359
FXUS61 KOKX 061215
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
715 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate through the weekend, although a
developing warm front may pass through or nearby to our north
Saturday night into Sunday. Weakening high pressure gives way
to an approaching frontal system Monday into Monday night. The
associated low moves east of the region Tuesday but another cold
front will be approaching from the west. This front slowly
moves across Wednesday into Wednesday night and then moves east
of the region Thursday. High pressure returns from the west
thereafter through Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
There could be a flurry or two over the western fringe of the
forecast in the next hour or so, otherwise, the flow aloft
becomes less cyclonic today and tonight with surface ridging
from the south and west. It`ll be breezy with a gusty westerly
flow, but not as strong as yesterday, and the gusts subside this
evening. Temperatures will be below normal with 850mb temps of
-13 to -14C this afternoon. Deterministic NBM for highs looked
reasonable given these temps aloft with a moderate westerly
flow. Highs mostly in the lower and middle 30s, which is about
10 degrees below normal. Some cloud cover for part of the night
and just enough of a pressure gradient may hamper radiational
cooling tonight, but temperatures should still manage to bottom
out in the 20s in most spots with teens well into the interior
and Pine Barrens Region. Wind chills in the teens early this
morning, then still only the lower and middle 20s this
afternoon, returning to the teens again late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
We`ll still be under the influence of high pressure on Saturday,
although it appears that clouds will increase in the afternoon. This
will be in response to a developing warm front to our north and west
in association with weakening low pressure shifting east from the
Great Lakes. Associated isentropic lift increases along with
deepening moisture over the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday
morning. This brings a chance of light precip to the area - focused
more towards the north and east of the city. Warm nose due to the
warm advection aloft may cause the precip type to be a mixture of
sleet and snow. The precip threat ends Sunday morning as the front
shifts farther away to the north and east. The rest of the day and
Sunday night should then be dry as weak surface ridging occurs
between the departing low to the NE and a broad area of low pressure
well off to the west. Moderating high temperatures are on tap for
the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weather looks to remain active in the long term looking at the time
period of Monday through Thursday night of next week. Aloft, with
the main jet, models are indicating a phasing of the northern and
southern branches with a strengthening upper level trough Monday
into Tuesday well to the west of the region.
The trough will continue to slowly approach with associated upper
level jet intensifying form SW to NE Wednesday into Thursday. The
trough axis and jet stream appear to move east of region Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. This dip in the jet will allow for a
colder airmass to work into the local area towards the end of next
week.
At the surface, the area starts with weakening high pressure Monday.
This will quickly give way to an approaching frontal system. Its
warm front will be within the area Monday into Tuesday with the low
pressure center going east of the local area Tuesday into Wednesday.
However, another cold front will be approaching from the west for
midweek. The parent low with this front will be moving farther
within SE Canada and the cold front will be slowly moving across
Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Precipitation with the first system could start Monday morning and
timing will be quite important. Models generally indicate best
chances for precipitation will not arrive until afternoon and then
continue with high likelihood through the evening. Rain remains in
the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. The front moves east of the
region Thursday into Thursday night.
The only chances for wintry precipitation will be on the front side
of the approaching low pressure system early Monday across parts of
the interior with otherwise mainly rain. This first wintry
precipitation will have some low level of warm air, warm nose,
making for the possibility of some freezing rain or sleet. This
would be for the interior parts of the region that will not warm
up as fast at the surface with southerly flow. The other chance
for wintry precipitation will be on the backside of the cold
front Wednesday night into Thursday, when rain showers trend
over to snow showers with increasing cold air advection. With
cold air advection across a greater vertical depth of the
atmosphere, this will be a scenario where precipitation types
will just be dependent on surface boundary layer and any wet
bulb cooling.
Temperatures overall trend from warmer then normal Monday through
Wednesday to colder than normal for next Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The terminals will remain between strong low pressure to the
northeast and high pressure to the south and west through this
evening.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
However, there is a low chance KSWF may have broken stratus
lower to MVFR, around 3kft, at times for today.
Gusty W-WNW winds expected through the TAF period. Sustained speeds
15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt are likely. Winds are expected to
more substantially diminish tonight, especially away from the
coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts could vary a few kts from TAF through today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday. VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Sunday. VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Monday: MVFR to IFR at times in rain. Possible wintry mix for
KSWF early Monday.
Tuesday: Increasing chances of rain day into night, expected to
occur at night. MVFR to IFR at times.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA has replaced the Gales on the water, and continues through noon
on Saturday. Still a gust or two possible up to 35 kt over the next
couple of hours, but advisory conditions should prevail. For the
remaining waters, SCA conds through at least tonight, but didn`t
have enough confidence to extend the advisory beyond that time.
A period of sub-advisory conditions for all waters Saturday
afternoon and evening, then winds increase again late at night into
Sunday with SCA conds redeveloping, especially on the ocean.
Improving conditions for Sunday night, but some parts of the ocean
may still be at advisory thresholds through the entire night.
Aside from potentially some lingering SCA levels seas on the eastern
ocean waters, sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the marine long
term forecast Monday through Tuesday night. The pressure gradient
overall will remain relatively weak with winds and seas
mostly staying below SCA thresholds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM