835
FXUS61 KOKX 071254
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the southwest of the area will remain in control
today. A fast moving low pressure passes to the north and east
tonight into Sunday. Another frontal system then impacts the
area Monday into Monday night, followed by yet another complex
frontal system impacting the region through midweek. The
associated cold front moves across Wednesday night. High
pressure returns thereafter for the remainder of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure centered to our SW remains stretched into the forecast
area today. Clouds diminish during the latter half of this
morning, but then increase this afternoon. Not as breezy as it
has been for the past couple of days, but perhaps a few gusts
20-25 mph this morning. Deterministic NBM with minor adjustments
looked good for high temperatures, which are expected to be
about 5-8 degrees below normal.
Weakening low pressure shifts east from the Great Lakes towards
northern New England tonight. A warm front will likely set up north
of the area this evening. Warm advection/isentropic lift should help
lower and thicken clouds. The lift is weak, but most of the model
guidance signals potential for at least a broken band of light
precip overnight. The best potential for this precip appears to be
from the Lower Hudson Valley east-southeastward towards southern
Connecticut and eastern Long Island. With that said, PoPs remain
below the likely category. Thermal profiles are cold enough
initially with wet bulbing for some light snow. However, models
still show a warm nose around 3-6kft which probably allows for some
sleet as the precip is coming to end late tonight. Warmer surface
temperatures across portions of eastern Long Island bring rain into
the mix. Portions of Southeast CT should stay all light snow with
the colder air taking longer to dislodge across this area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry Sunday as weak surface ridging occurs between the departing low
to the NE and a broad area of low pressure well off to the west.
Breezy, but milder than the past several days with high temperatures
above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.
A warm front approaches from the SW Sunday night, in association with
a broad area of low pressure stretching from the upper MS Valley to
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A weak area of low pressure center
develops along this warm front as it passes through the forecast
area Monday night. Moisture out ahead of the warm front heads our
way with rain chances starting late Monday morning, but not becoming
likely until Monday afternoon with rain remaining likely into Monday
evening as the weak low center passing through. The rain should be
primarily on the light to moderate side with a total of quarter of
half inch of accumulation. Temperatures remain above normal on
Monday in spite of the rain and clouds with highs ranging from the
mid 40s inland to the low 50s for coastal areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Amplified pattern shaping up for Tuesday through Wednesday.
Deepening upper level trough with strong SW to NE jet will
strengthen a frontal system approaching the area. The associated
warm front moves across Tuesday with an associated cold front moving
across Wednesday night.
The timeframe of Tuesday through Wednesday expected to have rain
across the region much of the time period. Wednesday night, the
precipitation becomes more intermittent, more in the way of showers.
With a strong cold air advection behind the front, potential for
mixing with snow and for some pure snow showers across the region
before all precipitation comes to a close.
Dynamic forcing appears with enhanced lift Wednesday will have some
potential for heavy rain. With how dynamic the flow is, model trends
will have to be analyzed for any changes in trough positioning and
low pressure. Also, if the low pressure deepens more than forecast,
resulting in further tightening of the pressure gradient, this would
make for higher winds than forecast. Current model consensus shows
the low just starting its deepening process as it traverses over the
local region Wednesday afternoon with more rapid deepening occurring
once the low is north and east of the region Wednesday night into
early Thursday.
Dry conditions expected thereafter through Friday as high pressure
builds in from the west. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through
Wednesday and then below normal Wednesday night through Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For today, the region remains between high pressure to the south
and west and low pressure to the north and west. The low gets
relatively closer to the area tonight.
For the TAF period, mainly VFR conditions are expected. With the
approach of the low tonight, a few snow showers are possible
with some sleet possible as well. CT terminals and KSWF have the
better chance of seeing these snow showers with chances for
MVFR. Low chance of brief IFR.
Winds remain gusty through much of the TAF period. Westerly flow
near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt expected much of today as
well as tonight into early Sunday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional this morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 kt, decreasing late in the
afternoon. Wind direction SW, becoming more W late morning into
afternoon.
Monday: MVFR to IFR at times in rain.
Tuesday: Increasing chance of rain late Tue into Tue night,
expected to occur at night. MVFR to IFR at times.
Wednesday: MVFR to IFR. Possible sub-IFR at times. Rain
day into early evening with rain and snow showers for the rest
of the night. SW gusts 15-20 kt during day. W-NW gusts 15-20 kt
at night. Some NW gusts up to 25-30 kt possible at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions for the non-ocean waters. Winds will however
pick up tonight into Sunday as an area of low pressure passing to
the north tightens the pressure gradient. SCA is therefore in effect
late this evening through Sunday afternoon.
On the ocean, current SCA remains posted through noon today, but
another SCA will likely be needed tonight into Sunday with the same
reasoning for the other waters. Gusts may approach gale force, but
not enough coverage or length of time for gale warning consideration
at this time. SCA conds then continue on the ocean through Sunday
night. Seas subside below 5 ft by Monday morning and likely remain
below 5 ft through Monday night. Gusts may however briefly approach
25 kt as relatively weak area of low pressure passing through
attempts to strengthen.
Aside from some lingering eastern ocean SCA conditions Tuesday into
Tuesday night, below SCA conditions expected. Ocean SCA conditions
become probable for Wednesday with all waters likely having SCA
conditions Wednesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic issues expected through Tuesday. Heavy rain possible
at times on Wednesday with the potential for minor flooding in low
lying and poor drainage areas. Model potential for PWATs of near
1.3 to 1.4 inches Wednesday, which would be above the 90th
percentile and around the max for OKX sounding climatology for
December 11th.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM