morning and
timing will be quite important. Models generally indicate best
chances for precipitation will not arrive until afternoon and then
continue with high likelihood through the evening. Rain remains in
the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. The front moves east of the
region Thursday into Thursday night.
The only chances for wintry precipitation will be on the front side
of the approaching low pressure system early Monday across parts of
the interior with otherwise mainly rain. The other chance for wintry
precipitation will be on the backside of the cold front Wednesday
night into Thursday, when rain showers trend over to snow showers
with increasing cold air advection.
Temperatures overall trend from warmer then normal Monday through
Wednesday to colder than normal for next Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The terminals will remain between strong low pressure to the
northeast and high pressure to the south and west through Friday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Strong, gusty W-WNW winds expected through this evening. Sustained
speeds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt are likely. Winds may
diminish somewhat overnight. WNW- NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts
25-30 kt are forecast on Friday, with winds diminishing late in
the afternoon, but still gusting 15 to 20 kt by Friday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
An isolated gust to 40 kt possible until around 02z.
Winds could be a bit weaker at times overnight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR. NW winds diminishing through the night,
gusts 15 to 20 kt early in the evening.
Saturday. VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Sunday. VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Monday: MVFR-IFR in showers.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Gale warnings continue on the ocean waters through the pre-dawn
hours. SCA will be needed thereafter through at least tonight and
maybe into Saturday as well.
For the remaining waters, SCA conds through tonight, but there still
may be a gust or two up to 35kt over eastern LI Sound and Gardiners
Bay before sunrise today.
A brief period of sub-advisory conditions for all waters Saturday
evening, then winds increase again late at night into Sunday with
SCA conds redeveloping, especially on the ocean. Improving
conditions for Sunday night, but some parts of the ocean may still
be at advisory thresholds through the entire night.
Aside from potentially some lingering SCA levels seas on the eastern
ocean waters, sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the marine long
term forecast Monday through Tuesday night. The pressure gradient
overall will remain relatively weak with winds and seas
mostly staying below SCA thresholds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the middle of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM