010
FXUS61 KOKX 061625
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the southwest of the area will dominate
through the weekend, although a developing warm front may pass
through or nearby to our north Saturday night into Sunday.
Another frontal system may impact the area Monday into Monday
night. A cold front approaches Tuesday and will move slowly
across Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure returns from the
west thereafter through Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Breezy and chilly conditions continue this afternoon across the
the Tri-State. The area remains between high pressure over the
south-central states and deep low pressure over southeastern
Canada. Winds will not be as strong as Thursday afternoon, but
still should have gusts 25 to as high as 35 mph at times. The
strongest winds may reside closer to the coast.
Temperatures will be below normal with 850mb temps
of -13 to -14C this afternoon. Deterministic NBM for highs
looked reasonable given these temps aloft with a moderate
westerly flow. Highs mostly in the lower and middle 30s, which
is about 10 degrees below normal. The breezy conditions will
make it feel like it is in the upper teens and 20s.
Some cloud cover for part of the night and just enough of a
pressure gradient may hamper radiational cooling tonight, but
temperatures should still manage to bottom out in the 20s in
most spots with teens well into the interior and Pine Barrens
Region. Wind chills in the teens early this morning, then still
only the lower and middle 20s this afternoon, returning to the
teens again late tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
We`ll still be under the influence of high pressure on Saturday,
although it appears that clouds will increase in the afternoon. This
will be in response to a developing warm front to our north and west
in association with weakening low pressure shifting east from the
Great Lakes. Associated isentropic lift increases along with
deepening moisture over the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday
morning. This brings a chance of light precip to the area - focused
more towards the north and east of the city. Warm nose due to the
warm advection aloft may cause the precip type to be a mixture of
sleet and snow. The precip threat ends Sunday morning as the front
shifts farther away to the north and east. The rest of the day and
Sunday night should then be dry as weak surface ridging occurs
between the departing low to the NE and a broad area of low pressure
well off to the west. Moderating high temperatures are on tap for
the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weather looks to remain active in the long term looking at the time
period of Monday through Thursday night of next week. Aloft, with
the main jet, models are indicating a phasing of the northern and
southern branches with a strengthening upper level trough Monday
into Tuesday well to the west of the region.
The trough will continue to slowly approach with associated upper
level jet intensifying form SW to NE Wednesday into Thursday. The
trough axis and jet stream appear to move east of region Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. This dip in the jet will allow for a
colder airmass to work into the local area towards the end of next
week.
At the surface, the area starts with weakening high pressure Monday.
This will quickly give way to an approaching frontal system. Its
warm front will be within the area Monday into Tuesday with the low
pressure center going east of the local area Tuesday into Wednesday.
However, another cold front will be approaching from the west for
midweek. The parent low with this front will be moving farther
within SE Canada and the cold front will be slowly moving across
Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Precipitation with the first system could start Monday morning and
timing will be quite important. Models generally indicate best
chances for precipitation will not arrive until afternoon and then
continue with high likelihood through the evening. Rain remains in
the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. The front moves east of the
region Thursday into Thursday night.
The only chances for wintry precipitation will be on the front side
of the approaching low pressure system early Monday across parts of
the interior with otherwise mainly rain. This first wintry
precipitation will have some low level of warm air, warm nose,
making for the possibility of some freezing rain or sleet. This
would be for the interior parts of the region that will not warm
up as fast at the surface with southerly flow. The other chance
for wintry precipitation will be on the backside of the cold
front Wednesday night into Thursday, when rain showers trend
over to snow showers with increasing cold air advection. With
cold air advection across a greater vertical depth of the
atmosphere, this will be a scenario where precipitation types
will just be dependent on surface boundary layer and any wet
bulb cooling.
Temperatures overall trend from warmer then normal Monday through
Wednesday to colder than normal for next Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The terminals will remain between strong low pressure to the
northeast and high pressure to the south and west through this
evening.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
However, there is a low chance KSWF may have broken stratus
lower to MVFR, around 3kft, at times into this afternoon.
Gusty W-WNW winds expected through the TAF period. Sustained speeds
15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt are likely. Winds are expected to
more substantially diminish tonight, especially away from the
coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts could vary a few kts from TAF through this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday. VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Sunday. VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Monday: MVFR to IFR at times in rain. Possible wintry mix for
KSWF early Monday.
Tuesday: Increasing chances of rain day into night, expected to
occur at night. MVFR to IFR at times.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue on the waters through tonight. A
gale gust or two cannot be ruled out this morning. Winds on the
Sound, Bays, and Harbor may fall below SCA levels tonight, but
will allow the SCA to go through 6am. The SCA on the ocean runs
through noon Saturday.
A period of conditions below SCA levels is then expected for
all waters Saturday afternoon and evening, then winds increase
again late at night into Sunday with SCA conds redeveloping,
especially on the ocean. Improving conditions for Sunday night,
but some parts of the ocean may still be at advisory thresholds
through the entire night.
Aside from potentially some lingering SCA levels seas on the eastern
ocean waters, sub-SCA conditions are forecast Monday through
Tuesday night. The pressure gradient overall will remain
relatively weak with winds and seas mostly staying below SCA
thresholds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM